Farewell to the 1499 yuan era, now adjusted to 1539 yuan per bottle! Why is Feitian Maotai "raising prices against the market trend"?

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Reporter from the Economic Daily News: Xiong Jiayang | Editor: Zhang Jinhe Zhao Yun

On the evening of March 30, Kweichow Moutai released an announcement on major matters. Effective March 31, 2026, the sales contract price (factory ex-works price) of Feitian 53% vol 500ml Kweichow Moutai Wine (2026) will be adjusted from 1,169 yuan per bottle to 1,269 yuan per bottle, and the retail price of self-operated channels will be adjusted from 1,499 yuan per bottle to 1,539 yuan per bottle. It has been only a little over two and a half years since the last time the ex-works price was raised to 1,169 yuan per bottle.

A reporter from “The Economic Daily News · Jiangjinjiu” noted that from 2022 to 2024, the company’s actual production capacity has remained stable for three consecutive years at 56k tons, with virtually no incremental increase; meanwhile, the market wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has continued to decline since last year. With volume unable to increase and prices under pressure, it seems that a price hike is the inevitable choice. However, the increase of less than 9% is clearly more “restrained” compared with the previous round.

On the other hand, this announcement explicitly states that the retail price of Feitian Moutai in self-operated channels will be adjusted to 1,539 yuan per bottle. From changing the “i Moutai” guidance price to the retail price, to raising it from 1,499 yuan to 1,539 yuan, this not only breaks the 1,499-yuan “guidance price” that had been used for eight years, but also means that the price of Feitian Moutai officially enters the “market-following” stage.

Because this time it did not specify the terminal retail price for the distributor system, does that mean distributors can also set prices freely? How much incremental performance will this price increase bring this year? After breaking the 1,499-yuan ceiling, where will market pricing go? Will the market-oriented reform that Moutai has repeatedly emphasized truly take a critical step? What kind of impact will it have on the industry?

A restrained upward adjustment of nearly 9% to the ex-works price

Price adjustment at the end of the first quarter covers the full-year performance

But its contribution may be limited

“Keeping the price stable can control volume; this year’s performance is guaranteed.” When discussing Kweichow Moutai’s hike, a securities analyst said bluntly.

Distilleries are accustomed to raising prices during off-peak seasons, but this time Moutai chose the end of the first quarter. The last price increase happened in November 2023. At that time, the boost to that year’s performance was limited; the real dividend was released in 2024. This time, however, the price increase lands right at the close of the first quarter within the year, meaning the price-hike effect will fully cover the year’s performance, and its boost to the income statement is obviously more direct.

In 2024—the first full year after the previous round of increases—Kweichow Moutai achieved total operating revenue of 174.14B yuan, up 15.66%; attributable net profit to shareholders was 86.23B yuan, up 15.38%. On top of a high base, the company has maintained double-digit growth in both revenue and net profit for the eighth consecutive year.

But the chill from industry adjustments has not faded. In 2025, the company lowered its target for total operating revenue growth to 9%; for the first three quarters, actual growth rates of revenue and net profit were only 6.32% and 6.25%, respectively.

Meanwhile, the market wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has continued to decline since last year. And the company’s actual production capacity from 2022 to 2024 has remained stable at around 56k tons, with little to no incremental increase for three consecutive years. With volume unable to grow and prices under pressure, to achieve the set performance target, it seems that only the price remains as the way forward.

However, the contribution of this price increase to performance may be limited.

After the last price hike, multiple securities firms projected that just this one item would thicken the company’s 2024 profit by more than 4.5 billion yuan. But this time, the力度 (magnitude) is clearly smaller.

Looking back at Moutai’s nine previous ex-works price increases since it went public, the percentage never fell below 15%, and the per-bottle increase ranged between 50 and 200 yuan. In this round, however, the per-bottle increase is only 100 yuan, with a percentage increase of less than 9%. Compared with the previous round of 200 yuan per bottle and a 20% increase, it appears even more “restrained.”

The aforementioned securities firm forecast that after the price increase, it is expected to bring about about 2% growth in performance.

But the logic behind price adjustments has never been only about profit. Industry analysis suggests that for manufacturers, adjusting prices is not simply a pursuit of profit growth; it is also about making product prices align more closely with the real market situation, so that price signals are more transparent and effective. Through careful selection of timing for price adjustments and changes to scientific profit-allocation mechanisms, Moutai not only further strengthens the foundation for its long-term development, but also sets a benchmark for the industry currently in a cycle of adjustment—rather than consuming itself in a price war, it is better to reshape a transparent and stable pricing system through channel transformation and digital tools.

“Guidance price” becomes “retail price”

Feitian Moutai truly enters a “market-following” price era

For the market, the performance elasticity brought by this adjustment may be less than in the past, but more importantly, it marks a critical step in Moutai’s market-oriented reform. In addition to raising the ex-works price, it also clearly increased the retail price in self-operated channels by 40 yuan to 1,539 yuan per bottle.

“Essentially, it is the marketization of prices—market-following.” A distributor told the reporter that the ex-works price adjustment itself does not constitute marketization; the core change is canceling the 1,499-yuan guidance price that had been used for many years. This is the first time since 2018 that Moutai has adjusted the market guidance price.

In his view, in the past few years Moutai had raised its ex-works price multiple times, but the market was always “stapled” at 1,499 yuan in terms of the guidance-price mechanism. In January this year, when i Moutai launched Moutai wine products, it had already changed the former “guidance price” to a “retail price,” but the price of Feitian Moutai was still fixed at 1,499 yuan per bottle.

And this adjustment to the retail price formally bids farewell to the eight-year unit price of 1,499 yuan per bottle, which will be a landmark move indicating that Feitian Moutai’s price is moving into a “market-following” mode. It may also mean that its price will, in the future, be adjusted at any time according to market supply and demand.

Also worth paying special attention to is that this time the company only clearly specified the retail price in the self-operated channel system, without making hard prescriptions for the terminal prices in the distributor system. This may leave room for distributors to set prices freely based on market conditions.

Since Moutai proposed a market-oriented transformation at the end of last year, one important move has been, on the “i Moutai” platform, to clearly label the price of all products as “retail price.” Defining the terminal price as the “retail price” reflects Moutai’s intention to reclaim pricing power from the market, avoid abnormal price fluctuations, and at the same time set a reasonable range for channel profits.

Breaking the 1,499-yuan guidance price is equivalent to opening up a new pricing space for distributors. The distributor further explained that previously, selling below the guidance price was not allowed; now, that restriction no longer exists. In the future, distributors will decide entirely how much to sell for based on market demand. The future also does not rule out Moutai adjusting based on market dynamics. Meanwhile, the company can control volume through i Moutai to maintain price stability.

Moutai leadership has repeatedly emphasized the need to ensure distributors’ reasonable profits. In an announcement dated January 14 this year, the company also clearly stated that under the distribution model, based on operating costs, operating difficulty, operating risks, service capability, and other factors for different products and different channels, the sales contract price will be scientifically and reasonably calculated and dynamically adjusted.

Industry analysis notes that this series of actions shows that the purpose of Moutai’s reform is absolutely not to eliminate distributors or to disrupt the existing channel system. Rather, through a more transparent pricing mechanism and dynamic adjustments, it aims to clarify the division of responsibilities and profit allocation between the manufacturer and distributors, ultimately ensuring reasonable returns at the channel level.

Large leading liquor enterprises generally adjust prices “downward”

Why does Moutai choose to adjust “upward” against the trend?

The timing of Moutai’s price adjustment also stands in sharp contrast to peers.

Since 2025, China’s baijiu industry has entered the deep-water stage where three rounds of factors overlap: “policy adjustments, consumption shifts, and stock competition.” Channel inventories have risen sharply, and price inversions have become common across the industry; distributor profits are thin or even turning into losses.

According to the “2025 China Baijiu Market Mid-Year Research Report,” in the first half of 2025, the three price bands with the most severe price inversions were, in order, 800 yuan–1,500 yuan, 500 yuan–800 yuan, and 300 yuan–500 yuan. Among them, products in the 500 yuan–800 yuan band face the toughest survival conditions. The reporter noted that the 500 yuan–800 yuan price band is precisely the core battleground for mid-to-high-end baijiu, and it is also the main price band of the product categories in which leading liquor enterprises recently concentrated their ex-works price adjustments.

And in order to truly ease channel pressure, since last year many leading liquor enterprises such as Wuliangye, Xi Jiu, and Langjiu have all adjusted downward the ex-works prices of their core products—either by channel subsidies, quota adjustments, and other measures—to achieve “indirect price cuts,” covering multiple price bands including high-end and mid-to-high-end categories.

While the industry generally adjusts prices “downward,” Moutai has chosen to adjust “upward.” What logic does that rely on?

Industry analysis believes that unlike other liquor companies relying on channel stock-building growth, Moutai’s production capacity has remained stable at 56k tons for three consecutive years, leaving little room for incremental supply. Although terminal demand has been subject to fluctuations due to the broader environment, rigid demand still exists for core scenarios such as high-end gifting, collecting, and banquets. When supply cannot expand but demand is still supported, raising prices is no longer a risky move—it is a re-pricing based on scarcity.

Baijiu expert Xiao Zhuching believes that from an industry perspective, Moutai’s counter-trend adjustment releases a clear signal: top brands still have the ability to regulate supply and demand through market-oriented means and optimize the pricing system, thereby instilling confidence in leading the industry out of the adjustment period.

When prices become more transparent, channels become healthier, consumption becomes more real, and development becomes more certain, the path of high-quality development for the baijiu industry will also proceed more steadily. Moutai’s move is expected to help lead the industry to shift from “cycle anxiety” to “value-focused deep cultivation,” providing a reference path for the industry to get through this round of adjustment cycle.

(Disclaimer: The contents and data in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Please verify before using. All actions are at your own risk.)

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