Extreme Scenario Simulation — Four Possible Paths and Asset Response Matrix

The current Middle East situation is in a state of high uncertainty. After the “final deadline” at 8 p.m. on April 7, the following is an outlook for several possible scenarios and their impacts on various asset classes.

Scenario 1: Ceasefire Agreement Reached (Probability: Low)

Four sources said that the mediators are discussing the terms of a “potential 45-day ceasefire agreement.” If negotiations make a breakthrough, the Strait of Hormuz may gradually resume passage, and oil prices could quickly fall back into the $80 to $90 range. With improving liquidity expectations as a tailwind, Bitcoin could break above $75,000, while gold may face profit-taking pressure.

Scenario 2: Limited Military Escalation (Probability: Medium-High)

If Trump orders the destruction of some bridges and power plants in Iran, but does not launch a full-scale invasion, oil prices may remain in a high-range trading range of $115 to $130. Bitcoin will continue to trade in the $65,000 to $72,000 range. In this scenario, the spot premium of WTI crude oil may further expand. Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia will be unable to make up for the supply shortfall because they cannot increase production, so oil price support will continue to exist.

Scenario 3: Full-Scale Conflict Escalation (Probability: Medium)

If Iran launches a large-scale retaliatory strike against U.S. military bases in the Middle East, or completely blocks the Strait of Hormuz (the Islamic Republic’s top leader’s foreign affairs adviser has warned that this would be used as a countermeasure)【0†L？】, Brent crude could break through $150. Bitcoin could fall below $60,000, and gold may regain safe-haven capital inflows, launching an attack toward above $5,000. KCM Trade’s chief analyst warns that even if a ceasefire is reached, ongoing supply concerns and damaged energy infrastructure will still provide support for oil prices.

Scenario 4: Long-Term Stalemate (Probability: High)

If negotiations fall into a stalemate, there will be no ceasefire and the war will not be significantly escalated either, and the market will enter a “waiting mode.” The most consistent with current reality is that Iran refuses a temporary ceasefire, demands a permanent end to the war, and the mediators feel pessimistic about “yielding” to Iran. In this scenario, investors should reduce leverage, increase cash reserves, and adopt a “core + satellite” allocation: 70% of the core position in BTC and gold, and 30% of the satellite position to capture swing opportunities in crude oil and energy stocks.

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