Source: Wall Street Information Circle

The market has shifted from "war prices" to "negotiation prices."

At 3:00 according to East Asian time, a message appeared that changed the direction of the global markets.

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif posted on X, sincerely asking U.S. President Trump to extend the deadline by another two weeks to advance diplomatic efforts. He also asked Iran to "reopen the Strait of Hormuz as a gesture of goodwill" for the same two-week period.

Pakistan's "bilateral request" was quite skillful: not only does it "ask" Trump to put it off, but it also "asks" Iran, on equal terms, to open the strait for two weeks, giving both sides a "way out" and "saving face." There is no requirement to unconditionally withdraw the threat; the wording "diplomacy needs time" is used. At the same time, Iran receives a counter-condition—to open the strait—which is precisely Trump's main demand. If Iran agrees, Trump will be able to claim that his "maximum pressure" worked and thereby delay the strike in a way that can be presented as justified.

Before this news, there was no hope in Trump’s words for any softening; he even wrote: "One civilization will disappear forever and never return." Because of Trump’s threats, Iran stopped direct communication with the United States. Who could have thought that the key turning point would come from a third party? The market sharply reduced the likelihood of a "destructive situation."

In terms of the timing of the posting, this looks more like coordinated action with Trump, since it saved the U.S. stock market.

Just half an hour later, the White House responded, saying that Trump had reviewed Pakistan's proposal to extend the deadline for Iran by another two weeks and would give his answer.

This news changed the trend in the markets, showing a classic reversal:

- The U.S. stock market recouped most of its intraday losses, while gold and U.S. bonds rose at the same time.

- Oil prices fell sharply; U.S. oil dropped below 110 dollars.

- The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields declined.

Because of fear of the worst-case scenario, markets overreact even to the slightest positive.

Three hours later, (6:00 according to East Asian time), Trump posted: I agree to suspend the bombing and attacks on Iran for two weeks; this will be a bilateral ceasefire. We received ten proposals from Iran and consider them a possible basis for negotiations.

After this news, oil prices fell even further; U.S. oil briefly dropped to 100 dollars.

Although this news does not change the trend, it opens a "trading window"—it reduces the market’s risk assessment of the loss of control in the short term, at least "for today, no decision will have to be made."

But caution is necessary: if negotiations reach a dead end within those two weeks, the market will face a stronger bilateral drop due to "the more hope there is—the stronger the disappointment."