Public offerings will face a "100-day performance test" as the performance gap between the top and bottom funds exceeds 92 percentage points

Securities Times reporter Wu Qi

The 2026 market outlook is about to reach the 100-day mark, and performance among public funds is accelerating into stark differentiation. Data show that as of April 3, the gap between the top and bottom performances of all funds across the market since the start of the year has already exceeded 92 percentage points. Among them, funds focused on the optical communications theme have been strong, continuing to lead; while funds heavily invested in sectors such as Hong Kong stocks’ internet and humanoid robots are relatively weak and are temporarily ranking toward the rear. Between different tracks, there is a clear contrast of “ice and fire.”

Stronger performance for funds heavily invested in optical communications

Recently, while the overall A-share market has been choppy, the optical communications sector has risen against the trend, becoming a key driver pushing up the net asset values of related funds. Benefiting from strong performance in this sector, several funds with heavy optical-communications holdings have seen their performance cluster higher, with product net values hitting new highs one after another.

Judging from fund performance, since the start of the year, active equity products such as Guoshou Anbao Digital Economy, Jinxin Quantitative Select, Guoshou Anbao Strategy Select, and Huatai-PB Quality Growth—among the leaders in industry price gains—have maintained relatively high allocations to the optical communications sector. As of April 3, the year-to-date returns of these funds have all already exceeded 30%.

On the trading screen, optical communications sub-sectors such as OCS (optical circuit switching), CPO (co-packaged optics), and optical fiber have gathered substantial market heat. On April 3, Decolay hit the 20% daily limit in a show of strength, Tengjing Technology surged 19.22%, and core names such as O-Net Communications Technology and FiberHome Technologies also rose in sync. In addition, within the CPO concept, Robotechnics and Source Photonics also moved higher together. Moreover, shares of optical fiber names such as Fei-Tian Changfei Fiber frequently set new all-time highs, reflecting the sector’s strong momentum.

Behind the performance in the secondary market are the dual drivers of strong industry conditions and policy support. As global AI compute capacity buildouts accelerate, demand for optical modules, optical fiber and cables has remained robust. Upstream raw material prices have risen rapidly: in March 2026, the spot price of domestically sold G652.D bare optical fiber increased 165% from January, and was up 418% year on year, providing strong cost support. On the policy front, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently issued a notice on a pro-inclusiveness compute capacity special action, clarifying support for deploying technologies such as OCS to reduce network latency, bringing direct upside for infrastructure such as optical communications.

Many institutions believe that in the medium-to-long term, growth momentum in the communications equipment industry chain remains solid. Current AI compute capacity demand expansion is still in its early stage, and the global wave of large data center construction is continuing to advance, which will provide long-term support for the upcycle in upstream core components such as optical fibers and optical modules.

Fund performance gaps exceed 92 percentage points

At the start of the second quarter of 2026, the market has continued to trade with volatility, and differentiation in public fund performance has intensified. Driven by factors such as the Middle East geopolitical situation in the recent period, oil prices led gains among commodities, boosting the strong performance of related theme funds. Data show that as of April 3, the year-to-date returns of multiple oil-themed QDII funds have been far ahead. Specifically, the year-to-date returns of Southern Oil, Everbright Oil, and Harvest Oil are 64.91%, 59.71%, and 58.08%, respectively.

By contrast, ShanZheng Asset Management Digital Economy Select A had a year-to-date loss of 27.57%, and the top-to-bottom gap in year-to-date returns across all market funds has already exceeded 92 percentage points.

By comparison, the A-share market’s performance over the same period has been relatively volatile. As of April 3, the SSE Composite Index is down 2.24% year to date, the CSI 300 Index is down 4.09% year to date, and the ChiNext Index is down 1.67% year to date. Against the backdrop of heightened market volatility overall, oil and gas funds—having both commodity attributes and overseas asset allocation attributes—have become one of the few product directions that has stood out this year.

Guangfa Vision Select has performed strongly this year, with its gains reaching 60.29%. Among active equity funds, multiple funds—including Guoshou Anbao Digital Economy, Jinxin Quantitative Select, Pingyin Ansheng Digital Economy, Guoshou Anbao Strategy Select, Huashang Zhiyuan Return, Huatai-PB Quality Growth, Ping An Technology Select, and others—also achieved gains of more than 30%. From the distribution of overall performance, sector funds represented by the “optics” theme and oil-themed funds are both leading the market.

However, amid overall volatility in the A-share market, over half of active equity funds still have negative returns for the year. Wind data show that as of April 3, the return of the equity-focused hybrid fund index was only 0.24%, reflecting that active equity products have significantly differentiated performance overall and that their return structure is uneven.

Looking at the performance of individual funds, differentiation has been especially clear this year. Among them, the fund with the largest net asset value decline has dropped by more than 27%. Across the entire market, a total of 38 active equity funds have declined by more than 20% year to date. In terms of structure, many of the products near the top of the decline list are concentrated in specific themes or tracks such as internet stocks in Hong Kong, humanoid robots, and aviation.

Fund managers are optimistic about the compute capacity infrastructure mainline

Although volatility in the equity market has been large recently, many fund managers are still optimistic about structural opportunities in localized areas and firmly believe that what determines the stock pricing center of gravity is fundamentally the companies’ own profitability.

Chen Bingli, fund manager of Jiangsong Great Wall Stock Investment, said that overseas geopolitical conflicts have increased market volatility in stages and also created some disturbance to risk appetite. He believes that in the short term, such factors affect market pacing and valuation fluctuations more, but in the medium to long term, what determines the stock pricing center of gravity is still the companies’ profitability itself. In the artificial intelligence industry, around hardware optimization and technology upgrades in the inference stage, it is expected to become an important mainline for AI infrastructure in the next stage. He continues to look favorably at the performance realization ability and growth space in areas such as optical interconnects and heterogeneous computing.

Liu Jiang, fund manager at Great Wall Fund, pointed out that the current AI industry is still in the early-to-mid development stage, making it an important direction with long-term growth potential. In terms of investment layout, he has not blindly chased the “AI concept,” but rather focuses on links in the industrial chain with higher certainty, early beneficiaries, and clear competitive barriers—AI’s “shovel sellers,” namely the compute capacity infrastructure sector. Liu Jiang believes that compute capacity, as the core foundation for AI development, will continue to receive demand support from industrial expansion, and has strong potential for performance realization.

Within sub-directions along the compute capacity chain, Liu Jiang focuses on the optical communications sector. His reasoning is not only that compute capacity demand is growing, but more importantly that optical communications technology itself is undergoing important changes. He said that from the underlying industrial logic, optical communications, as a key link in the AI compute capacity chain, shows an upward trend in long-term penetration rates. Global technology giants also promoting the development of emerging technologies such as OCS and CPO further demonstrates the importance of optical interconnects, driving the continuous increase in the value volume of optical interconnects.

Chen Jinewei, fund manager of Penghua Fund, who dares to take a contrarian layout, is most optimistic about the midstream cyclical sector (represented by chemicals) and consumer healthcare with domestic-demand attributes. Especially benefiting from a “counter-involution” midstream cycle, he began significantly increasing holdings of the midstream industries represented by chemicals starting from the early third quarter of 2025. He believes that the market still has a significant expectation gap for it, and especially that the long-term value of the chemicals industry has not yet been sufficiently recognized. Consumer and healthcare are among the worst-performing sectors over the past five years, but Chen Jinewei has been optimistic about structural opportunities driven by domestic demand since 2025, and believes this may be the sector with the largest potential and the biggest expectation gap over the next five years. Although market sentiment toward the consumer sector is generally cautious, and even includes a certain level of irrational pessimism, the turning point may be right around the corner.