The US Dollar Index continues to hover at high levels, cautioning against a pullback near resistance levels.

Tonghui Finance App News—— During Tuesday’s Asian session, the U.S. Dollar Index rose to around 100.10, extending the recent rebound trend. The current U.S. dollar outlook is mainly driven by a combination of safe-haven demand and interest-rate expectations, and remains relatively strong amid a complex macro backdrop.

From the perspective of the market’s core drivers, continued tension in the Middle East has become an important catalyst for the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. The risks around the Strait of Hormuz are still intensifying. U.S. President Donald Trump has clearly stated that the current ceasefire proposal is “still not enough,” and he has threatened to take further action. This uncertainty significantly boosts global risk-aversion sentiment, driving funds into the U.S. dollar, thereby supporting the U.S. Dollar Index’s upward move.

Meanwhile, inflation pressure brought by rising oil prices is again affecting expectations for monetary policy. As energy prices climb, concerns about inflation persistence are intensifying. Federal Reserve officials said that if inflation remains at elevated levels, the possibility of further tightening policy cannot be ruled out. This statement reinforces market expectations for “high interest rates to stay in place for longer,” becoming an important supporting factor for the U.S. dollar.

However, on the economic data front, some softer signals have been released. According to data released by the Institute for Supply Management in the United States, the March services PMI fell to 54.0, below the prior figure and market expectations, indicating that the expansion momentum in the services sector has weakened to some extent. To a certain degree, this data limits the upward room for the U.S. dollar, but the overall impact is limited.

The market is currently waiting for U.S. durable goods orders and ADP employment data, which will provide new guidance for the near-term outlook. In an environment dominated by geopolitical risk, the marginal impact of the data may be weaker than risk sentiment itself.

From a technical perspective, on the daily timeframe, the U.S. Dollar Index has stabilized above the 100 integer level, and the near-term trend has turned stronger. The previous pullback low has formed a phase of support, and the price has moved back above key moving averages, indicating that bullish momentum has resumed. The current key resistance level is 101.00, with further resistance at 102.00. The support level below is 99.50, with further support at 98.80. Momentum indicators show that upward momentum is gradually strengthening.

On the 4-hour timeframe, the U.S. Dollar Index shows a structure of choppy upward movement, with recent highs and lows gradually being lifted. Short-cycle moving averages remain in a bullish alignment, and the RSI is operating in the mid-to-high range, indicating a generally strong short-term setup. If 101.00 is broken, it will further confirm the upward trend; if 99.50 is broken on the downside, it may enter a correction phase.

Editor’s Summary:

The key drivers behind the current U.S. Dollar Index are “geopolitical safe-haven + interest-rate expectations.” The Middle East situation increases safe-haven demand, and combined with inflation pressure arising from rising oil prices, it prompts the market to reassess the Fed’s policy path—thereby supporting the U.S. dollar in maintaining its strength. Although some economic data are soft, under a risk-sentiment-led environment the impact is limited. In the short term, the U.S. Dollar Index may continue to trade in a choppy yet slightly bullish pattern; the subsequent direction will depend on further changes in the geopolitical situation and economic data.

(Responsible editor: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)

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