Zijin Mining and other stocks are recommended; opportunities may exist in manufacturing going overseas and other areas | Brokerage Golden Stocks

Ask AI · What are the investment logics behind “gold stocks” such as Zijin Mining?

In the last trading day of March, the three major A-share indexes all fell. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 0.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.81%, and the ChiNext Index dropped 2.7%. The combined trading value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was below 2 trillion yuan. More than 4,300 stocks across the market declined. In terms of sectors, industries and concepts such as tunnel boring machines, high-speed rail tracks, and the sports industry, as well as complete-vehicle autos, banks, and precious metals led the gains; industries and concepts such as coal, coal-chemical products, methanol, coal mining and selection, energy metals, and electronic chemicals led the declines.

Looking back at March’s market performance, due to Middle East geopolitical risks affecting A-shares this month, the overall trend showed “a rise followed by a pullback, then gradually stabilizing.” Early in the month, the Shanghai Index briefly broke above the interim high reached on January 14, then traded in a volatile and weakening trend, and ultimately again fell below the 3,900-point level. For the month, the Shanghai Index fell cumulatively by 6.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell cumulatively by 7.01%, the ChiNext Index fell cumulatively by 3.79%, the Beijing 50 fell cumulatively by 18.79%, and the STAR Market 50 fell cumulatively by 15.57%. In terms of industries, among the 26 first-tier industries tracked by Shenwan, only 3 recorded gains for the month. The top three gainers were: Banking (3.93%), Public Utilities (1.25%), and Coal (1.11%). Among the declining industries, Non-ferrous Metals (-17.21%) had the largest drop, followed by National Defense and Military Industry (-15.93%) and Steel (-15.55%).

What kind of market action will unfold next in April? Which “gold stocks” are favored by institutions? And what allocation recommendations have they provided? Next, let’s take a look together.

According to incomplete statistics, more than 10 brokerages have already released their April investment portfolios and the latest market viewpoints.

Looking across these reports, many institutions believe the market adjustment has been sufficient, there is no risk of a systemic major decline in the indexes, and in April one can seize opportunities to plan and position for the future.

CITIC Securities states that in the short term, the market may still face volatility, but there is no risk of a systemic major decline in the indexes. Overseas financial markets have not yet reached the level that would trigger “TACO.” It is possible that geopolitical risks may continue to fluctuate in the short term. At present, concerns about a second geopolitical shock in the A-share market are gathering, and market risk appetite is unlikely to achieve smooth restoration in the short run. However, there is no need to worry too much— the market is expected to have no systemic risk.

Everbright Securities points out that China’s internal assets have stability. In the medium term, there is potential for volatile upward movement, creating opportunities for positioning and allocation. Domestically, China’s energy self-sufficiency rate is relatively high, which provides a certain level of resistance to sustained increases in external energy prices. In addition, based on several rounds of overseas volatility in the past, domestic exports typically benefit when external uncertainty rises—possibly thanks to the stability of domestic supply chains.

CITICJian Investment Securities states that the situation of the Iran–U.S. conflict has cooled somewhat, and global market panic sentiment has begun to recover. However, the U.S. military’s latest deployment plan targeting Iran still indicates a risk that the war could escalate, so attention needs to be paid to fluctuations in market sentiment over the coming month. Since the A-share market has adjusted sufficiently, investors can wait for bullish signals and position at the right time.

In terms of industry allocation, many institutions have mentioned in their recent investment strategy reports the opportunity to position in three directions: energy security, manufacturing going global, and dividend defense:

(1) Energy security: As the global electrification process accelerates, China’s photovoltaic, wind power, lithium batteries, and power equipment are expected to capture a stronger share of external-demand dividends.

(2) Manufacturing going global: International manufacturing competitors have shut down capacity due to high energy costs and carbon-related mechanisms. In an environment where the oil-price mid-point is being raised, the cost resilience of midstream manufacturing industries such as China Chemical is further highlighted.

(3) Dividend defense: In a backdrop of frequent geopolitical conflicts and relatively weak global economic growth momentum, dividend assets’ certainty and defensive attributes have extremely high allocation value, such as banks and electric power, etc.

Among the more than 10 brokerages’ April “gold stock” recommendations, stocks such as Zijin Mining, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and Innovent Biologics/Biotech have been recommended by institutions 3 times; stocks such as CATL, China Shenhua, and China Taiping have been recommended 2 times as well.

Some of the recommended situations are as follows:

(1) Driven by demand pull from new energy, the copper cycle’s prosperity is moving upward, and the industry’s high prosperity is expected to be sustained. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of de-globalization, the investment value of gold has increased significantly.

(2) Short-term logic: The world’s second-largest copper mine, Grasberg, has suffered a mining accident and has stopped production. Supply concerns have intensified, and copper prices are expected to rise.

(3) Medium- to long-term logic: The high-growth value of mining leaders is becoming prominent, and replenishment and capacity expansion continue to advance.

(1) If the risk of the Iran–U.S. conflict is resolved later, and sea channel shipping returns to normal, the geopolitical premium will fade, market risk appetite will recover quickly, and copper prices will return to being priced according to fundamentals.

(2) The new energy transition continues to advance. Emerging areas such as AI + energy storage + new wind and solar power bring incremental demand. During the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, the State Grid’s 4 trillion yuan fixed-asset investment plan provides an expectation of long-term, stable support for copper demand.

(1) The company has a clear advantage in oil and gas production costs; barrel oil costs continue to be compressed, bringing strong profitability to the company;

(2) The company maintains relatively high capital expenditures. Oil and gas production volume and reserves continue to grow at a high speed, and overseas and domestic projects continue to steadily contribute incremental production.

(1) The situation in Iran is tense geographically and geopolitically. Oil, as an important strategic petroleum reserve asset, highlights its safe-haven attributes, improving its allocation value. In the outlook, oil prices are expected to show a volatile but relatively strong trend.

(2) The company’s resource endowment is high quality, with low-cost advantages. It continues to promote the development and extraction of domestic offshore oil and gas resources, and to explore high-quality overseas oilfields such as in Iraq and Guyana, increasing production while building reserves and making steady progress in storing oil and maintaining reserves.

(3) The company commits that its full-year dividend payout ratio for 2025–2027 will be no less than 45%, providing shareholders with higher dividend returns.

(1) In 2025, revenue and profit set new historical highs again, and ongoing business operations maintain steady growth in the order book.

(2) The small-molecule D&M business maintains strong growth. In 2025, 839 new molecules were added, and the total pipeline molecules are 3,452.

(3) The TIDES business grows rapidly. By the end of 2025, the number of TIDESD&M service customers increased by 25% year over year, the number of served molecules increased by 45% year over year, and TIDES orders on hand increased by 20.2% year over year.

(1) The CXO industry continues to see high global growth, and the domestic market’s growth rate leads the way; innovative drug demand strengthens the industry’s underlying base.

(2) The company exceeded its full-year guidance by an overachieved amount, and performance continues to set new highs.

(1) The company is the global leader in optical transceiver modules, with extremely strong core competitiveness.

(2) Scale-up applications are expected to provide growth momentum. As the number of GPUs per single node continues to increase, requirements for transmission distance and bandwidth are getting higher and higher. Copper cable connections are approaching a bottleneck, and the penetration rate of optical interconnect technology in scale-up networks is expected to increase further.

(1) On the demand side, the market is currently in the mature stage for 800G optical transceiver modules, and in the early stage of ramping for 1.6T optical transceiver modules. We expect that in 2026, demand for both will still maintain relatively fast growth. The demand volume for 1.6T optical transceiver modules is expected to show quarter-by-quarter high growth momentum. As an industry leader, the company is expected to benefit first from industry expansion dividends.

(1) The industry’s competition stage has hit a cyclical low point at present. As an industry leader, the company is expected to recover first. Volume growth is expected to be higher than the industry average. With pricing improved by tightening and new product introductions, the company’s 2026 revenue is expected to grow steadily and its net profit margin is expected to improve;

(2) The current valuation is at a relatively low level, offering a margin of safety.

(1) The company is capturing the trend toward dining and retailing. It has deep cooperation with Sam’s Club, Walmart, and Hema, and has launched customized products. With its low costs, fast R&D, and high premium pricing, the supermarket model has become a clear new performance engine.

(1) The company is a global leader in lithium batteries, with extremely strong earnings resilience. Under geopolitical disruptions, oil and gas prices rise, and the strategic position of new energy is elevated.

(2) In terms of powertrain, the penetration rate of electric vehicles in both domestic and overseas markets is expected to continue rising. In terms of energy storage, as the capacity electricity pricing mechanism is gradually implemented, expectations for the returns of domestic independent energy storage are improving.

_ (Source: China Galaxy Securities, Western Securities, Everbright Securities, Guojin Securities, Ping An Securities, CITIC Securities, Kaiyuan Securities, Guolian Minsheng, Caitong Securities, Xingye Securities, Huatai Securities, Guoxin Securities, Pacific, Yingda Securities, Dongxing Securities, Huaxin Securities, CITICJian Investment, CITIC Securities, Wanlian Securities) _

_ (Disclaimer: The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors act at their own risk, and the risks are borne by investors.) _