Federal Reserve Survey: Short-term inflation expectations rise, with gasoline price increase expectations surge to the highest since 2022

On Tuesday local time, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its March 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations. The report shows that households’ inflation expectations for the near term and the medium term increased, while their long-term inflation expectations remained unchanged. Expected gasoline price increases jumped to the highest level since March 2022. Job-seeking expectations improved somewhat, while expectations for unemployment and for the unemployment rate deteriorated. Expectations for spending and for household income growth were basically unchanged. Respondents were more pessimistic about their future household finances.

This Federal Reserve survey was conducted from March 2 to March 31, 2026.

The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations collects consumers’ expectations about the outlook for overall inflation and prices of items such as food, gasoline, housing, and education, and it also reflects how Americans view employment prospects, income growth, and future spending and access to credit, while providing measures of uncertainty in respondents’ expectations. The survey results are further categorized by age, region, income, education level, and mathematical ability.

This survey is a nationally representative online survey. The sample consists of a rotating panel of about 1,300 household heads, with each respondent participating for up to 12 months. Approximately the same number of respondents rotates in and out each month. Unlike cross-sectional surveys that use different respondents in each wave, the panel design allows researchers to track the expectations and behaviors of the same respondent over time.

Key survey results

The following are the key results from the Fed’s March survey.

Inflation

• The median expected inflation rate over the next year rose by 0.4 percentage points to 3.4%; over the next three years it rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1%; and over the next five years it held steady at 3.0%. Differences among respondents narrowed for the one-year horizon and widened for the three-year and five-year horizons. The medians of inflation uncertainty measures for each horizon all increased.
• The median expected home price growth rose by 0.3 percentage points to 3.3%, and has continued to fluctuate within a narrow range of 3.0% to 3.3% since August 2023.
• Median expected changes in prices of goods over the next year: gasoline up 5.3 percentage points to 9.4%, the highest since March 2022; food up 0.7 percentage points to 6%; rents up 1.2 percentage points to 7.1%; medical expense expectations held steady at 9.7%; and college education costs fell by 0.1 percentage points to 9.0%.

Labor market

• The median expected household income growth over the next year fell by 0.1 percentage points to 2.4%, below the average of 2.6% over the past 12 months, and at the low end of the range since May 2021.
• The average probability expectation that the U.S. unemployment rate will rise over the next year increased by 3.6 percentage points to 43.5%, the highest since April 2025.
• The average probability of losing a job within the next 12 months rose by 0.6 percentage points to 14.4%, still below the 12-month average of 14.6%; the average probability of quitting voluntarily rose by 2.4 percentage points to 18.3%.
• If respondents were to lose their current job and be able to find a new one, the average probability increased by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, but it still remains below the 12-month average of 47.5%; improvements were seen across age, education level, and income groups.

Household finances

• The median expected household income growth over the next year remained unchanged at 2.9%.
• The median expected household spending growth over the next year rose by 0.2 percentage points to 5.1%.
• Compared with a year ago, perceptions of credit access improved: the share of households that said loan difficulty increased fell, and the share that said loans would be easier increased; however, expectations for the future availability of credit deteriorated slightly.
• The average probability of being unable to repay at least the minimum debt within the next three months rose by 0.7 percentage points to 12.3%, still below the 12-month average of 13.3%. The increase was most pronounced among respondents aged 60 and above, those with some college education, and those with an annual income below $50k.
• The median expected change in tax burden over the next year fell by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%.
• The median expected growth in government debt over the next year rose by 0.6 percentage points to 9.8%, far above the 12-month average of 7.4%.
• The average probability that the average interest rate on savings accounts will rise over the next 12 months remained unchanged at 24.9%.
• Perceptions of current household financial conditions deteriorated: the share that said their financial situation would get worse increased, while the share that said it would improve decreased. Expectations for their future financial situation also deteriorated: the share that said it would get worse was the highest since April 2025, and the share that said it would get better declined.
• The average probability that U.S. stock prices will rise over the next 12 months fell by 1.6 percentage points to 36.3%.

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