Yangtze River Nonferrous: Lead prices supported by supply contraction and just-in-time replenishment; lead prices may rise slightly on the 3rd

Hot Sections

            Watchlist
Data Center
Market Quotes Center
Fund Flow
Simulated Trading
        

        Client

Yangtze Nonferrous Metals Network

【ccmn.cn lead futures market】Overnight London lead fell, down 4.5 dollars; it opened at 1931.50 USD/ton, hit a high of 1939.50 USD, a low of 1915 USD, and closed at 1934.50 USD in the late session. Trading volume was 6945 lots, and open interest was 180,863 lots.

Yangtze Lead Industry Network (pb.ccmn.cn) today’s spot lead price outlook: On the overseas side, the U.S. dollar index surged overnight. The Fed’s full-year rate-cut expectations continued to narrow. In a high-interest-rate environment, the carrying cost of dollar-denominated nonferrous assets has skyrocketed. At the same time, with the Good Friday holiday overlapping the release of March nonfarm data, market liquidity tightened. Ahead of the holiday, investors reduced positions to hedge risk, increasing sell pressure. Speculative funds集中 sold off London lead and other risk assets. On the domestic side, the central bank net injected funds on the day to keep market liquidity ample. The RMB exchange rate hit a new high for the period. A-shares overall weakened, while only a few sectors such as oil and gas moved against the trend stronger. As for lead prices, they rely on supply-side contraction, strong cost support, and firm demand as a bottom, maintaining a slightly bullish trend with modest gains within a range.

Marginal improvements in supply and demand and the industrial chain, underpinning the bottom of the price rebound

The lead market’s current supply-and-demand structure is showing encouraging changes. On the supply side, original lead smelters have increased maintenance. Recycled lead capacity is releasing less than expected, so overall supply increases are limited. On the demand side, orders for lead-acid battery energy storage were released beyond expectations. Distributors’ willingness to replenish inventory ahead of the holiday has rebounded. Inventories across the industrial chain continue to decline. The demand performance in the off-season has not weakened, providing solid fundamental support for the rebound in lead prices.

Lead price trend forecast for April 3 and core variables to watch

Today, lead prices will likely maintain a slightly bullish sideways-to-volatile pattern. Three key variables are the focus: intraday fluctuations in the U.S. dollar index, real-time developments in the Middle East geopolitical situation, and the transaction strength in the downstream spot market. In the short term, lead prices still have room to move higher. Be alert to volatility caused by repeated swings in sentiment. For the medium to long term, the trajectory still needs to be anchored to the sustainability of real improvements on the demand side.

 Open a futures account on Sina—A big, cooperative platform. Safe, fast, and secure

Massive information and precise analysis—right on the Sina Finance APP

责任编辑：Li Tiemin