Li Daokui: China's economy is at a critical turning point

Topic: The Second Shanghai New Entrepreneurs Conference on High-Quality Development

The Fifth Second Session of the Member Representatives Conference of the Shanghai New Entrepreneurs Association and the Second Shanghai New Entrepreneurs Conference on High-Quality Development were held on March 29 in Shanghai. Li Daokui, President of the Institute for China’s Economic Thinking and Practice at Tsinghua University, attended and delivered a speech.

Li Daokui said that China’s economy is at a crucial turning point comparable to those of 1992 and 2002.

In his speech, by comparing historical data and the current situation, he analyzed three fundamental factors driving this adjustment period. From the perspective of the international landscape, the post-U.S. era is accelerating in evolution. The share of U.S. GDP in the world fell from 55% after World War II to 25%; the share of industry fell from 50% to 17%; the U.S. strategic “return to the original mission” is intended to reduce global intervention and focus on the domestic front.

In terms of technological development, an unprecedented turning point has emerged. AI technology is highly disruptive, and both its development speed and application models are unprecedented, which will profoundly change humanity’s fate.

In addition, China’s old economic model is unsustainable—old growth drivers such as real estate and infrastructure investment are hard to restart; the economic focus is shifting to public well-being and welfare; and the international trade model is transforming into outward investment.

Li Daokui also emphasized the inevitability of China’s policy shift. He pointed out that the core of the 2026 Two Sessions and the “15th Five-Year Plan” is high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and innovation-driven new productive forces. China is in a critical period of transitioning from “accumulating wealth” to “enhancing welfare.” It must digest the wealth accumulated over the past several decades by boosting domestic demand and public well-being and welfare—this is a major trend for future development.

Based on the above analysis, Li Daokui clearly identified three major directions that future entrepreneurs and investors should focus on:

New productive forces: Embrace disruptive technologies (such as AI), seek scale-amplification effects, and achieve a leap from products to services.

New “going global” strategy: Shift from exporting goods alone to exporting technology, management, and supply-chain capabilities through outward investment; identify opportunities by country and region.

New consumption strategy: Focus on consumption upgrading into lower-tier markets (Tier 2–3 cities and rural areas), service consumption (healthcare, education, and culture and tourism), and the exploration of segmented markets.

Li Daokui concluded that China’s economy has entered a crucial adjustment period—this is a profound transformation jointly driven by dramatic changes in the global landscape, a technological turning point, and a shift in the logic of domestic development. Faced with Western anxiety and turbulence, China should remain firmly confident, seize the three major opportunities of “technology, going global, and consumption,” and achieve high-quality development by enhancing public well-being and welfare and realizing technological self-reliance.

Sina Statement: All meeting transcripts are compiled from real-time notes taken on-site. They have not been reviewed by the speakers. Sina.com publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information, and it does not imply endorsement of the speakers’ viewpoints or confirmation of the described content.

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Editor: Wang Xiang