Trump Trading Manual: Now entering Step 9

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Original Author: Zhao Ying

Original Source: Wall Street Insights

The achievement of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement is unfolding with precision according to a script that has been repeatedly validated.

The Kobeissi Letter, a newly reported view from the U.S.-based independent macro research institution, says that with Trump announcing a two-week ceasefire agreement among the United States, Iran, and Israel, the ninth step of the “conflict script” it tracks has officially arrived—namely, the agreement being reached and the narrative framework being constructed. This arrival is about 10 days later than the institution had previously expected.

The Kobeissi Letter says that based on Trump’s trading handbook, within Trump’s framework, every major confrontation ultimately ends with a narrative of “extracting concessions through maximum pressure.”

This development’s potential impact on the market cannot be ignored. The Kobeissi Letter notes that the tenth step—i.e., the market violently repricing following the official announcement of the agreement—will come within the next few weeks. At that time, investors who have long held defensive positions will face pressure to quickly close positions under duress; the stock market could see a sharp surge, while oil prices may rapidly fall as expectations for the reopening of shipping lanes become established.

Ceasefire and tariff pause: the same logic

According to CCTV News, citing messages from the Iranian side in the early hours of the 8th local time, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has invited delegations from Iran and the United States to travel to Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital, to hold negotiations. Shehbaz Sharif also said that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire will take effect at 3:30 a.m. on the 8th Iranian time (8:00 a.m. Beijing time on the 8th). Trump said that this ceasefire window will be used to “finalize and facilitate” the signing of a durable peace agreement among the parties.

The Kobeissi Letter draws a parallel between this two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire and the “90-day tariff pause” announced by Trump in April 2025, arguing that the two are highly similar in nature.

On April 9, 2025, amid severe turbulence in the bond market, Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs on most trade partners. In the following weeks, the U.S.-China trade agreement was quickly implemented, and the market did not retest the prior lows. The Kobeissi Letter points out that the timing of this ceasefire announcement is almost exactly one year apart from the above tariff pause.

The institution believes this pattern is not accidental. Since taking office in January 2025, Trump has followed a highly consistent negotiating logic across the tariff war, negotiations involving Venezuela, talks about Greenland, and the Iran issue: verbal pressure, maximum pressure in exchange for concessions, and finally wrapping up with a “deal.”

Step Nine: building the agreement narrative

According to the Kobeissi Letter’s outline of a 10-step “conflict script,” the core of step nine is the agreement being reached and the construction of the narrative framework.

The institution notes that within Trump’s framework, each major confrontation ultimately ends with a narrative of “extracting concessions through maximum pressure.” Whether it is trade agreements with Canada, the European Union, and India, corporate negotiations in sectors like Intel and rare earths, or multiple conflicts that Trump helped bring to an end in 2025—this pattern has been validated.

On the Iran issue, The Kobeissi Letter believes that if the Iranian government cannot be toppled, the final agreement may involve a ceasefire arrangement linked to the nuclear issue, a regional security framework with attached implementation mechanisms, or a sanctions adjustment plan conditional on compliance benchmarks. The institution emphasizes that “the importance of the specific architecture is far greater than the timing and narrative framework.”

Step Ten: waiting for violent repricing

The Kobeissi Letter warns investors that market repricing after an agreement is announced is often sudden rather than gradual.

The reason is that market participants are currently broadly positioned defensively—energy exposure is on the high side, stock risk has been compressed, and volatility remains elevated due to persistent implicit uncertainty. Once uncertainty dissipates abruptly, these positions will be closed quickly, creating a concentrated market shock.

Citing historical cases from April, August, and October 2025, as well as January 2026, the institution notes that after each tariff pause or framework agreement announcement, the stock market has seen sharp surges, while oil prices have rapidly fallen as expectations for the reopening of shipping lanes become established. The Kobeissi Letter concludes: “Pattern recognition has extremely high value for profitability in this market.”