Gold and Oil Insights: Gold gaps down sharply at open, causing a fright; crude oil fluctuates and consolidates at high levels

Spot Gold:

On April 6, news flow: After the Asian trading market opened on Monday (April 6), the gold price dropped sharply. Previously, U.S. President Donald Trump increased his threats, saying he would destroy Iran’s power plants, while Tehran showed almost no signs of accepting the United States’ demands to end the war in the Middle East. Earlier in the morning, gold prices fell by 1.4% at one point, breaking below 4610 USD/oz; this followed a 1.7% decline in the prior trading day. In weekend social media posts, Trump said that if Iran does not open the Strait of Hormuz, it will let it “suffer a hellish blow”; Tehran rejected this final ultimatum and continued to launch attacks on the region’s energy infrastructure.

Technical analysis: On the daily chart, the current macd is at a low level and has just formed a bullish cross; the stochastics indicator (sto) has moved out of an overbought hook and is repairing downward, representing a near-term price range of high-level consolidation. Today, we only need to watch the support at the prior week’s 4 low—i.e., around the MA10 moving average support at about 4580. As long as the price does not fall below this level, there is a possibility of further upside rebound. On the upside, the main focus is the midline pressure and the area around the MA60 moving average, corresponding to the 4754 and 4805 zone. Last week, international gold prices traded for two consecutive days below the 20-day moving average, which continues to slope downward to 4755 at present, so medium-term still faces suppression. In the short term, on the 2-hour timeframe, price has found support around 4600 (MA60). Overhead pressure is concentrated at 4673-4687 (MA20/120). In general, it can be basically confirmed that the Asia session trading range is 4600-4687. If today’s gold price can break upward through 4690, bulls may further open up upside room, and then we can further watch 4750 and 4796. But if spot gold breaks down below 4590 in this area, then the one-hour structure will top and turn bearish; by then, it will most likely open a new wave of short positions. Key focus today: resistance around 4690-4742 USD, and support around 4600-4560 USD.

Gold intraday reference strategy:

Short positions: Enter in the aggressive 4690±5 range; for a more conservative approach, enter again in the 4735±5 range. Stop loss: about 20 USD each. Targets: 50/100 USD!

Long positions: Enter in the aggressive 4597±5 range; for a more conservative approach, enter again in the 4560±5 range. Stop loss: about 20 USD each. Targets: 50/100 USD!

【Recommendation: Focus on selling at high levels. GOLD pivot: 4700 USD/oz! The views above are for reference only; diversify and allocate reasonably, and strictly control risk!

WTI Crude Oil:

News flow: With global energy markets under high tension, U.S. President Trump’s ultimatum to Iran is now in a critical countdown phase. Trump demanded that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz before Tuesday (8:00 p.m. ET), otherwise he will carry out severe strikes on Iran’s power plants and bridges. This hardline statement directly drove oil prices sharply higher. On Monday (April 6), in the Asian session early trading, U.S. crude rose by more than 3% to 115.48 USD per barrel. It then pulled back as short-term long positions took profits, and is now around 113 USD per barrel, with the gain narrowing to 1.3%. Geopolitical risk and supply disruptions are currently overlapping, and they are reshaping the fundamental landscape of the crude oil market. Traders need to closely monitor how the situation evolves in order to respond to potential dramatic volatility.

Technical analysis: From a technical perspective, given that last week the 100-period moving average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart rebounded and broke back above the 116.00 psychological level, the short-term bias is bullish. Although recent volatility has increased, the overall uptrend remains intact. In addition, the latest Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) readings have rebounded; the lines have returned to positive territory, the histogram has improved, indicating that after a brief loss of momentum, buyers have regained control of the situation. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 61, staying above the midline but not yet entering the overbought zone, showing sustained upside momentum with no signs of fatigue. Therefore, any subsequent pullback may attract buying near 109.0 USD, which is a stable zone for recent intraday pullbacks; then there is stronger support near 106.2 USD. On the upside, the initial resistance is around the recent high of 115.0 USD. If the market can clearly break through that area, it will open space for further probing into the 118.0/120.0 USD zone. Intraday focus: resistance at 115.0-118.0, and support at 108.8/106.2.

Crude oil intraday reference strategy:

Short positions: Aggressive 115±0.2 range; conservative 117.5±0.2 range. Stop loss‌: about 0.6 each. Target price‌: around 109.0!

Long positions: Aggressive 108.8±0.2 range; conservative 106.2±0.2 range. Stop loss‌: about 0.6 each. Target price‌: around 114.0!

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Edited by Chen Ping