The Middle East war has led to a surge in Europe’s heat pump heating demand, and China’s heat pump export model is set to change.

This February, China’s heat pump exports to Europe surged sharply. The Middle East war has caused energy prices to skyrocket, which will further boost Europe’s heat pump demand. Meanwhile, the EU’s Industrial Accelerator Act will shift pure export-driven models toward cooperation models.

Against the backdrop of the Middle East war pushing up energy prices, China’s outlook for exporting heat pumps to Europe this year looks promising. At the same time, the EU is about to release the Industrial Accelerator Act, and China’s heat pump export model to Europe is also facing a shift.

On April 3, Wang Suchen, a senior analyst at research institute Industry Online, told First Finance that from January to February 2026, China’s heat pump export value to Europe grew year on year by more than 50%. Specifically, in February, export value rose by 81.8% to 930 million yuan, with the main destination being Europe. The Middle East war has driven oil and natural gas prices to surge wildly over nearly the past month, which will further boost growth in Europe’s heat pump demand.

According to data from Industry Online, over the past five years (2021 to 2025), the global compound annual growth rate of air-source heat pumps’ sales reached 7.6%, and in 2025 global sales were 4.46 million units, up 5% year on year. In Europe, air-source heat pump sales in 2025 were 1.5M units, up 29% year on year. In 2025, China exported 803k air-source heat pump units to Europe, up 32% year on year.

After the outbreak of the Middle East conflict this year, Europe’s energy supply has become tight. In the UK, new rules have been issued requiring that all new residential buildings in England must install heat pumps and solar panels. “High oil and gas prices are driving a transition in energy and heating methods. In the future, the growth room for Europe’s heating market is huge, and heat pumps replacing traditional energy for heating is expected to accelerate,” Wang Suchen said.

Besides the heat pump heating demand for newly built homes in Europe, in the future the update of the existing stock market of 140 million to 150 million wall-mounted boilers in Europe will also make heat pumps a bigger choice. Wang Suchen expects Europe’s heat pump market growth rate in 2026 to reach double digits.

Currently, China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of heat pumps. In 2025, China’s heat pump output was 803k units, down 6.5% year on year. Wang Suchen expects that this year China’s domestic heat pump market growth will still face pressure, but with surging demand in overseas markets such as Europe, the growth rate of China’s heat pump output in 2026 is expected to turn positive again.

Chinese companies are also actively expanding the heat pump market in Europe. Last month, at the Heating and Air Conditioning Exhibition held in Milan, Italy, Haier launched a “heat pump and water heater integrated solution,” and Gree also rolled out an all-in-one heat pump supporting multiple modes such as cooling, heating, and hot water. Previously, Midea had acquired HVAC companies such as Clivet in Europe, and its annual heat pump production capacity in Italy reaches 300k units.

Xiao Youyuan, chairman of San You Technology, told First Finance that the production of heating boilers in Europe’s factories has been somewhat stalled. Europe’s heating market is shifting toward more energy-efficient heat pumps, which is an opportunity for Chinese companies. But there are also risks and uncertainties. With the EU’s Industrial Accelerator Act coming soon, it will provide more support for local brands, which will have some impact on imported products.

Xiao Youyuan believes that going forward, if Chinese companies expand the European market purely through export approaches, they will be affected. It is expected that some boiler companies in Europe will launch some heat pump projects, while Chinese companies still need to strengthen their local brands and channels. San You will set up a joint venture with European companies to cooperate in heat pump R&D and supply, and will also acquire some local channels.

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