April 7, 2026 Convertible Bond Portfolio Adjustment

Investing is a popularity contest. Buying when demand is at its peak is the most dangerous time—by then, all positive factors and viewpoints have already been priced in, and no new buyers will ever appear..

The safest investment with the greatest profit potential is to buy when nobody likes it. Give it time—once the issue becomes popular, its price can only move in one direction: up!

At the current stage, my personal convertible bond (转债) position ratio is not high (about 45% of my overall position). I’m near the lower end of my holdings. To deal with the possibility of still seeing new highs, I’m not planning to actively reduce positions first. Last week I added a bit; in this year’s first three months alone, the maximum drawdown is already 8.2%, which is more than the whole of last year. This year is a year of investing not being calm…

Yesterday’s market performance:

In the prior trading day: convertible bonds up, A-shares down, U.S. stocks up, FTSE A50 up. U.S. stocks were up slightly last night. The already-opened Korean and Japanese stock markets were also up slightly. As for whether A-shares will follow today and by how much, I don’t know. I expect A-shares to rise slightly today. Convertible bonds will trade sideways. External factors are still very significant. I’ll watch whether convertible bonds can hold up today. In terms of the recent strategy, overall the situation hasn’t stabilized—reduce operations. Don’t increase positions or rotate too quickly. If your position is very low, you can start gradually rotating into below 50%…

The convertible bond index fell from 2090 on February 13, 2023 to 1753 on February 5, 2024. Then to the current level of 2560: the current median is 134.8, the “temperature” is 82.9 degrees. There are 222 convertible bonds above 130 yuan, 3 more than the previous day, accounting for 64.7%;; below 110 yuan there are 11, 1 fewer than the previous day. Prices reached the lowest 0/ highest 1; April: 1 green and 2 red for convertible bonds. Trading volume for convertible bonds was 66.1 billion yuan, 1.4 billion less than the prior trading day. The turnover rate is 13.4%, and we’re down to 60 billion for the second day. The convertible bond index rose by 5 points to 2560. The average price was 151.6, up 0.8 from the previous day. The median premium is 39.5%, up 4 from the previous day. A-share trading volume was 1.67T yuan, 100 billion less than the previous day. Yesterday opened flat, rallied then pulled back, and ended up slightly higher. The “temperature” of convertible bond sentiment is still acceptable; with T trades, maintain an appropriate position size;

Yesterday, 思特 led with a gain of 13.4%; trading concentration for convertible bonds increased. The top 5 by trading volume accounted for convertible bonds’ total trading volume rising from 21.9% to 31%. The highest single bond’s trading volume was 7.6 billion. Most issues saw increased activity. The number of issues with trading volume below 10 million rose from the previous day’s 5 to 5; accounting for 1.5% of market issues, the lowest amount moved from 6.97 million to 6.61 million yuan…

Today’s convertible bond and market-related information:

In the prior day, convertible bonds opened flat, rallied then pulled back, and rose slightly. Trading volume decreased. The premium rate surged. Today is expected to fall slightly; convertible bonds still show no sign of stabilizing—it’s either a big rally or a big drop. There’s an opportunity for thematic speculation. Overall convertible bond prices and premium rates are both high, and you can do T trades…

凌钢, 维尔, last trading day; 光力, 中宠2, last conversion day; 博士 convertible bond: [Listing]; 埃泰克: new shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [Subscription]; 恒道科技: new shares on the Beijing Stock Exchange [Subscription]; 寿22 convertible bond: no reset…

山东章鼓: due to false financial record disclosures in the company’s annual report, the company’s stock will be subject to other risk warnings; trading was halted on April 7. 明新旭腾: shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 2% of the shares. 双良节能: the company received an administrative penalty decision. 仙鹤股份: one of the company’s actual controllers is suspected of conducting short-swing trades and received a notice of filing for investigation from the CSRC. 豪威集团: plans to repurchase 0.8 billion–1.0 billion yuan of shares to be used for employee share ownership or incentives. 文科: signed a contract worth 50.81 million yuan. 豪威: plans to repurchase 0.8–1.0 billion yuan of shares for equity incentives…

Today, 赛特 is about one day away from meeting the possibility of an accelerated redemption / call triggering. Today, 宝莱祥和 is about one day away from meeting the possibility to trigger a reset downward…

Today, 0 new convertible bonds are listed, 2 new stock subscriptions, 0 convertible bond subscriptions. Today to watch: whether 思特 convertible bond can hold up, etc.

思特: a computing power bank concept. The underlying stock is at the daily limit up. Small-cap, short time to maturity. Focus today. 超达, 中贝, etc. have good trends—keep watching. Also watch lower-priced issues like 恒锋, 海波, 姚记 for position-rotation alternatives…

Information roundup:
1: During the holiday, there are no obvious changes in the Iran-U.S. situation;
2: Expected hotspots: Computing power (奥飞, 中贝, 亿田); Power grid equipment (金05, 精达, 华辰, 嘉泽, 煜邦); Space solar (双良, 福22, 奥维, 帝尔, 瑞科, 天23, 隆22); AI applications (风语, 鼎捷, 声迅, 集智, 润达, 冠中, 姚记, 科蓝, 思特, 普联); Commercial aerospace (广联, 再22, 神宇, 盟升, 航宇); Chemical industry (锦鸡, 赫达, 齐翔2); Chips (茂莱, 路维, 汇成, 晶瑞2, 安集, 阳谷); Photoresist (晶瑞2, 华特, 华懋, 强力); In addition, keep关注 other concepts such as humanoid robots…

The following are my preferred convertible bonds from last weekend. Updates are weekly, not daily: (personal record of selected bonds; not investment advice). Since the median is at a high level, I loosened the selection criteria appropriately! Overall quality improved compared to last week. All of them consider the ability to withstand volatility—of course, assuming you’re still bullish on the outlook, and you’re still planning to hold part of your convertible bond position. I select relatively lower-priced issues and relatively small-cap ones. I try to choose active issues with richer concepts—these are for “spreading the pancake” allocation, not recommendations for a single holding: (pure debt-like issues also aren’t recommended)

1: Convertible bonds of micro-cap around 130 yuan (within 300 million) can be included in the list:
万讯, 山石, 科蓝, 聚合, 丝路, 易瑞, 九典2, 恒锋 …

2: Micro-cap under 2 hundred million within 150 yuan. Volatility downward is limited, can drive premium, high upside limit, less drawdown. Exclude issues that may be subject to an accelerated redemption recently:
艾录, 海波, 京源 …

3: Relatively low-priced, low-premium issues. Price around 140, premium around 30. Remaining term of 0.5–5.5 years. Good for swing trading:

强力, 威唐, 超声, 金埔, 皖天, 蓝天, 海顺…

4: Relatively low-priced “charge” team, around 150, to ensure a certain risk-reward ratio, within 500 million. Premium around 20:

万顺2, 丰山, 丽岛 …

5: Pure aggressive type. Premium rate around 15, around 160. Size 400 million. Exclude those that may have accelerated redemption within 2 weeks:
None …

6: Pure defensive type. Premium rate not particularly high, around 70. Not fully relying on downward reset. Within 1 billion in market cap. Yield around -3. Try to have a variety of concepts:

共同, 科思, 浙建, 海能, 回天, 裕兴, 东亚, 志特, 东宝…

7: Personally watch the more active types. Concepts are richer. Price isn’t too high. Flexibility is still okay. Usually around 140…

科蓝, 力合, 晶瑞2, 恒锋, 宏微, 铭利, 长海, 正元2, 三角, 华兴, 姚记, 兴瑞, 丽岛 …

Recently, convertible bonds have adjusted. Some have started to meet the conditions for accelerated redemption for several days, while some may not meet them. The premium rates have already been crushed. For example: 帝欧, 花园, 华兴, 威唐, 航新, 三角, 艾迪, 长海, 赛特, 永02…

In the current environment, accelerated redemption suppression is quite obvious, which leads to limited upper bounds. Therefore I try not to choose issues that are too expensive…

Overall strategy: don’t do deep research, don’t concentrate, spread out—ride volatility, “whack-a-mole” mode. Use width instead of depth, while also guarding against risks. Aim for average returns. Condition sheets and grid sheets can be used together. Make as much use of volatility as possible. I don’t recommend based on a single holding. Also, all selected convertible bonds are for my personal summary, not investment recommendations. Investing is risky; when entering the market, be cautious.

When doing convertible bonds, don’t forget the original intention. Convertible bonds, so far as I can see, are currently very good options for retail investors. Investing in convertible bonds is a marathon—you must stick to the right path and stay away from a speculation mindset. This is the truth, and also cause and effect. All forms of doing have the nature of a dream illusion, like bubbles in water, like dew and also like lightning. One should act as such; and one should not dwell anywhere, and yet give rise to one’s mind. Even a water droplet, though small, will gradually fill and become a grand thing…