Bitcoin Price Shows 3 Bullish Signals in a Week with No Breakout Success

Bitcoin Price
BTCUSD
traded at $69,192 on April 6 after rising about 4% from the local low on April 5. This rebound is the third in the past week, all triggered by the same technical signals on the 8-hour chart.

Each time this signal appeared, the price always moved upward. But, each time, the rally was also halted at the same zone. This pattern raises questions that can actually be answered by on-chain data, and the answer will determine whether this attempt will have a different outcome or just repeat the previous two failed breakouts.

Three Signals, Same Ceiling

Bitcoin's price forms several standard bullish divergences in the short term on the 8-hour chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator measuring the speed and direction of price changes, forms higher lows each time, while the price makes lower lows. Such patterns typically indicate weakening selling pressure and often trigger a reversal in price direction.

The first divergence event concluded on March 31, referencing February 3. Bitcoin surged by 4.83% before being halted again. The second divergence ended on April 3, producing only a 1.47% rebound, making it the weakest among the three. The third divergence occurred on April 5 and has already resulted in a 4.24% rally, bringing the price back up to around $69,192.

All three rallies share one similarity. None managed to convincingly close above $69,182 on the 8-hour chart, which is the level where one of the previous rebounds also weakened. The signals keep appearing. However, the upper boundary remains firmly held.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin's price is slightly above that level, testing whether this third attempt has enough strength to break through the level that failed to be breached in the previous two attempts. The answer is not from the chart pattern but from who is actually buying and selling behind the scenes.

Two On-Chain Confidence Pillars Start to Weaken

The reason these divergences haven't yet produced a sustainable rally is clearly visible in two on-chain data points.

The first is whale concentration. The number of entities holding 1,000 BTC or more, serving as a proxy for the largest holders in the market, peaked at 1,281 around mid-March. Since then, the number has steadily decreased to 1,266 as of April 5. A reduction of 15 whale-level wallets over three weeks indicates that the concentrated buying power, which usually drives breakouts, is actually diminishing rather than increasing.

This decline accelerated after March 29, coinciding precisely with the formation of the three divergences.

The second is long-term holder behavior. The Long-Term Holder Net Position Change, an indicator monitoring whether long-term holders are adding or reducing exposure, peaked at 163,262 BTC on March 22. But by April 5, it had fallen to 87,038 BTC, a decrease of nearly 47%. Long-term holders haven't completely given up, but their confidence is clearly waning.

The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), which maps how much supply last moved at each price level, shows structural resistance just above the current price. There is a cluster of supply at around 1.7% at approximately US$69,422. This means 1.7% of all Bitcoin supply has a cost basis near that area or close to the current level, creating a potential wall of sellers who might want to exit at break-even conditions.

However, the cluster dynamics change rapidly above that level. At US$70,685, the supply concentration drops to 1.3%. Beyond that, the supply cluster becomes much thinner up to around US$84,000, where a new dense zone appears. The challenge is that breaking through this first wall is difficult without confidence from whales and long-term holders, who typically support breakouts.

Bitcoin Price Levels That Separate Breakout from Another Correction

The 8-hour chart with swings from March 17 to March 25 serves as the reference for all key levels this week.

The nearest resistance is at US$69,920. If Bitcoin can stay above that level for 8 hours, it means the 1.7% supply cluster in the current range is not selling during this rally, marking an important first difference from the previous two divergence patterns.

If the price surpasses US$69,920, the next target is the swing high at US$71,956. Closing above this level would confirm that Bitcoin has successfully broken out of the range that has been constraining since late March.

On the downside, US$68,660 is the nearest support for BTC. Below that, US$66,624 has been a strong floor with multiple tests since late March. If this level is broken, the structure will significantly weaken, and US$63,329 will become the next reference point.

If the price can hold above US$69,920 for 8 hours cleanly, it will indicate that this divergence is different from the previous two. Conversely, if it fails to hold US$66,624, it means on-chain weakness has truly taken over the technical signals, and the price could move lower.