How does the closure of the Strait of Mandes affect global trade? Analysts warn that European trade could be completely paralyzed.

The Iran’s Supreme Leader’s foreign affairs adviser, Velayati, warned the United States last week that the Iran Resistance Front could further block the Strait of Mandeb. The impact of this move would not be limited to the ongoing war—it could also intensify the conflict and trigger a global energy supply crisis.

In 2024, about 4.1 billion barrels of crude oil and refined products passed through the Strait of Mandeb, accounting for 5% of the global total. If the Strait of Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz are closed at the same time, they would block 25% of global oil and natural gas supplies, while also further hitting maritime transport moving from Asia to Europe.

Globally, about 10% of trade must pass through the Strait of Mandeb, including container shipments from China, India, and other Asian countries to Europe. Against the backdrop of Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Mandeb’s importance to Europe rises further.

Elisabeth Kendall, Dean of the Gorton College at the University of Cambridge, warned that if the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Mandeb are both restricted, Europe’s trade would face serious disruption, and could even be completely paralyzed.

But she also believes that while controlling the Strait of Mandeb may be tempting for Yemen’s Houthis, they may not be willing to anger Saudi Arabia in doing so, nor would they want to trigger a wider chain reaction.

Oil transport grinds to a halt

Iran-backed Houthi forces entered the Strait of Mandeb at the height of the most intense period of the Israel-Palestine conflict, forming an effective blockade. It was not until May 2025 that they reached a ceasefire agreement with the United States and reopened the Strait of Mandeb.

And since late March this year, the Houthis have begun firing missiles and drones at Israel, which may mean the group intends to take part in the U.S.-Iran-Israel conflict. However, Nabeel Khoury, a former U.S. diplomat, said the Houthis’ missile attacks on Israel amount to symbolic participation rather than full-scale involvement.

Khoury emphasized that the Houthis’ real weapon is blocking the Strait of Mandeb. They only need to fire at a few vessels transiting the area, and all merchant ships passing through the Red Sea would be unable to sail. This is a red line; once crossed, people will quickly see the United States and Israel launch attacks on Yemen.

On the other hand, if the Strait of Mandeb is blocked, Saudi Arabia—dependent on pipeline exports to move oil—would also find it difficult to stand aside. More and more, it is routing its oil through the Red Sea ports, transshipping via Aden. Once the Strait of Mandeb is disrupted, Saudi crude would be hard to flow to Asia.

Allison Minor of the Atlantic Council previously pointed out that with the Strait of Hormuz under blockade, Saudi Arabia is becoming increasingly reliant on Red Sea routes to maintain its oil exports to Asia. If the Red Sea route is disrupted, oil from the Gulf region would stop flowing completely within a matter of weeks.

(Source: Caixin Finance)