Don't be fooled by the drop in oil prices! This could be the biggest "false positive" in recent times.

Let me share the most core point:
👉 This drop in oil prices is very likely a false positive.
Why?
Because the market is only seeing one thing now:
 a ceasefire.
But it’s ignoring three more important things:

1️⃣ The ceasefire is temporary
2️⃣ The negotiation results are unknown
3️⃣ Geopolitical conflicts have not been resolved
In other words:

👉 The risk is just "delayed," not "eliminated."
What is the most classic pattern in financial markets?
👉 Good news materializes → prices fall
👉 Bad news materializes → prices rebound
This current wave is very likely just "good news materializing."
So if you ask:

Where will oil prices go next?
My judgment is:

👉 Short-term volatility
👉 Medium-term depends on negotiations
👉 Long-term still leaning strong
To sum up the overall picture in one sentence:

This is not a trend reversal, but a "sentiment shakeout."
#特朗普同意停火两周