【20260407 Late Night Ramblings】 Downtrend Continuation

[Taoguba]

Market Index: It closed through 3881 by one point just kidding The direction is down; 3849 still needs to keep moving. Rotation weights have dropped sharply and bottoming is in place. Sentiment is diverging. Keep bearish. The pullback is a continuation. At least the people who bottom-ticked will get trapped twice.

If the All-A index directly repairs, it’s basically game over. Then just hang another batch on top. Most likely everyone will be watching for the repair. So tomorrow’s repair board is for trapping people. If it directly gaps down and breaks through on the downside, it can at least reduce some tragedy.

Theme sentiment:

1. The medicine sector is on the main line—no question. It has already shown a floor. Tomorrow it will run into divergence. No need to look at Jinqi Drug. There’s a trick called “turning the tide again,” and also “reverse gear to pick people up.”

2. Tomorrow you can hardly buy tech. If you do buy, it’s all yours. You need to wait until the index adjustment is in place. Anything that gets lifted up here is a run—no matter what tech it is.

Now you can say it’s extremely easy to trade and very easy to choose. It all comes down to how deep each person’s self-conflict runs—when you’ve exhausted it, when you can see clearly. But if your mindset isn’t good, it’s hard to get in. You can wait another two days for the index to solidify, then follow the majority. Currently, all actions are based on prediction—if you’re wrong, it means a massive losing trade.

Tomorrow’s market is likely one that keeps liking to take “big losses” and keep eating big losses, and those who like “big gains” keep eating big gains. It will be sorted directly, because from the Friday position model allocation: 70% of babies are fully in, bottom-catching at the close to bet on a repair; 25% get caught midway; and 10% are basically on the top board, dumping cleanly to wait for the next day. Just look at that arrangement—on the next day, the babies’ takeover rally will leave less than 20% to work with. There’s no way to hold up against the repair’s persistence. The only way is the “woof-woof team.”

Thinking: The past two days tested faith in the leader. Tomorrow tests whoever is following. Prediction. Confrontation. The “maintenance” group will almost all get wiped. Reiterate it again: right now there’s no themes—only instruments. There’s no sentiment—only a chess game of liquidity and positions.

Sleep… . . . . . .

The statements above do not constitute any investment advice. It’s just mindlessly talking after losing money like an idiot.