The current market has been completely hijacked by geopolitical news. The key isn’t whether “talks succeed or fail,” but how the market interprets each new piece of news:

- Signals of success (even just “postponement”): risk appetite increases → short positions close → Bitcoin rebounds; yesterday’s breakthrough of $70k was driven by this.
- Signals of breakdown: oil prices continue to surge → inflation expectations rise → risk assets come under pressure; Bitcoin retests $66,000–$67,000.

The current market state is: every piece of news about “deadlines” or “negotiation progress” triggers a wave of panic and volatility. This isn’t a trend market; it’s a news-driven market.

For players in the circle, don’t bet on “whether talks succeed or collapse,”
but understand: the current chart is being repeatedly pulled by these news stories.

Tonight until 8 PM tomorrow is the deadline for the ultimatum. Any news of “postponement,” “progress,” or “breakdown” during this period will trigger intense volatility.

The only strategy: always remember to stay defensive! Don’t go all-in on a direction based on news. Don’t wait for the news to settle and the market to digest the initial wave of emotion—you’ll already be forced out.