Delta Air Lines (DAL) Stock: What to Expect From Q1 Earnings on Wednesday

TLDR

• DAL has outperformed peers Southwest, United, and American Airlines over the past 30 days, rising ~5% while others dropped 10%+
• Q1 earnings are due Wednesday, April 8, before the open
• Jet fuel prices have surged 103% in a month to $195/barrel due to the Iran conflict — Delta does not hedge fuel costs
• Analysts expect Q1 revenue of $14.8B (+5.38%) and EPS of $0.62, up from $0.46
• Technically, DAL is holding above its 50- and 100-day EMAs, with the year-to-date high of $76 as the next potential target

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Delta Air Lines is heading into its first-quarter earnings report on April 8 in better shape than most of its rivals. The stock has climbed around 5% over the past 30 days, while Southwest, United, and American Airlines have each dropped more than 10% in the same period.

Delta Air Lines, Inc., DAL

That gap comes down to a few things. Delta has leaned hard into premium travel, attracting higher-income flyers who tend to keep spending even when the economy wobbles. In Q4, premium ticket revenue rose 9% to nearly $5.7 billion, while main cabin revenue slipped 7% to $5.62 billion.

The airline also recovered well after a rough patch in late February, when the stock fell below its 50-day moving average as bond yields and oil prices climbed following the start of the Iran conflict. A strong reversal on March 9 helped DAL claw its way back above that level.

Now the question is what happens on Wednesday.

Analysts are forecasting Q1 revenue of $14.8 billion, a 5.38% increase year-over-year, with EPS coming in at $0.62 versus $0.46 in the same quarter last year. But those numbers may be under pressure.

Fuel Costs Are the Big Wildcard

Delta does not hedge its jet fuel costs. That policy is now biting. Data from IATA shows the average jet fuel price has jumped to $195 a barrel — up 103% from a month earlier — driven by supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict.

That’s a direct hit to margins. Delta will likely address how the war is affecting its 2025 outlook when it reports. The company has dealt with oil shocks before — it navigated the spike that followed Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — but the current surge is steep.

The company guided for Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.50 to $0.90, with the midpoint of $0.70 sitting just below the Wall Street consensus of $0.72 at the time of guidance.

For the full year, Delta has guided for earnings of $6.50 to $7.50 per share. Annual revenue is expected to reach $67.2 billion in 2025, rising to $70 billion in 2026.

Chart Setup Points Higher

From a technical standpoint, DAL has held up well. The stock bounced from a March low of $55.20 and is now sitting around $66.70. It remains above both its 50-day and 100-day EMAs, as well as an ascending trendline that has been in place since June last year.

The chart has formed a harami candlestick pattern — a small bullish candle following a larger bearish one — which technicians often read as a potential reversal signal.

The year-to-date high of $76 sits about 14% above current levels and is the next technical target on the chart.

In Q4, Delta posted revenue of $16 billion and an operating profit of $1.5 billion. For the full year 2024, revenue came in at $63.4 billion, operating profit at $5.8 billion, and operating cash flow at $14.1 billion.

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