How to Catch the Bull Stocks with a Tenfold Annual Increase - Commemorating 4.7

The trade war on April 7 last year kicked off, and since then, the market has seen some stocks that have surged up to ten times from where they were. These include $长飞光纤(sh601869)$, $腾景科技(sh688195)$, $源杰科技(sh688498)$, $宏和科技(sh603256)$, 鼎泰高科, 上纬新材, and st亚振. These are, respectively, optical fiber optical communications, PCB, and CPO, as well as mergers and acquisitions and restructuring. Actually, aside from screening out the ChiNext and STAR Market stocks that retail investors are basically blocked from, then among the remaining st stocks and M&A restructuring, the stocks that retail investors can realistically get hold of are really only 宏和科技 and 长飞光纤. [Tao股吧]

      Looking at the whole direction, these stocks here are basically those that align with the market’s overall development direction and are also the “primary offspring” concept stocks. At the same time, they are the main development directions in the technology sector. If this direction can be understood smoothly, then later ten-bagger stocks are understandable too. Because earlier you did one round of understanding, and then the later understanding would need to keep being derived. Who can get on top?  


        Last year was actually a big year for technology—its representative stocks were almost all technology leaders. It felt like everything was moving upward together. So this year it’s basically about constantly eliminating the weak and keeping the strong. That is, if the market continues to perform well this year, then it’s fine. But if it can’t continue to perform as well as last year, then the leading stocks by gain this year may need to enter this sequence of the direction. One of the more representative names, 易中天, became widely known across the market. But those few above are actually stronger. If you analyze the stocks here in detail, the result is already out. That is: communication might be one of the future directions.  

 After having this thesis, then you need to do a filter. What’s missing here is a direction that hasn’t been rising consistently and needs to rise—that is communication-type stocks. This direction has the 5G/6G and WiFi 6 theme. This was proposed starting from last September, but it hasn’t been actively catalyzed all along. In September, what was first recognized were 3D communications and China Satellite/China Satcom. The one that really sparked the rally was 首开股份. In October, there was strong momentum from energy, continuous development in 平潭发展, and 合富中国. By December, commercial space finally came. If it can be confirmed, then this line can already be locked in. Space development and 西部材料 both had astonishing gains. Later, if 中国卫通 and 中国卫星 and 3D communications restart again, then this line is basically fully laid out. In between, there are interspersed other themes—either Baiyin or InterContinental Oil & Gas or movie stocks—but the order already put the communication direction at the key point.  

     Actually, 长飞光纤 has been watched for quite a while, but it never had a breakthrough point. By the end of January, when it broke out, we actively shared it with everyone and did a concrete analysis. The concrete analysis has been explained countless times, but the most important part is how to determine that this stock will become the future leader stock—or even if it’s not the leader, it doesn’t matter. What matters is that there must be a chance with a trend-strength move. If it just keeps going up in a straight line, that’s one thing. But what if there are pullbacks and volatility?  

      First, you have to reassess whether the logic behind this line is still intact. Is communication still the main line? Is the leader still 长飞光纤? If yes, then keep paying attention. If not, then continue observing. If capital has already left, then that’s another matter. Because in the process of the market’s changes after the New Year, the market gradually started showing a走势 similar to the run-up before the June 2024 bull market. The market’s choice only works if there is enough certainty—that is, only certainty is valuable.  

       The stocks selected for certainty in 2024 were 川发龙蟒. The reasons have already been discussed. This is a stock with certainty. Once certainty exists, then all that’s left is conviction. If you still can’t be fully certain, then you use a method that you can feel fully at ease with—trade stocks with profits. If you still get scared even after you can make profits trading stocks, then there’s nothing to be done. As for the volatility after the two sessions, it’s normal. If you can successfully pass the tribulation, then it becomes the market’s overall top leader stock. The market’s answer has already been given. When the index was at 4141, it appeared accurately at 266.66. When the index dropped to below 3800, it was the first leading stock to rise. By then, the market’s leader is confirmed again. And once you have the market’s leader, then looking at other stocks would be pretty boring—because in this kind of market, the front-row stocks need to keep strengthening, while the back-row stocks may have to catch up and perform a “supplementary drop.” This hint probably isn’t noticed by many people.  

      If there’s a market main theme, then the other secondary themes and other directions only need a slight amount of attention. That’s position allocation. But many people’s positions are made up of “杂毛” stocks as the main position, while the leader is held as a light position—that’s not a qualified investor. In fact, in a weak market, certainty is the only indicator. It’s the life-saving rule for getting through a long bear market. Conversely, if it’s a bull market, then things are much simpler. But many classmates haven’t experienced a bear market, so even if you say it, it doesn’t help. It’s probably just that they know how to attack but don’t pay attention to defense, and even less to certainty. That’s why losses are very likely to happen here.  

    For tech stocks, there are only two indicators: one is product price increases, and the other is technology’s update and iteration. Once the logic is already clear, fiber optics has perfectly fulfilled both: one is product price increases, and the other is a technological breakthrough in fiber showing an “air transmission” technology. This is a breakthrough-type technology before—because previously it was optical communication with electrical transmission. Now it’s optical communication with air transmission. That’s a very big advancement. If you achieve either of these conditions, that’s already a reason to pay attention. If you achieve both, then a ten-bagger gain is not strange at all. For example, last year’s storage price increase: 香农芯创 surged to nearly 7 times. A per-share 100-yuan 长飞光纤 has, up to now, risen by more than 3 hundred—how much farther is anyone’s guess. But from April 7 last year to today, it’s already been 11 times. Next to 上纬新材. But it doesn’t feel like it has ended yet. Exactly how far it goes is known only by heaven. Maybe the end of it is the stars and the sea.  


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