Trump Trading Manual: Now Entering Step Nine

Original author: Zhao Ying

Original source: Wall Street Insights

The achievement of a ceasefire deal between Iran and the US is unfolding with precise progression according to a script that has been repeatedly validated.

The Kobeissi Letter, a new update from the independent U.S. macro research firm, states that, as Trump announced that the U.S., Iran, and Israel have reached a two-week ceasefire agreement, step nine of the “conflict script” it tracks has officially arrived, namely, the coming—agreement on the deal and the construction of the narrative framework—arrives about 10 days later than the firm had previously expected.

The Kobeissi Letter says that, based on Trump’s deal playbook, each major confrontation within Trump’s framework ultimately ends with a narrative of “extreme pressure in exchange for concessions.”

This development’s potential impact on markets cannot be ignored. The Kobeissi Letter notes that step ten—i.e., the market’s violent repricing after the agreement is officially announced—will arrive within the coming weeks. At that time, investors who have long been in defensive positions will face pressure to rapidly close positions under duress; stocks may see a sudden surge, while oil prices could quickly fall as expectations for the reopening of shipping lanes become firmly established.

Ceasefire and tariff pause: the same logic

According to China Central Television News, citing a report from Iran’s side in the early hours of the 8th local time, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has invited representatives from Iran and the United States to travel to Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad, to hold negotiations. Shehbaz Sharif also said that the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran will take effect at 3:30 a.m. Iran time on the 8th (8 a.m. Beijing time on the 8th). Trump said that this ceasefire window will be used to “finalize and facilitate” the signing of a durable peace agreement among the parties.

The Kobeissi Letter draws a parallel between this two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire and Trump’s “90-day tariff pause” announced in April 2025, arguing that the two are highly similar in nature.

On April 9, 2025, amid violent turmoil in the bond market, Trump announced a suspension of tariff increases on most trading partners for 90 days. In the following weeks, the U.S.-China trade agreement was quickly implemented, and the market did not retest the prior lows. The Kobeissi Letter points out that the timing of this ceasefire announcement differs by almost exactly one full year from the aforementioned tariff pause.

The firm believes this pattern is not coincidental. Since Trump took office in January 2025, he has followed a highly consistent negotiation logic on the tariff war, the Venezuela issue, the Greenland negotiations, and the Iran question: verbal pressure, extreme pressure in exchange for concessions, and ultimately ending with a “deal.”

Step nine: the construction of the agreement narrative

Based on the Kobeissi Letter’s outline of the 10-step “conflict script,” step nine’s core is the agreement on the deal and the construction of the narrative framework.

The firm says that each major confrontation within Trump’s framework ultimately ends with a narrative of “extreme pressure in exchange for concessions.” Whether it is trade agreements with, for, the EU, and India, or corporate negotiations in the Intel and rare earth sectors, or multiple conflicts that Trump helped bring to an end in 2025—this pattern has been confirmed.

On the Iran question, The Kobeissi Letter believes that if the Iranian government is not toppled, the final agreement may involve a ceasefire arrangement linked to the nuclear issue, a regional security framework with accompanying enforcement mechanisms, or a sanctions adjustment plan conditioned on compliance benchmarks. The firm emphasizes that “the importance of the specific architecture far exceeds the timing and the narrative framework.”

Step ten: waiting for violent repricing

The Kobeissi Letter warns investors that the market repricing after the agreement is announced is often sudden rather than gradual.

The reason is that market participants are currently generally in defensive positions—energy exposure is too high, stock risks have already been compressed, and volatility remains elevated due to persistent hidden uncertainty. Once uncertainty suddenly dissipates, these positions will rapidly be closed, creating a concentrated market shock.

Citing historical cases from April, August, October 2025, and January 2026, the firm notes that after each tariff pause or framework agreement is announced, the stock market sees a sharp and sudden rally, while oil prices drop rapidly as expectations for the reopening of shipping lanes become firmly established. The Kobeissi Letter concludes: “Pattern recognition has extremely high profitability value in this market.”