The tension between the US and Iran is so strong it’s making your nose itch, but these central banks are selling gold? The reason is different from what you think.

**HT Finance App News——**On Tuesday (04/07), global financial markets are on edge as developments in the Middle East situation unfold. Since tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated on 02/28/2026, this conflict has entered its sixth week. Although last week saw rumors in the market about Pakistan mediation entering a “critical stage,” the U.S.’ “April 8 ultimatum” is like a sword of Damocles hanging over the market.

In such an extremely uncertain environment—one that should have been the moment for gold to shine as a safe-haven asset—what the market is actually showing is a deceptive divergence: as the U.S.-Iran situation grows increasingly tense, international gold prices recorded their worst monthly performance since 2008 in March. At the same time, U.S. crude oil is hovering near highs, while the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields remain in strong, volatile consolidation. This phenomenon leaves many investors puzzled: is the situation about to reverse? Or do central banks no longer trust gold?

In fact, this divergence is not a failure of safe-haven logic, but a secondary disaster caused by war—liquidity crises and soaring energy costs are reshaping the short-term outlook for major asset classes.

Why is the situation getting tighter, yet some central banks are selling gold?

To understand this seemingly contradictory phenomenon, you have to look beyond the surface to the essence: some countries sell gold not because they’re “bearish,” but because they’re “in urgent need.”

1. War costs take priority over reserve diversification

The deadlock in the U.S.-Iran situation has the most direct consequence: disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has kept U.S. crude oil prices firmly above $100 per barrel for a long time. On 04/07’s latest quote, it has reached 115.04 U.S. dollars. For energy-import-dependent countries such as Turkey, high oil prices mean a dramatic widening of the trade deficit. To pay for costly energy bills and defend the domestic currency at the edge of a collapse, selling highly liquid gold is the most helpless—and quickest—choice. Since the war began, Turkey has sold about 60 tons of gold, essentially due to the economic pressure triggered by the war.

2. Gold’s “emergency cash” attribute gets triggered

In peacetime, gold is a de-dollarized “strategic reserve,” but in a war-triggered inflation crisis, it’s “doomsday survival money.” Because the U.S. dollar index is currently hovering around 99.9165, and the market broadly expects the Federal Reserve not to cut rates this year, the opportunity cost of holding gold (the “no interest-bearing asset” characteristic) is amplified against the backdrop of U.S. 10-year Treasury yields of as high as 4.332%. For economies facing sanctions and financing pressure, selling gold to obtain U.S. dollar cash to sustain national defense and basic fiscal spending is a more urgent task than relying on long-term reserves.

3. Structural buying has not stopped

It’s important to clarify that central banks overall have not turned. Data from well-known institutions shows that in 2026, global central banks are still expected to net buy 850 tons of gold. Major countries like China have added to holdings for 17 consecutive months. The operational differences between major countries and smaller ones, and between importers and exporters, precisely reflect how uneven the economic shock from war is across the world.

In-depth technical analysis for each asset and range forecasts

Spot gold: Directional choice amid range-bound action at high levels

On the 60-minute timeframe, spot gold is currently trading at 4651.02 and is in a delicate equilibrium period. Technically, the Bollinger Bands have tightened and flattened, and price is trading tightly around the midline. Although the MACD forms a golden cross below the zero axis, the histogram value is weak, indicating that rebound momentum is constrained by strong resistance in the 4675-4680 range.

Resistance range: Short-term resistance is at the upper Bollinger Band 4675 and a pressure extension level at 4700, which corresponds to the high on 04/02.

Support range: The downside support to watch is 4632 at the lower band; if it breaks, it may retest the prior low of 4351.

Logic: Gold is currently caught in a tug-of-war between “safe-haven demand” and “high-interest-rate liquidity sell-offs.” In the short term, it is easily hit by the outcome of the April 8 ultimatum.

U.S. crude oil: Fear-of-heights games in a long position trend

Crude oil has recently shown extremely strong performance, forming a V-shaped reversal. On the 60-minute timeframe, the price is 115.04. The Bollinger Bands open upward, showing a typical bullish alignment. Even though the MACD’s two lines are above the zero axis, the histogram has turned slightly negative, suggesting that after a rapid upside move, a near-term correction may be needed.

Resistance range: The top points directly to the upper Bollinger Band 116.60 and the pressure level near the prior high.

Support range: The first support is at the Bollinger midline 114.17, and the stronger support is at 111.74.

Logic: The expectation of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is the strongest geopolitical premium for oil prices. As long as negotiations show no substantive progress, oil is more likely to rise than fall.

U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries: High-level consolidation waiting for signals

U.S. Dollar Index (latest 99.9165) and 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (4.332%) show extremely high consistency. The 4-hour chart shows that the Bollinger Bands for Treasury yields are severely compressed, and the MACD’s three lines are sticking together—reflecting a temporary “horrific balance” reached between Federal Reserve policy signals and geopolitical risk in the market.

U.S. dollar range forecast: The volatility range is locked at 99.80 - 100.20. A break below 99.83 would open downside room; conversely, if safe-haven buying rushes in, it will return above 100.

Treasury yield range: Consolidating between 4.26% - 4.38%.

Outlook for the next 2-3 days

The next 48-72 hours will be the window that determines the short-term trend.

First, crude oil is expected to maintain a slightly bullish range-bound trend. As the April 8 ultimatum deadline approaches, market worries about a supply disruption will reach a peak, and oil prices may look for breakout opportunities around the 116 U.S. dollar area. If the situation suddenly changes, it’s not ruled out that there may be upside expansion.

Second, spot gold is likely to remain highly volatile within the 4630-4680 range. On one hand, some central bank selling and the strong suppression from the U.S. dollar limit upside. On the other hand, the urgency of the geopolitical situation provides support at the bottom. Without seeing signs of a substantive ceasefire or a comprehensive escalation of the war, gold is unlikely to form a one-direction trend.

Finally, the U.S. dollar—frozen by expectations of a Fed rate cut—will remain a haven for global liquidity in the short term, continuing to tug back and forth around the 100 level.

【Frequently Asked Questions】

1. Does selling gold by central banks mean that gold as a safe-haven asset is already outdated?

Answer: Not at all. The current selling behavior is mainly a “cash-out” to deal with emergencies caused by the currency crisis and energy deficits brought on by the war in countries such as Turkey. Meanwhile, countries like China and India are still consistently increasing their holdings, showing that gold’s strategic role in hedging against U.S. credit risk has not wavered.

2. Why didn’t the U.S.-Iran war end, yet oil prices showed a small pullback instead?

Answer: The small pullback right now is a technical correction. Because oil prices have surged from around 89 U.S. dollars at the end of March to above 116 U.S. dollars, the rally has been huge, and some profit-taking positions choose to cash in before the April 8 ultimatum expires. As long as the expectation of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains, the structural support for oil prices will remain very solid.

3. What does a 4.33% U.S. Treasury yield mean for gold?

Answer: This creates a “ceiling” effect. High yields mean that holding non-interest-bearing gold will cost a large amount of interest income. Therefore, unless risk-aversion sentiment can overcome pressure from interest rates, it’s difficult for gold prices to break through prior highs.

4. Do Trump’s tariff comments affect these assets?

Answer: Tariff-related remarks typically raise inflation expectations and are generally favorable for the U.S. dollar. In the current war context, such comments further reinforce the market expectation that a high-rate environment will last longer, indirectly suppressing gold’s valuation.

5. Which data or news matters most over the next two or three days?

Answer: The most core variables are Iran’s response to the U.S. April 8 ultimatum and the actual navigation status through the Strait of Hormuz. Any news about an escalation of the blockade or an unexpected ceasefire could instantly break through the current consolidation ranges for each asset.

(Editor: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)

【Risk Disclosure】According to regulations related to foreign exchange administration, buying and selling foreign exchange must be carried out in trading venues designated by banks and other countries’ prescribed places. For unauthorized buying and selling of foreign exchange, disguised buying and selling of foreign exchange, roundabout buying and selling of foreign exchange, or illegally introducing large amounts of foreign exchange for transactions, administrative penalties will be imposed by the foreign exchange administration authority in accordance with law; if it constitutes a crime, criminal responsibility will be investigated in accordance with law.

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