Naira settles at N1,591/€ as the Euro maintains its fall against US Dollar

The Nigerian Naira currency showed price stability and upward movements against the major European currency in the past week.

Latest data from the Central Bank of Nigeria showed the naira settled at N1,591.5 per 1 EUR, up from its weekly low of N1,599/€.

The Nigerian currency has undergone a structural change from a “free-fall” to a “descending channel” (which, for this pair, means the Naira is strengthening as the Euro’s value in Naira declines).

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Latest price action showed the naira’s outlook against the European currency was upgraded from Neutral to marginally bullish. However, the European currency experienced a slight “pullback” bounce to its current level after the Naira reached a quarterly high of N1,586 on April 2.

According to some currency models, the Naira is “undervalued” via the long-term spectrum, which means that if the Nigerian president’s fiscal reforms continue on their current course, there is potential for additional gradual appreciation in the second quarter.

In addition, worries about rising government expenditures, widening deficit and possible drops in Nigeria’s crude oil production could put fresh pressure on the currency since this is a pre-election year.

Nigeria strengthens ties with the European Union

Nigeria has become a major alternative supplier of aviation fuel to Europe due to disruptions in traditional Middle Eastern supply routes caused by US-Iran tensions. Europe’s increasing dependence on West African refineries is shown by a recent shipment from Dangote Petroleum Refinery to the UK.

• About 40% of Europe’s jet fuel comes from the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently affected by heightened tensions and security restrictions between the US and Iran.
• Benchmark prices in northwest Europe have risen to nearly double their pre-war levels. Industry data and Financial Times reports indicate that this Nigerian shipment marks a major change in supply chains.
• Additionally, the European Investment Bank has mobilized €555 million in loans to support small and medium-sized businesses in Nigerian business sectors such as agri-food, digital services, and healthcare.

One of the key projects highlighted is the Omi-Eko electric waterways transportation project in Lagos, which received €361 million in funding from the EU, the European Investment Bank, and France through the Team Europe approach.

Recent new initiatives include €108 million for a nationwide fiber-optic expansion to improve Nigeria’s digital infrastructure, €85 million for agricultural value chains focused on dairy and cocoa, and €50 million in financing from the European Investment Bank to support healthcare manufacturing.

Euro maintains its decline against the American dollar

The European currency ended the week slightly above the $1.15 level, in line with US President Donald Trump’s comments about the Middle East conflict. The latest market action showed that EUR/USD is technically bearish.

• The Euro remains under pressure after settling below the declining 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1550, which is below the flattened 100- and 200-day SMAs grouped around $1.168–$1.17.
• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is hovering in the mid-40s after recovering from oversold conditions, while the Momentum indicator turned lower and is currently pressing its midline from above, suggesting that sellers are still in control with RSI holding at around 45.
• The EUR/USD remained within range for the fourth week in a row as investors wait for more information on the war front before taking on steeper positions when the Houthis, a militant group in Yemen supported by Iran, launched a missile attack on Israel at the start of the week. Pessimism supported the US dollar.

Market sentiment improved, and the US dollar (USD) changed direction on Tuesday, following President Trump’s announcement that the US would withdraw from Iran in two or three weeks. Nevertheless, the USD continued to fall on Thursday after Trump made more remarks during a press conference at the White House.

Eurozone is currently experiencing a bump in the road recovery due mostly to external shocks. An energy price shock triggered by the Middle East’s conflict was a major factor in the Eurozone’s inflation surge, which returned to 2.5 percent in March 2026 after falling to 1.7 percent in January.

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