Risk aversion and interest rate hike expectations compete, and gold's rebound is hindered at $4,600.

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Source: Huitong Finance

Gold prices continue to rebound. After rising for the third consecutive trading day, they touched a nearly one-and-a-half-week high during Asian trading hours, approaching the $4,600 level. Earlier, gold rebounded from a nearby low around $4,100, mainly supported by a U.S. dollar pullback and a decline in yields. However, near key resistance levels, it has shown clear pressure, indicating that bullish momentum is still insufficient.

From a fundamentals perspective, market sentiment is significantly influenced by changes in the situation in the Middle East. The latest information shows that the United States has signaled it may gradually bring military operations to an end, even though the Strait of Hormuz has not fully resumed normal navigation. This expectation has pushed oil prices to experience a corrective pullback, thereby easing inflation pressure and lowering U.S. Treasury yields, which provides some support for gold.

However, uncertainty in the situation remains high. Iran is cautious about direct negotiations, while the U.S. continues to deploy military forces in the region, limiting market expectations that the conflict will quickly de-escalate. To a certain extent, this uncertainty supports oil prices and maintains inflation risk expectations, thereby strengthening the likelihood that global central banks will keep monetary policy tight.

Some analysts said, “The current gold market is caught in a tug-of-war between policy expectations and safe-haven demand. In the short term, price action depends more on changes in interest-rate expectations.”

From the perspective of monetary policy, the market has basically ruled out the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates further and has started to raise expectations for rate hikes within the year. This change has exerted clear downward pressure on gold. As the U.S. dollar remains attractive after the pullback, bargain-buying supports the dollar, which also limits the room for gold’s rebound to a certain extent.

In addition, the market is watching upcoming U.S. economic data, including job openings and the consumer confidence index. These data will provide important references for assessing economic resilience and may affect the Federal Reserve’s future policy path, thereby directly influencing gold’s price trend.

From a technical perspective, at the daily timeframe, gold is still within a long-term uptrend, but in the short term it is showing a repaired structure after adjustment. The current price is running below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and it is also pressured by the 100-day moving average, indicating strong resistance overhead. If the daily price can effectively break through this area, it may have room to probe further toward $4,747 (the 50% retracement level). But before that breakout occurs, the overall trend remains mostly range-bound. In terms of momentum indicators, the RSI has rebounded from the oversold zone to around 41, suggesting selling pressure has eased, but upward momentum remains limited. The MACD is still below the zero line and momentum is negative, showing that the rebound has not formed a trend-reversal signal. On the 4-hour timeframe, after rebounding, the price has gradually approached the resistance range, but multiple times it has been blocked near $4,600, indicating that short-term upside lacks strength. The moving-average system is in a state of pressure, and the short-term trend remains range-bound and relatively weak. If it falls back, the initial support level to watch is $4,470. The next support level is $4,401 (the 23.6% retracement level). If it breaks, it could open up a pullback window toward the $4,200–$4,150 area and test the 200-day moving average (around $4,129), a key trend support.

From an overall technical-structure perspective, as long as the price stays above the 200-day moving average, the long-term bullish structure remains intact. However, the short-term outlook is still relatively cautious, with a risk of choppy pullbacks.

Editor’s Summary

Overall, gold is currently caught in a two-way struggle between rebound repair and policy pressure. A pullback in oil prices and falling yields provide support for gold, but the warming expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes and the dollar’s resilience limit upside potential. From a technical standpoint, the daily trend remains mildly bullish, but key resistance has not been broken, and momentum on the 4-hour timeframe is insufficient. Overall, gold’s short-term performance is more likely to maintain a choppy, range-bound pattern. Pay attention to whether resistance at $4,600 and support at $4,400 can be broken.

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Responsible editor: Guo Jian