Hexun Investment Advisor Jin Yonghu: Is there a logic to buying more as prices fall?

People often say, “buy more when it keeps falling,” but the key question is: why should you buy more when it’s falling? You must have technical conditions and logic to support that confidence. So, regarding the current market, does it actually fit the “buy-the-dip when it keeps dropping” idea?

I’ll break it down for everyone across three dimensions. First, let’s look at the wave structure. After this round of decline, we can see a one-wave, two-wave, three-wave, and four-wave sequence—right now it’s clearly already entered the end stage of the fifth wave. The fifth wave doesn’t necessarily have to make a fresh low, but structurally, what does it already match? The pattern of a bottom forming and a rebound happening at any time. This is the first support wave that supports the “buy more as it drops” approach.

Second, let’s look at the moving average support level. This decline is about to fall to where? Just right toward the moving average of the year line. What is the year line? It’s the strong support for the broader index—it’s the dividing line between bull and bear markets. If it drops to this level, the support strength is very strong. This is the second reason.

Third, what about the third point? Third, let’s check whether the indicator is oversold and whether there is any hidden bullish divergence at the bottom. We often use MACD for this. First, let’s take a look at the daily timeframe MACD—the signal isn’t obvious. Then we look at the smaller timeframes: 60 minutes, 90 minutes, and also 120 minutes. You’ll find that the more it drops, the more the indicators start to diverge right away. It’s essentially turning into an oversold situation. Once an oversold state appears, as soon as it drops a bit more, the divergence shows up—meaning the rebound has a relatively high probability.

So, putting it all together: the wave structure is at the end stage, the year line has strong support, and on multiple timeframes the indicators show divergence as soon as it drops, and it becomes oversold. From an index perspective, the risk-reward right now is extremely high, and it fully matches this “buy more when it keeps falling” structure. Of course, if there are external negative catalysts that dump pressure and cause the index to step down with the trend, that could actually be an even better “low-buy” opportunity. I need to remind you of one thing: what I’m talking about is index-level logic. Individual stocks may not be perfectly synchronized with the index’s rhythm. But recently, if they are adjusting along with the index—for example, sectors like semiconductors and technology, as well as defense/military—stocks that have tracked the broader market down and have been “fully sold off,” then I think the opportunity ahead is still fairly clear. To sum up simply: “buy more when it keeps falling” is wave-pattern + moving-average + multi-timeframe divergence—a resonance of three conditions.

（责任编辑：张洋 HN080）

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