Kyle Rodda Warns of “Binary Risk” Bitcoin as Trump’s Iran Deadline Approaches

Kyle Rodda warns that Bitcoin
BTCUSD
faces “binary risk” as President Trump’s Tuesday evening ET ultimatum to Iran forces traders into a scenario purely between escalation or relief.

BTC fell below US$69,000 on Tuesday after it had previously briefly touched US$70,000 the day before, as Iran rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal and Trump called that deadline “final.”

Trump’s Fourth Ultimatum and Crypto Response

Trump demanded that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on all bridges and power plants in the country. This marks the fourth time the president has extended and reset the ultimatum since March 21.

A fifth delay is still possible if Trump sees a deal, although on Monday he said it was “very unlikely” he would delay again.

Rodda explained to BeInCrypto that the market is in a waiting position, only anticipating one of two possible outcomes.

“An attack happens, the situation gets hotter, or it doesn’t—and after that, there will be a massive relief rally. Bitcoin remains range-bound, trading between roughly US$60,000 and US$75,000,” Rodda said.

He added that a major escalation could pressure BTC through rising Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar, both driven by a surge in oil prices.

The US Dollar Index
DXY
has consolidated around 100 and appears ready for a breakout, a signal that aligns with Rodda’s warning.

The DXY structure resembles previous fractal patterns from 2014 and 2021 that occurred before a prolonged Bitcoin decline.

“A DXY breakout to the upside will likely be followed by USDT dominance… so you should be prepared to see the next downward move in Bitcoin,” analyst Kyle Doops said.

However, Rodda also highlighted the resilience hidden behind current market conditions.

“It’s important to note how resilient Bitcoin is, and there are early signals—though far from confirmation—that this asset is forming its bottom,” he emphasized.

Bear Flag in the Near Term

The technical structure adds another layer of urgency. BTC has been consolidating in a bear flag pattern for about 60 days, consistent with the duration of the previous bear flag, which lasted 54 days before eventually breaking down.

However, it’s worth noting that the declining volume during this pattern makes a rally less credible.

Daily volume on crypto exchanges has corrected to levels last seen during the FTX crash, indicating sentiment has plunged to historic lows.

In addition, with crude oil prices as the key signal, crude oil has tested resistance four times, and a breakout toward US$128 per barrel could have broad impacts on other risk assets, further pressuring BTC.

Institutional Flows and Waning Volatility

On the other hand, QCP Capital analysts said the market is increasingly starting to ignore Trump’s escalation pattern after four consecutive deadline extensions.

Crude oil prices are weakening, and stock futures remain stable, signaling that the risk of a sudden attack now feels less pressing.

Institutional demand is still positive. The spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) recorded net inflows of US$1.32 billion in March, becoming the first positive month since October 2025, breaking four consecutive months of outflows.

MicroStrategy has also resumed accumulating BTC after a pause.

In options markets, implied volatility is hinted to have fallen to its lowest level since the conflict began on February 28. Meanwhile, skew has started to normalize again, indicating reduced demand for hedging amid geopolitical uncertainty that is still looming.

Polymarket data shows traders give only a 3% probability for a ceasefire before April 7, but it rises to 30% on April 30.

The report also reveals that Trump may delay the deadline again if a deal is close to being reached, adding yet another variable to a situation that is already binary.

Whether Tuesday brings an attack or another extension, BTC’s reaction will test whether the bottom-formation signals identified by Rodda can hold up amid geopolitical tensions and a bear flag whose time is almost up.

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