Daily Market Analysis — BTC

From the weekly chart perspective, over the past 150 days, the price has been moving in a stepwise downward trend, within a contraction of bulls and bears. Brother Sugar believes this cycle is still ongoing. In the next three months, the weekly K-line will eventually cycle with the MA250, channel lines, trap, and grind, which are important signs that the bearish trend is nearing its end.
Although the probability of a direct upward move cannot be ruled out at any time and at any level, this current behavior is exhausting the main bullish forces too much. Personally, I don’t hold high expectations. Therefore, my trading plan remains the same as last week: wait for a rise to sell high and buy low after a pullback.
From the daily chart perspective, the focus of March’s volatility was the formation of a “similar M-top,” followed by a rebound wave that broke the “similar M-top” neckline. The recent rally from the weekend to today is the second peak of a rebound towards the MA30 on the daily chart. But the overall pattern remains a second downward consolidation on the daily.
Whether it’s the recent candlestick formations or the rebound amplitude based on the MA30, there’s no effective breakout. On the contrary, within the existing patterns at this level, caution is needed regarding the risk of a second rebound combined with the neckline and MA30, and appropriate high selling should be reserved. (See chart for details)
From the 4H to 12H medium-term structure, the trend appears slightly more optimistic than the higher levels. After today’s rally, a standard “tower bottom” pattern has formed, which can significantly delay the next decline in both time and magnitude.
However, since the right shoulder breakout of the tower bottom did not see volume, it’s likely just a time consolidation pattern. The neckline of the tower bottom and the 12H MA30 area are potential short-term low-entry points. If the rally driven by the tower bottom extends to break through the daily MA30, we may see the price reach around the control line at 75,180 again.
Looking at the 1H and lower timeframes, the moving averages have completed a bullish divergence and rally after convergence. The current price is a pullback after reaching the short-term bearish divergence zone of 69,222–70,926, forming a top divergence on the 15-minute chart.
First, wait for the 15-minute divergence to be repaired, then use the pullback combined with the higher-level pattern to seize short-term rebound opportunities.
An ideal trading approach is: use the 15-minute divergence pullback to buy at the tower bottom on the 4-12H chart, then wait for a rally towards the control line at 75,180. Of course, actual trading should be guided by specific details.
Summary: The higher-level bearish trend remains unchanged. The upward movement is just a return to consolidation, which can prolong the consolidation but is unlikely to change the trend easily.
The daily chart is still in the second downward consolidation, but the smaller timeframes suggest the continuation of sideways movement, allowing for aggressive trading strategies. The rest of the approach remains unchanged. Key levels are as follows:
Aggressive buy: 69,066–68,256 (1:2 risk-reward), stop-loss at 67,167 (on the 1H candle or near that point, but if touched, a quick rebound exit), take profit at 70,926/75,180. Generally, take profits when the chart looks good.
Higher-level aggressive support: 64,218–63,720 (short-term trading, quick in and out, avoid falling sharply), short-term support: 60,414–58,360 (1:2 quick in and out), second support: 56,550–54,388 (quick rebound trading on sharp drops).
Short-term resistance: 70,926–71,820, second divergence resistance: 73,640–75,180 (after reaching, pull back to the daily MA30 for short-term low buy). #BTC