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Will the current US-Iran situation affect Bitcoin? How significant is the impact?
U.S. President Trump has set a final deadline for 8:00 PM Eastern Time on April 7 (8:00 AM Beijing Time on April 8).
The U.S. threatens: if Iran does not unconditionally fully open the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. military will destroy Iran’s power plants, bridges, and other civilian infrastructure within 4 hours, even threatening that Iran could be "overwhelmed overnight."
It is highly likely that there will be limited escalation.
The U.S. will carry out precise strikes (not full-scale bombing), and Iran may retaliate by attacking U.S. military bases or Israel. Both sides could enter a limited conflict, with the Strait remaining semi-blocked, causing oil prices to fluctuate at high levels.
Impact on Bitcoin:
Short-term (within 48 hours): If full-scale war breaks out, markets will panic, and Bitcoin is likely to plummet sharply (risk asset characteristics).
Medium-term (1-2 weeks): If the conflict drags on and sanctions intensify, Bitcoin’s safe-haven properties will activate, and it will strongly rebound as an asset resistant to censorship and inflation. $BTC