The Middle East conflict has spread to clothing, bread, trash bags... It's not just "oil" prices that are rising.

This round of tensions in the Middle East has been going on for more than a month. Passage through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted, triggering a surge in energy prices and rippling through every stage of production, creating shocks to global supply chains.

What impact do Middle East tensions have on fields such as energy, petrochemicals, logistics, agriculture, and finance? If disruption to passage through the Strait of Hormuz becomes prolonged, what chain reactions will it set off?

The Strait of Hormuz blockade tears open a crude oil supply gap

Global energy markets roil further

• Daily shortfall of 10 million to 16 million barrels! Global energy “main artery” in crisis

CCTV correspondent Gao Yan: The Strait of Hormuz is the vital throat for global oil supply. According to the International Energy Agency, or IEA, in its “Oil Market Report” released in March this year, in 2025 as a whole, the Strait of Hormuz transports a total of about 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products on average, accounting for 25% of global seaborne oil trade; it also handles around 20% of global LNG transportation, serving as a core route for natural gas exports from Gulf countries such as Qatar and the UAE.

In terms of flow, more than 70% of the oil passing through the strait is shipped to Asian markets. The share of crude oil imported through this route is 90% for Japan and 95% for South Korea. The IEA estimates that as of the end of March, disruption to passage through the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in a global crude oil supply shortfall of 10 million to 16 million barrels per day.

• Releasing strategic petroleum reserves cannot curb the rapid spike in international oil prices

Although the IEA launched last month what it said is the largest-ever strategic petroleum reserve release plan, with a total scale of more than 400 million barrels, it still cannot bring down the rapid rise in international oil prices. Brent crude and New York light sweet crude futures are currently at high levels, having surged by at least 60% compared with before the outbreak of the conflict. European Dutch TTF natural gas futures for the front-month contract have recently hit a high of 69 euros per megawatt-hour, double the level before the conflict.

CCTV correspondent Gao Yan: In a research report released recently, the international credit rating agency Fitch stated that if the Middle East conflict continues through the end of June this year, the world economy would grow by 0.8 percentage points less in 2024. The report expects that U.S. real GDP growth in 2026 will fall from the recent forecast of 2.2% to 1.5%; the eurozone’s economic growth this year will drop from the previous forecast of 1.3% to less than 1%; and emerging market countries will generally face challenges such as disruptions to supply chains and rising debt risks.

Synthetic fiber prices rise; chemical fiber companies adjust production flexibly

China’s textile industry holds a leading position globally. As synthetic fibers, the core raw material for the textile industry, are directly linked to crude oil prices, how has the conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran affected domestic chemical fiber companies’ production?

CCTV correspondent Yang Zixun: As crude oil prices rise and drive up synthetic fiber prices, the overall price of polyester has risen by more than 10% over the past month.

A person in charge of a chemical fiber company in Shengze Town, Suzhou, Jiangsu said that the factory is currently running at full capacity, and orders in hand are lined up for 30 days. However, because chemical fiber products cannot be separated from basic chemical raw materials derived from oil refining, each round of crude oil price increases is directly reflected in the company’s production.

From the overall market perspective, synthetic fibers have seen increases to varying degrees. For example, one major category of polyester—polyester filament yarn—rose from about 7,180 yuan per ton in March to 9,300 yuan per ton. Week-on-week gains for multiple varieties of nylon products have exceeded 6%, and some models have jumped by 2,000 yuan per ton in a single day.

Some companies say they will not easily cut production lines for now. First, downstream demand for ongoing purchases still exists. Second, stopping and restarting work results in greater losses. They are also offsetting the risk of price fluctuations through dynamic inventory management and by increasing procurement of different raw material varieties.

• Raw material price volatility; fabric companies adjust quotes in real time

For textile companies, chemical fiber is a foundational raw material for producing fabrics, accounting for more than 60% of total fabric costs. Keqiao in Zhejiang is the largest textile distribution hub in the world. Ma Ziyi, a merchant at China Light Textile City in Keqiao, told reporters that the company organizes production based on orders, and many contracts were signed well before the year, so any losses caused by raw material price increases for these orders can only be borne by the company itself.

Yang Wei, general manager of Zhejiang Jinchán Textile & Garment Co., Ltd., said that their company has not yet passed the price increases through to downstream customers. Instead, it is responding through preparations and re-sourcing, shortening delivery cycles, and at the same time accelerating R&D of differentiated fabrics to strengthen pricing power.

• To cope with cost pressure; textile and foreign trade firms adjust raw material and market layouts

The cost pressure brought by higher crude oil prices will gradually be passed down along the textile supply chain to downstream industries.

At an outlet in Yiwu International Trade City that sells sun-protective clothing, Lou Qiaoping described that the company’s sun-protective clothing contains more than 85% nylon. Along with recent raw material price increases, they are also facing a shortage of supply—many orders cannot be fulfilled in full because upstream factories are unable to provide all the required goods.

Meanwhile, some companies producing new Chinese-style apparel said their garment raw materials are mainly natural fibers, with a relatively smaller proportion of chemical fibers, which gives them some buffer space.

He Rong, general manager of Zhejiang Haining Zhongfang Fabric Technology Co., Ltd.: Some garments use chemical fiber materials to achieve a 3D flower-scattering effect. When costs rise, it’s about 5 to 10 yuan per piece. If raw materials continue to rise, designers will directly change chemical fiber materials into man-made silk.

A shadow of “raw material supply cuts” affects the nerves of global chemical and high-end manufacturing industries

At present, the impact of tense geopolitical developments in the Middle East is spreading step by step from the energy sector into the petrochemical and high-end manufacturing industrial chains.

• South Korea: Ethylene prices surge; garbage bags become scarce goods

In Seoul, South Korea, over the past few weeks, “Have you been able to buy garbage bags?” has become a somewhat helpless greeting among many neighborhood residents and communities. Influenced by the situation in the Middle East, garbage bags—an essential daily item for South Koreans—have already become “hard-to-get” items at some supermarkets, and in some cases have even sold out.

The reason behind higher prices for plastic bags in South Korea is that the volume of naphtha imports has dropped significantly, leading to a sharp rise in ethylene prices used to produce plastic bags.

• Multiple global chemical companies announce price increase plans in succession

Under the cost pressure caused by this raw-material “supply cut” crisis, in March, several chemical companies worldwide announced price increase plans one after another. U.S. chemical giant Dow Chemical raised the increase in polyethylene prices to twice the level previously announced. Germany’s Wacker Chemie raised prices across its organosilicon products comprehensively, covering about 2,800 product types.

• Qatar: Facilities related to helium attacked; spot prices have recently jumped by more than 50%

In addition, the conflict in the Middle East has also put a spotlight on a colorless, odorless inert gas—helium. Qatar supplies nearly one-third of global helium demand. Due to attacks on LNG facilities, helium production lines were damaged, and repairs will take several years. Helium spot prices have recently risen by more than 50%.

Fertilizer prices rise; the “break in the chain” through the Strait of Hormuz hits global agriculture

The chain reaction triggered by the disruption of transportation through the Strait of Hormuz not only increases pressure on global industries related to petrochemicals, but also affects global production and prices of agricultural products by way of “fertilizer,” a key input for agricultural production.

The World Food Programme warns that if conflicts in the Middle East continue, the number of people whose food security is threatened could reach a record high this year.

• Why can one strait move the price of bread?

With the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, natural gas and nitrogen fertilizer production, as well as global fertilizer seaborne shipping routes, are simultaneously hit, forming a “triple break” in the chain of raw material—production—transportation. This almost affects all major staple crop production, directly leading to reduced crop yields, adjustments to planting structures, and thereby “structural food inflation.”

Analysts generally expect that with fertilizer supply and demand imbalances difficult to be resolved in the short term and geopolitical risks remaining, upward pressure on the prices of global grains such as corn and wheat will persist for a period of time.

From standstill and rerouting as a hedge to repricing

The Hormuz crisis reshapes global logistics

The disruption to passage through the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Middle East situation has also dealt a severe blow to global logistics. This situation has already lasted for more than a month. The logistics industry is gradually shifting from the initial “standstill and hedging” to “rerouting and diversion” and “repricing.”

As shipping routes and modes of transport are continuously adjusted, this shock is also driving a redistribution of risk and reward across global logistics chains. As the Hormuz crisis continues to intensify, constraints on exporting Middle East crude oil mean Asian and European buyers are starting to look more toward the United States, West Africa, and other places to find alternative sources.

Relevant parties said: “For shipping, it’s as if 30% of normal oil shipments can’t get out, because importing countries are rushing to find oil somewhere else, but the ships can’t be redeployed in time.”

By contrast, air logistics in this crisis is more complicated. On the one hand, when seaborne shipping is disrupted, some high time-sensitivity, high-value cargo shifts to air freight, directly pushing up freight rates. On the other hand, even though air freight prices rise, air logistics companies also face multiple pressures such as skyrocketing fuel costs. With fighting in the region showing no sign of ending, the restructuring of this logistics chain is still underway.

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