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Countdown to the end of the US-Iran war—12H?

US-Iran negotiations have fallen into a deadlock. The US claims the talks are progressing smoothly, while Iran responds firmly, saying the war must be permanently ended. Today, Trump again issued a tough warning: if an agreement cannot be reached by 8:00 AM tomorrow (8:00 PM on April 7, US time), he will destroy Iran overnight. With only 12 hours left until the final deadline, every second is tugging at global nerves—will the US-Iran war usher in its final outcome tomorrow morning?

10 o’clock proposal VS 15 o’clock plan

According to information leaked by “the middle country,” in response to the US’ proposed peace agreement—the 15 o’clock plan—Iran put forward a 10 o’clock proposal that covers a series of demands from Iran’s side, including ending regional conflicts, setting up a security passage agreement for the Strait of Hormuz, carrying out reconstruction, and lifting sanctions. Iran rules out the possibility of a temporary ceasefire and emphasizes that the conflict must be permanently ended. At present, the core demands on both sides are relatively clear. On the US side: to open the Strait of Hormuz and have Iran give up nuclear weapons. On Iran’s side: to achieve a permanent ceasefire, war reparations, and the removal of economic sanctions. In short, both sides are sharply at odds, and the probability of reaching an agreement is extremely low. The war will most likely still need to move into ground combat—it remains to be seen whether Trump’s “overnight destruction of Iran” plan can be carried out.

Seeing oil prices of $120 tonight?

Judging from the current situation, the likelihood of tonight’s oil price breaking $120 is very high. On one hand, the level of tension in the US-Iran situation is escalating continuously, and Trump’s final ultimatum has pushed market worries about an escalation of the conflict to the peak. Investors have rushed to buy crude oil futures to hedge potential supply risks. On the other hand, it has been made clear that the Strait of Hormuz “will never” return to its pre-war state. You need to know that the Strait of Hormuz accounts for 20% of global oil trade volume; once it is completely sealed off, the global oil supply chain will suffer a severe blow.

But it’s worth reminding you: once oil prices break above $120, that is a level where long positions can take profit—not a place to chase longs. For the US-Iran war, the worst-case scenario is simply that talks fail and the fighting moves into ground war. By then, it could be the moment when oil prices top out.

Bitcoin—bounce is highly limited, with the high ground as the main focus

Naturally, the tight US-Iran situation also suppresses coin prices. Because people are worried that the two sides may not reach an agreement, “the big cake” has already fallen today. If tomorrow the negotiations fail and the situation escalates, BTC is very likely to drop sharply downward with a downward spike, and 70250 could become a high point that will be difficult to return to in the near term.

From a technical perspective, on the daily chart after three consecutive days of bullish closes, the fourth day (April 2) turned into a strong bearish candle, which fits the “three bullish days followed by one bearish day” reversal pattern. $70,000 is a strong resistance zone. After multiple tests, it failed and fell back under pressure. The 4-hour chart shows that the MA5 and MA10 moving averages are stuck together and intertwined; the MACD green histogram narrows; the RSI has fallen back to the neutral range of 50–60. Short-term momentum appears to be fading, and the probability of choosing a downward direction increases significantly. Combined with the weekly chart’s pattern that is extremely similar to the last wave of a “five-wave decline,” Bitcoin is highly likely to keep heading south. Strategically, it should focus on shorting, and set the stop-loss above 70500.