🔥Bitunix Analyst: Inflation-driven policy path, energy supply shock diffusion, BTC maintains a volatile pattern

Against the backdrop of escalating conflict in Iran and the de facto restriction of the Strait of Hormuz, market expectations for policy shifts within the year are beginning to waver. Federal Reserve officials emphasize that inflation takes precedence over employment, with the policy framework shifting toward unilateral defense amid supply shocks. The White House is attempting to use productivity gains from AI as a potential reason to cut interest rates, reflecting internal policy disagreements over future inflation trajectories. The IMF has clearly indicated that the world is entering a high-inflation, low-growth phase, with energy supply contractions permeating into fertilizers, transportation, and industrial chains, making inflation more sticky and reinforcing the rationale for central banks to maintain a tightening stance. Cross-market capital flows reflect delayed rate cuts and sustained high real interest rate expectations, suppressing valuations of risk assets, with funds favoring defensive and cash flow assets. BT…
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