Why is JPMorgan warning that Tesla's stock price could drop another 60%?

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) expects Tesla (TSLA) shares to drop sharply.

In a research note published on Monday, JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman wrote: “Market expectations for all financial and performance metrics for Tesla through the end of 2030 have been broadly marked down, and against this backdrop, Tesla’s stock is still up 50%, the analysts’ target price has been raised by 32%. This implies that investors are betting that its performance will improve dramatically after 2030—much better than previously expected.”

He said: “We recommend that investors take a cautious view of this outlook, factoring in execution risk and the time value of capital.”

Brinkman added: “We think investors should remain cautious when assessing an upside inflection point in Tesla’s performance after 2030—at which time performance is expected to be significantly better than previously expected, in stark contrast to the current situation that falls far short of expectations.”

Brinkman reiterated his Sell rating for Tesla, gave a $145 target price, and expects the stock to plunge about 60% from current levels.

Tesla’s stock has fallen 20% this year, making it the worst performer among the “Magnificent Seven” stocks.

Brinkman’s target price is bearish in Wall Street terms—according to data from Yahoo Finance, analysts’ average target price for this stock is $360.

As this price warning is issued, market concerns about Tesla’s financial performance continue to build.

Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1, missing analysts’ expectations of about 366k to 370k. While up 6.3% year over year, this growth is built on a lower base, and the absolute figure has fallen sharply quarter over quarter from a record level in the prior quarter.

There remain many unfavorable factors facing Tesla.

The Trump administration terminated, at the end of last year, the U.S. federal $7,500 electric-vehicle tax credit policy, dealing a major blow to demand for electric vehicles in the U.S. Moreover, sustained high interest rates have also increased the cost of auto financing for ordinary consumers.

Meanwhile, Tesla is also being squeezed hard by competitive Chinese EV players such as BYD, while also facing competition from traditional automakers like Mercedes-Benz, General Motors, and Ford—these automakers may be moving at a slower pace, but they are still continuing to push EV production.

To retain investors who are firmly bullish on Tesla, CEO Elon Musk pledged that 2026 will be a big year for Tesla’s new products.

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