Analysis: Since the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts, BTC and software stocks have shown a divergence in their performance.

CoinDesk reports that, since the geopolitical conflict began on February 28, BTC has shown a significant divergence from the iShares Expanded Technology Software Sector ETF, which tracks software stocks. During this period, BTC rose more than 5% against the trend and returned to above $69,000, while IGV fell by more than 2%. Market data show that the correlation between the two—once nearly perfectly synchronized at the start of February (1.0)—briefly plunged to a decoupling critical point of 0.13, and has currently recovered slightly to 0.7. Analysts say that this divergence in performance is due to a shift in the underlying pricing logic. The rapid adoption of AI has intensified competition in the SaaS sector, putting pressure on large constituent stocks such as Microsoft and Oracle as their profit margins and valuation multiples compress; meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty has prompted macro capital to reprice BTC as a safe-haven asset, directly creating a structural premium for it that is independent of the U.S. stock technology sector.