Look for a bottom tomorrow and then a recovery.

After the market bottoms tomorrow, watch for the repair

[Taoguba]
I share personal trading notes. If you like it, please follow, like, and share—thank you.

In short-term trading, it’s all about sentiment; individual stocks are just a vehicle for that sentiment.

Risk control is always the top priority—you must firmly and consistently follow trading discipline.

Let’s review the market

In Thursday’s article, I said that on Friday the market would rebound after hitting the bottom—directly slapped in the face. There was a rebound during the session, you can see it from the intraday chart, but it was still too much. The market has been consistently cold. Tomorrow’s outlook is still to see a rebound repair after the bottom. You’ll see what you see—how it plays out, one step at a time.

For pharmaceuticals: Thursday’s move was pretty strong. On Friday there was divergence, and there were also unfavorable tariff-related news from abroad that affected it. The Tianjin Ya outlook was divergence. On Friday it opened high and quickly went to a one-minute limit-up; the low-level supporters were mainly Chongyao and Chinese medicine. Tianjin Ya was strong, but it couldn’t lead the sector’s return-to-repair. Individual stocks also have a “grouping” attribute. Tomorrow is an important time point. The expectation for tomorrow is still divergence. If Tianjin Ya can hold up through the divergence and advance to the next stage, then the outlook is acceleration afterward. At the same time, there’s a Shuanglu—if Tianjin Ya stays strong, this can also be traded as an arbitrage. The strong trend identification is Meinuo and Wanbang; these are just rolling trades. Elastic arbitrage is Guangsheng at 20 centimeters—so long as the sector keeps continuing, you can still arbitrate it. The sector’s tomorrow’s performance is also very important. It needs to retrace and repair; after the sector repairs, you can continue to track it. Otherwise, you’ll need to reduce expectations.

Fiber optics: a technology sub-sector that has been continuously supported by the tailwind of price increases. The sector has been moving in a trend. With a weak environment and no volume, it doesn’t support big tech running a big trend. China Unicom (Changfei) is the sector leader; here what it’s doing is a “grouping” move. At the lower levels, the one蹭 concepts is Xineng—personally, I feel that one is also “grouping.” The sector was very strong on Friday; tomorrow is a divergence expectation. The key is still to watch for volume. If there’s no volume, technology will keep lowering expectations; later it may enter a late-decline.

Power: when it’s rising, how strong it is—now when it’s getting sold off, it’s really not soft at all. That’s the effect of quant strategies. The power sector had been trending previously, but this sell-off is a bit too much. If the market repairs next week, power will definitely rebound. But even if it rebounds, it’s still an arbitrage—if you make money, remember to get out in time.

All in all, market volume has shrunk to a new recent low. In a market with no volume, it’s rotation. And rotation also creates opportunities for sector and individual stocks. Capital will choose “human气/interest” and “identification/grouping.” Tomorrow, in fiber optics, look for divergence and see how pharmaceuticals’ return-to-repair plays out. If tech diverges and pharmaceuticals doesn’t move into repair, then lower expectations and see if anything new comes out.

For Tianjin Ya: the expectation is staged for tomorrow; the only 1 B point on the board is if divergence turns into unanimity.

If Tianjin Ya advances, Wanbang, Shuanglu, and Guangsheng can be arbitraged. Meinuo arbitrage can be done with bond settlement on a daily basis.

For Haixia: there’s news next week about a visit to China. The focus is on the arbitrage opportunities between Pingtan and Haixia.

This article is all about personal consumption records and trading reflections, not investment advice. The market has risks, and trading requires caution

My heartfelt thanks to everyone for the encouragement and support—likes + comments + shares + push oil + tips + Cui Bo.

The following are the earlier technical posts (if you want to learn, I suggest you take a look when you have time)

How to build your own trading system?
https://www.tgb.cn/a/2cPt8f4p6Ju

The fastest way to reach a trading epiphany—trading summary
https://www.tgb.cn/a/2bCDEawAqv2

Short-term trading—expectations
https://www.tgb.cn/a/2b0PCQWwStl

Set the direction with the opening auction—how to review
https://shuo.tgb.cn/shuo/toViewShuo?shuoID=1859770797481435184#type=zblb