Secondary market shortage: investors offer Anthropic $2 млрд, ignoring OpenAI shares - ForkLog: cryptocurrencies, AI, singularity, the future

# Secondary market deficit: investors are pitching Anthropic $2 billion, ignoring OpenAI shares

Shares of the AI startup Anthropic have become the most sought-after on the secondary market, while OpenAI’s stock is losing appeal among buyers. TechCrunch reports this, citing Glen Anderson, president of investment bank Rainmaker Securities.

His organization has acted as an intermediary in the market for private-company stock since 2010 and covers about a thousand different firms.

The expert confirmed Bloomberg’s data on the surge in demand for Anthropic. The CEO of Next Round Capital told the agency that potential buyers are prepared to invest $2 billion in the startup. For comparison: the current shareholders of OpenAI cannot realize their assets even at $600 million.

«The hardest-to-access shares on our trading platform are Anthropic’s shares. There simply aren’t any sellers,» Anderson said.

Reasons for the surge and OpenAI’s discount

One of the factors behind the sharp rise in interest in Anthropic is the firm’s showdown with the U.S. Department of Defense.

«Their app became more popular. People backed the company as a kind of hero challenging the government. That heightened the resonance and further set the firm apart against OpenAI,» the expert said.

However, this does not mean that Sam Altman’s startup is in a dire situation, Anderson emphasized. Institutional investors still want to put money into both companies.

«I wouldn’t say it’s a choice between one and the other. But the enthusiasm is already gone. The market right now isn’t nearly as dynamic as it was for Anthropic,» he noted.

Anderson confirmed Bloomberg’s information that on the secondary market, OpenAI shares trade based on an overall business valuation of $765 billion. The stock is being sold at a noticeable discount compared with the recent funding round, during which a valuation of $852 billion was cited.

SpaceX: the hidden giant with a $2 trillion valuation

Against the backdrop of competition between the two AI giants, the market often overlooks SpaceX. Anderson stated that it is one of the few companies in Rainmaker’s portfolio that has never faced a sharp correction and a 60–70% drop in share price.

Elon Musk’s firm has been “growing and evolving” almost constantly. As the analyst noted, management maintains strict discipline in pricing and isn’t trying to get the maximum out of every funding round.

«Many companies are tempted to raise the price of their shares as much as possible in each round. The problem is that this approach leaves no room for mistakes,» the expert said.

The cautious approach has generated huge profits for early investors. In 2015, Google and Fidelity invested $1 billion in SpaceX at a business valuation of $12 billion. Based on the targets for the upcoming listing, its revenue could exceed the initial investment by more than 100 times.

Record IPO and impact on the market

Apparently, the listing for Musk’s company is no longer far off. SpaceX confidentially filed for an IPO in which it plans to raise between $50 billion and $75 billion in June at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. At the same time, media reports surfaced that soon after, SpaceX increased its target valuation— to above $2 trillion.

«Today I was approached by a steady stream of investors asking whether I can offer them SpaceX shares. Demand from buyers is very active. But the supply is running out. The closer the IPO is, the fewer incentives existing shareholders have to sell shares,» Anderson said.

A large-scale SpaceX listing could disrupt similar plans by OpenAI and Anthropic this year. The expert suggested that those who follow the space company will be at a disadvantage.

«The money allocated to the IPO is limited. SpaceX will absorb a large share of liquidity,» he added.

With a valuation above $2 trillion, SpaceX would be more valuable than all companies in the S&P 500 except the top five—Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon. In addition, the offering would break Saudi Aramco’s historic record, which in 2019 raised $29.4 billion at a valuation of $1.7 trillion.

SpaceX plans to use the funds it raises to build data centers in space and cities on the Moon.

Recall that in January, Tesla revived the closed Dojo project for AI computing beyond Earth.