Galaxy Securities A-Share Strategy: Changes in crude oil prices will continue to be a key variable influencing the recent market structure.

People’s Finance and Information, April 7: A Galaxy Securities outlook for the A-share market’s investment prospects stated that, from the external environment, the military conflict between the U.S. and Iran has continued to escalate, ceasefire talks remain unclear, and Trump set an April 6 final deadline. The intensity and scope of Iran’s retaliatory response have expanded. With uncertainty over the conflict still high and the trend still not clear, global equity markets are expected to remain in a high-volatility environment, and China’s A-shares may show characteristics of choppy rotation. Changes in crude oil price movements will remain a key variable affecting the market structure in the near term. If oil prices rise, they will push up global inflation expectations, and delayed rate-cut expectations will lead to a tightening at the margin of global liquidity, which will strengthen the trading logic of the energy substitution sector and the portfolio-protecting role of defensive sectors, while partially weighing on the performance of more aggressive sectors such as technology growth. Meanwhile, if oil prices later see volatility and decline under expectations of conflict easing, and easing expectations rebound, that would be favorable for the repair of the growth stock market.

From the internal environment, the core logic has not changed: policy support, capital entering the market, and the reassessment of Chinese assets. At the same time, external conflict has not shaken the long-term “slow bull” foundation of China’s A-shares. Additionally, in April, listed companies’ earnings enter a period of concentrated disclosure. As investment themes gradually shift toward fundamental validation, sectors with high earnings certainty and ongoing improvement in business conditions will become the core direction for capital focus.