Just now, a collective surge! Middle East, big news

To invest in stocks, just look at analysis reports from Jin Qilin’s analysts—authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive. Help you uncover high-potential theme opportunities!

【Intro】 Some developments in the Middle East, and the latest assessments from the top ten brokerages

China Fund News reporter Taylor

Brothers and sisters, the market is about to open soon. Let’s take a look back at the big events of the mini-holiday, and also see the latest assessments from brokerage analysts.

Storage chip shares surge collectively

On the evening of April 6, after the start of trading in the U.S., U.S. storage-related stocks jumped sharply. Seagate Technology rose 9%, SanDisk rose by about 4%, Western Digital rose 5%, and Micron Technology rose 4%.

Major event in the Middle East

The last-ditch plan: a 45-day ceasefire, but Trump hasn’t given the go-ahead yet

The multinational group mediating to end the Iran war has already drafted a proposal: first achieve a 45-day ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz—yet at the same time, U.S. President Trump is threatening a major escalation of the conflict.

The plan was submitted to the U.S. and Iran late on Sunday, and is seen as a “last-ditch effort,” aiming to prevent large-scale strikes against Iran’s power plants and other infrastructure that Trump had threatened earlier—on the condition that the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

A White House official said Trump has not approved the proposal.

“This is only one of many ideas.” The official said, adding that U.S. military operations in Iran are still being advanced. Trump is expected to deliver remarks on the war issue at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time at the White House.

Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey have long served as mediators between the two countries in the U.S.-Iran relationship. But negotiations stalled in recent days, and efforts to push for face-to-face talks appear to have also been halted.

The latest proposal has been submitted to Iran’s foreign minister and the U.S. special envoy. The outside world hopes that this 45-day ceasefire window can buy time for negotiations to finally end the conflict.

However, Iran appears to have already rejected any temporary ceasefire, believing it would give the opponent a chance to catch its breath and prepare for the next phase of the war.

Despite that, the mediators still hope to have the plan implemented before the final deadline set by Trump—by 8:00 p.m. Tuesday Eastern Time.

The third Turkish vessel successfully passes through the Strait of Hormuz

Turkey’s transportation minister said on social media that a Turkish-owned vessel has safely passed through the Strait of Hormuz. This is the third Turkish ship to successfully cross the strait since the war broke out.

Hours earlier, Iran’s embassy in Malaysia said on the social platform X that the first Malaysian vessel has been granted permission to pass through this critical “choke point,” adding that Iran “will not forget its friends.”

Previously, Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency reported that over the past 24 hours, Iran has approved a total of 15 vessels to pass through the strait. Since the outbreak of the war, Tehran has largely shut down the Strait of Hormuz’s international shipping route.

At present, only a small number of ships are able to pass through the strait each day, whereas the number typically exceeds 100 vessels before the war.

Israeli strikes on Iran’s largest petrochemical facility

Israel’s Defense Minister Katz said that on Monday, Israel’s armed forces struck Iran’s largest petrochemical facility, the latest in a series of strikes by Israel targeting Iran’s key economic infrastructure.

Katz said these facilities are located in Asaluyeh, accounting for about 50% of Iran’s nationwide petrochemical output.

He also said that combined with last week’s strikes on the Mahshahr petrochemical complex, Israel has destroyed production capacity accounting for about 85% of Iran’s petrochemical exports.

Latest assessments from the top ten brokerages

1．CITIC Securities: Tighten the circle, focus

TACO’s possibility still exists, but market funds’ patience has already been used up. We expect the war to be nearing its end toward the close of this month, but the chances of the Strait of Hormuz becoming “weaponized” and intermittent disruptions to the supply chain are increasing. At present, among five fundamental clues (dividends, going overseas, AI, PPI, and domestic consumption), only PPI, domestically-made AI, and consumption have not been priced in sufficiently. After the war calms down, the transmission from oil → PPI → corporate earnings is the most important fundamental factor among these. Domestically-made AI is a relatively independent industry change, while transactions related to domestic consumption are likely to lag behind PPI transactions. Of course, the “PPI → corporate earnings” trade will only start once the war ends and oil prices peak. As the market cools down, allocations should gradually tighten the circle and continue focusing on China’s advantageous manufacturing.

2．Guojin Strategy: The market is not in a steady state right now

The market’s structure is not a steady state. If fighting escalates, the so-called resilient assets currently will also face catch-up declines. If things ease, it may not be the optimal solution. In fact, the source of the biggest shocks right now is energy. Only resilient assets that can resolve energy contradictions are truly resilient assets; an increase in energy’s share of global GDP is highly likely.

Based on the information available today, considering the combined expected value of the two scenarios, and adding expectations that the market will be more optimistic, we make the following recommendations: first, as the world enters a cycle of replenishing energy stocks, new and old energy are expected to resonate together (oil, oil shipping, coal, lithium batteries, wind/solar, energy storage). Second, after the “dollar mirage” gradually fades, the financial attribute of commodities is set to swing back, paired with a recovery in demand for copper, aluminum, and gold. Third, revaluation in China’s manufacturing: machinery and equipment, and chemical industry. When China’s manufacturing becomes the global ballast, sustained exports above expectations and the return of funds will also bring new drivers to domestic demand that has been dormant. Seek structural opportunities under a turnaround of factors that suppress performance—tourism and scenic spots, seasoning and fermentation products, beer and other alcoholic beverages, pharmaceutical distribution/commerce, aesthetic medicine, and so on.

3．Shenwan Hongyuan Strategy: Under the U.S.-Iran conflict, the macro scenarios are about to converge

The current A-share pricing still leaves room for both upside and downside risks; it is a neutral valuation, but not a steady-state valuation. The market is still re-pricing its medium-term scenario assumptions and probability distributions based on catalysts from the U.S.-Iran conflict. In the short term, market volatility remains relatively high, and it is not the time for heavy bets. Over the medium term, as macro scenarios gradually converge, the market still lacks the final key convergence (even if the U.S. initiates ground combat, it would likely withdraw quickly). Once the key convergence is realized, the moment when the U.S.-Iran conflict has the biggest impact on capital markets will have passed, and risk appetite may bottom out and rebound.

4．CITIC Guojian Strategy: The market is waiting for a bargain-hunting entry point

The situation in Iran is continuing to escalate and is complex and changeable. The market is repeatedly fluctuating around negotiation signals. At the same time, U.S.-Israeli military actions are shifting from aerial strikes to preparations for ground operations. The next 2 to 3 weeks remain a high-risk period when the situation could deteriorate rapidly. The market is waiting for the timing to buy on dips, and near-term funds are heavily in a wait-and-see stance. On the other hand, internal fundamental factors deserve renewed attention. A series of data collectively supports an improving economic trend. As March economic data is about to be released and the earnings season approaches, the market’s focus will gradually shift toward substantive verification of the strength of economic recovery and improvement in corporate earnings.

Build positions patiently along three lines of reasoning: the energy security and inflation main theme, certain growth assets, policy beneficiaries and peak-season cyclical prosperity directions. Key industries to watch include: oil and gas production, coal, coal chemical industry, power equipment, utilities, chemical industry, AI industry chain, innovative drugs, infrastructure construction industry chain, service consumption, and more.

5．China Merchants Strategy: Conflict not over, and survival in desperate times

Looking ahead to April, external risks faced by A-shares have not been materially eased. There is a risk that the U.S.-Iran conflict could escalate beyond expectations. Further upward pressure on oil prices will intensify market worries about global stagflation and economic slowdown. If in mid-to-late April the U.S. military launches a ground offensive—whether due to battle casualties exceeding expectations, or because oil prices surge and trigger a deep pullback across global stock markets—Trump’s administration may be forced to turn to a de-escalation strategy. The market may then play out a typical “dilemma reversal”行情.

Domestically, with the conclusion of the two sessions of China’s national People’s Congress and the “15th Five-Year Plan”纲要 release in March, subsequent key investment projects are expected to be rolled out faster, becoming a core driving force pushing domestic investment growth to rebound. If external shocks cause a significant increase in economic uncertainty, there may be expectations of further policy intensification to stabilize growth by the late-April Politburo meeting. After external shocks subside, in mid-to-late April the market focus will shift to the high-growth areas of Q1 earnings. Non-ferrous metals and petrochemicals and other resource sectors, as well as new energy, optical communications, and the semiconductor industry chain, are expected to become the industries with the most outstanding earnings growth.

6．Hua’an Strategy: How to view the latest overseas developments, such as the U.S.-Iran conflict and nonfarm data?

U.S. President Trump is swinging between “declaring victory” and increasing the intensity of strikes on Iran, so uncertainty remains high. March U.S. nonfarm employment data was slightly better than expected, adding to concerns about inflation as oil prices rise. But Fed Chair Powell said it is appropriate to stand pat before inflation pressure becomes evident. Concerns about global liquidity tightening have been eased slightly, which is positive for risk asset prices to stabilize. Overall, external factors have improved at the margin slightly, but uncertainty remains; the market continues to trade in a volatile range.

7．Soochow Strategy: “April decision” under external disturbances

Geopolitical conflict is escalating at the margin, but it is still within a controllable range. In recent days, both sides in the U.S.-Iran conflict have signaled willingness to negotiate, but the game has fallen into a stalemate and the risk of a phased escalation has increased. The targets of the conflict impacts are shifting from military objectives toward spillover into infrastructure. The U.S. has already deployed ground forces into the Middle East, while Iran is transmitting its stance signals through large-scale mobilization and hardline statements.

We believe that although both sides still have negotiation demands going forward, if progress is blocked, they will most likely raise the opponent’s costs with military actions and seize initiative in the game. The overall pattern may evolve into the characteristics of “fighting while negotiating, repeatedly pulling and hauling,” with market sentiment rotating in alternating cycles. The macro and micro game continues; seize the “April decision” window. Due to normal seasonal effects, April will continue to price fundamentals, especially whether the standout data from January to February can continue. From the perspective of domestic demand, the real estate-related supply chain remains the core variable. Although secondary home transactions in first-tier cities have warmed up, it still needs further observation on whether they are trend-like and whether they are driven by factors such as seasonality and foreign exchange settlement/sales. From the perspective of external demand, geopolitics is still the core disturbance item. Unless the U.S. Congress authorizes otherwise, the market generally expects the war to end by the end of April, at which point overseas fundamentals may become clearer.

8．Xingzheng Strategy: How should we look at the overall trend and structure in April?

The market does not need to doubt that this conflict will turn into a long-term, expanded comprehensive war just because of Trump’s recent remarks and the sharp rise in oil prices; “short-term possible escalation, medium-term moving toward de-escalation” remains the baseline scenario. For April, in terms of the overall trend, it is more important to focus on the establishment of a “market bottom” and opportunities for bottom allocation that could be brought about by potential escalation in the situation. After both sides enter into substantive negotiations, the market gradually returns to normal and the conditions for a repair rally begin, in which “what I do matters more than others.”

9．Bank of China Securities: Be patient with short-term positions; save strength for medium- and long-term allocation

The market is still not out of the geopolitical storm period. Short-term positions still need patience; save strength for medium- and long-term allocation.

In the short term, overseas markets’ risk appetite continues to face downward pressure, and the market may further gradually price in stagflation and even recession expectations. Currently, the struggle for control of the Strait of Hormuz and the crude oil supply-chain crisis have not yet produced a solution that can be implemented, so market concerns about crude oil supply are still rising. As geopolitical uncertainty increases coupled with energy costs climbing, it will continue to suppress risk appetite and earnings expectations for developed market equity assets represented by U.S. stocks, further pushing the logic of overseas risk assets’ pricing from stagflation to recession.

10．Everbright Strategy: Volatility does not change resilience; wait for catalyst signals

Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict, industry performance differences have been significant, and the two categories with the most obvious adjustments are as follows: one is growth-related directions that were previously high on the curve; the other is resource-related products in which product prices have been significantly affected. If the market sees a reversal in the future, these two types of industries may deliver better performance.

At the same time, we suggest paying attention to industries expected to benefit from higher commodity prices, including resource-related sectors, essential consumption, hard tech, and directions related to government investment. In addition, high-growth industries in the annual reports and Q1 reports deserve key attention, likely mainly concentrated in resource-related and technology-related industries.

A massive amount of information and precise interpretation—on the Sina Finance app

责任编辑：杨红卜