The "Safe-Haven Failure" of Gold—When Traditional Logic Is Completely Upended

On April 6, the Middle East situation continued to escalate, with Brent crude oil surpassing $141 per barrel, reaching a new high since 2008. However, spot gold is currently at $4,604.84 per ounce, down 1.31% for the day. Since the outbreak of conflict in February, international gold prices have fallen nearly 20%, while oil prices have surged over 100% during the same period.
Why has the rule of "a cannon shot brings a thousand ounces of gold" failed?
The core reason is that the surge in oil prices → inflation expectations soar → rate cut expectations collapse → real interest rates rise → gold selling, a transmission chain that has completely rewritten gold’s pricing logic.
The specific transmission path is as follows: blockage of the Strait of Hormuz leads to a significant tightening of crude oil supply, pushing up global energy prices; rising energy costs intensify inflation pressure; non-farm payroll data in March far exceeded expectations (adding 178k jobs, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%), further reinforcing the view of a "strong economy"; the CME FedWatch tool shows that most traders believe the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates this year has dropped to nearly zero, and even discussions of rate hikes are reigniting; as a non-interest-bearing asset, holding costs for gold surge with rising real interest rates, prompting investors to shift toward the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and crude oil.
Bart Melek, Head of Global Commodity Strategy at TD Securities, explicitly pointed out: "If the conflict persists and supply remains tight, oil prices will gradually rise, exacerbating inflationary pressures. This will reduce the room for central banks, especially the Fed, to ease policy, and may even reignite discussions of rate hikes, which is bearish for gold."
Currently, gold prices are at a critical juncture: On the morning of April 7, Asian markets, spot gold is trading around $4,660 per ounce, in a narrow range. The key support zone is between $4,600 and $4,650; if broken, it could further decline toward $4,500. Notably, since the conflict erupted, gold has not hit new highs as in past geopolitical crises but has continued to decline. This "abnormality" itself confirms a reconstruction of macro pricing logic.
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For investors’ reference: Geopolitical conflicts are no longer the sole bullish factor for gold. In the current environment, assessing gold price trends must consider: the speed of energy price transmission to inflation, changes in Federal Reserve policy paths, and the direction of the US dollar index. If there is substantive easing in US-Iran tensions, a rapid decline in oil prices could instead provide short-term support for gold (because inflationary pressures ease and rate cut expectations reignite). This "reverse logic" requires investors to have a more three-dimensional understanding of asset pricing mechanisms.
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