Trump Trading Manual: Now entering Step 9

The Iran–US ceasefire agreement is unfolding with precise accuracy according to a script that has been repeatedly tested and verified.

The latest update from the U.S. independent macro research firm The Kobeissi Letter says that as Trump announced that the U.S., Iran, and Israel have reached a two-week ceasefire agreement, the ninth step of its tracked “conflict script” has officially arrived—namely, the agreement being reached and the narrative framework being constructed. This comes about 10 days later than the firm had previously expected.

The Kobeissi Letter states that, based on Trump’s deal-making playbook, every major confrontation within Trump’s framework ultimately ends with the narrative framing of “extreme pressure in exchange for concessions.”

This development’s potential impact on markets cannot be ignored. The Kobeissi Letter points out that the tenth step—i.e., the market’s violent repricing after the agreement is formally announced—will arrive in the coming weeks. At that time, investors who have been holding defensive positions will face pressure to rapidly close positions under compulsion; the stock market could see a sharp surge, while oil prices could fall rapidly once expectations for the reopening of shipping lanes become firmly established.

Ceasefire and tariff pause: the same logic

According to China Central Television (CCTV) News, citing information from Iran as of early on the 8th local time, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has invited delegations from Iran and the United States to hold talks in Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital. Shehbaz Sharif also said that the Iran–U.S. ceasefire would take effect at 3:30 a.m. Iran time on the 8th (8:00 a.m. Beijing time on the 8th). Trump said this ceasefire window will be used to “finalize and help bring about” the signing of a durable peace agreement among the parties.

The Kobeissi Letter compares this two-week Iran–U.S. ceasefire with the “90-day tariff pause” that Trump announced in April 2025, arguing that the two are highly similar in nature.

On April 9, 2025, amid violent turbulence in the bond market, Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs on most trading partners. In the weeks that followed, a U.S.–China trade agreement was quickly put in place, and the market did not retest the previous lows. The Kobeissi Letter notes that the timing of this ceasefire announcement is almost exactly one year apart from the tariff pause mentioned above.

The firm believes this pattern is not coincidental. Since taking office in January 2025, Trump has followed a highly consistent negotiation logic across the tariff war, the Venezuela situation, the Greenland negotiations, and the Iran issue: applying verbal pressure, applying extreme pressure in exchange for concessions, and ultimately wrapping things up with a “deal.”

Step Nine: Constructing the ceasefire agreement narrative

According to The Kobeissi Letter’s 10-step “conflict script,” the core of Step Nine is the construction of the narrative framework alongside the achievement of the agreement.

The firm notes that every major confrontation within Trump’s framework ultimately ends with the narrative framing of “extreme pressure in exchange for concessions.” Whether it is trade agreements with the U.S., the EU, and India, corporate negotiations in the semiconductor and rare earth sectors like Intel and rare-earth-related companies, or multiple conflicts that Trump helped bring to an end in 2025—this pattern has been validated.

On the Iran issue, The Kobeissi Letter believes that if the Iranian government cannot be toppled, the final agreement may involve ceasefire arrangements linked to the nuclear issue, a regional security framework with附带 execution mechanisms, or a sanctions adjustment proposal conditioned on compliance benchmarks. The firm emphasizes that “the importance of the specific architecture is far greater than the timing and the narrative framework.”

Step Ten: Waiting for the violent market repricing

The Kobeissi Letter warns investors that the market repricing after an agreement is announced is often sudden rather than gradual.

The reason is that market participants are generally in defensive positions—energy exposure is on the high side, equity risk has been compressed, and volatility remains elevated due to persistent implicit uncertainty. Once uncertainty suddenly dissipates, these positions will be rapidly closed out, creating a concentrated market shock.

Citing historical cases from April 2025, August 2025, October 2025, and January 2026, the firm points out that after each tariff pause or the announcement of a framework agreement, the stock market has seen a substantial, rapid surge, while oil prices have fallen quickly as expectations for the reopening of shipping lanes become established. The Kobeissi Letter concludes: “Pattern recognition has extremely high profit value in this market.”

Risk notice and disclaimer

        The market involves risk; investments require caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it consider any particular user’s special investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Invest at your own risk; responsibility rests with you.