Strait of Hormuz, big news! What will A-shares do tomorrow?

Ask AI · How Does Resumption of Navigation Through the Strait of Hormuz Affect China’s A-Share Energy Sector?

Economic Daily reporter: Xiao Ruidong Economic Daily editor: Zhao Yun

Due to continued disruptions from external armed conflicts, along with risk-avoidance positioning ahead of the holiday, in the previous trading week (from March 30 to April 3), the overall A-share market declined on shrinking volume, with only 1,121 stocks rising cumulatively.

Weekly performance of major indices

Based on the three-level K-line chart of the Wind All A Index shown above, it’s not hard to see:

Since March, the market has gradually pulled back in a rhythm of “down one week, up one week,” falling back to the mid-December level of last year, and has temporarily found support.

But in the second half of last week, both price and volume in the market fell together. Positively, it means the market is still building a base; negatively, it means weakness—no reversal has been seen.

Daily K-line of the SSE Index

When markets open tomorrow (April 7), Hong Kong stocks are still closed for trading, meaning northbound capital will remain absent, and A-share trading activity may be constrained to some extent.

On the other hand, it’s worth noting that on the 5th, Trump posted on social media saying:

“8 p.m. Tuesday (7) Eastern Time!”

Some media interpreted this as the last deadline he is again postponing for an action to destroy Iran’s energy facilities, delaying it by one day. He had previously threatened that if Iran did not reach an agreement with the United States or open the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. on April 6 Eastern Time, the U.S. would bomb Iran’s power plants and other infrastructure.

Therefore, the market’s on-the-spot decision that originally needed to be made tomorrow may be pushed back.

And according to CCTV News, on April 5 local time, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei posted on social media that the Iranian people’s will is to continue carrying out effective homeland defense actions, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic lever must also continue to be used.

In addition, Iranian officials also mentioned conditions for opening the strait. Taba Taba’i, deputy director of the Presidential Office for News and Communications Affairs, said regarding the control of the Strait of Hormuz that the Strait of Hormuz would only be fully reopened after a new legal system is established and all losses Iran suffered in past wars are compensated for by using past ship tax revenue.

Judging from market reaction, on the morning of April 6, international oil prices rose. WTI crude oil futures at one point surged by more than 3%. Equity index futures in the U.S. also opened lower and then rose. Stock markets in Japan and South Korea edged higher.

For the response strategy ahead, our advice remains:

Optimistic, but cautious.

As for optimism, everyone can look back at this year’s entire “journey so far.”

**Starting from April 7, 2025, under how much panic the market turned trouble into opportunity, **and how “big money” provided support—you still remember, right?

Along the way, the market and all participants have grown. It can even be said that the market’s mindset today is far more steady than it was at that time.

As for caution, it’s a big matter concerning profit and loss in one’s personal account. In the current context, perhaps it’s still about looking more, doing less, avoiding chasing highs, controlling position sizes, and so on.

Dongwu Securities believes that at this stage, the rotation of the market’s trading is highly tied to oil price fluctuations, and in the short term, the trading rhythm is significantly affected by the geopolitical situation. However, compared with overseas equity assets, A-shares are more stable: on the one hand, China is less sensitive to the risk of oil price increases; on the other hand, sustained repair of the macro fundamentals and support from micro capital provide additional backing. Entering April, the market may shake off uncertainty and seize the “April decision,” searching for opportunities with certainty.

The institution also specifically pointed out that market sentiment is not pessimistic; more people are taking a wait-and-see attitude. Although trading volume has clearly fallen recently—down to 1.67 trillion yuan as of April 3—it has not fallen below the low point in December 2025, and it is also significantly higher than the level in the first half of 2025. Meanwhile, the number of new household accounts in March was 4.6 million, second only to October 2024 and January 2026. Residents’ enthusiasm for entering the market is high and has not been dampened by the market adjustment caused by geopolitical risks.

Overall, the wait-and-see stance among investors leads to reduced trading volume. But if risks ease, residents may accelerate their entry into the market.

Xiangcai Securities said in its research report that from a short-term dimension, following the conclusion of China’s two sessions, the market has returned to a normal operating track. Currently, the sustained conflict in the Middle East between the U.S. and Iran remains the main factor affecting the A-share market in the short term.

From a long-term dimension, 2026 is the starting year of the “15th Five-Year Plan (2026)” period. China continues to maintain a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, providing important support for the stable operation of China’s domestic economy in 2026 and for the A-share market to maintain a “slow bull” trend.

Huajing Securities noted that the fundamentals may continue to rebound, overseas risks have been released, pessimistic sentiment has already been fairly fully priced in, and policies are more positive. In the short term, A-shares may have already bottomed out. In the short term, it is recommended to continue to allocate at lower levels to high-quality technology and some cyclical sectors.

A research report from Huiyuan Securities stated that overall, the current wartime situation has little impact on China’s economy, and for some industries it is even slightly more favorable. It advises investors to remain patient, cherish the “golden pit,” and actively follow the energy mainline and the directions in which the first-quarter reports are relatively strong.

Specifically, considering that oil prices remain relatively high in the short term, investors remain broadly bullish on the energy sectors (new and old energies). Meanwhile, drawing reference from 2010–2011, when oil was around $100 per barrel, most domestic chemical industry chains (excluding large integrated refining and chemical operations) still have relatively good room for profitability. In the short term, there may also be some disturbances.

On the defensive side, it’s possible to allocate to assets such as gold, consumption, and high-dividend stocks. On the offensive side (if further declines occur or there is a partial easing of a given phase), investors may actively consider AI computing power, domestically produced chips, and semiconductor equipment—areas where business conditions are still at a high level—and look for names whose first-quarter results are expected to maintain strong growth.

Next, as usual, we will review the news from the past few days.

Regarding the Middle East situation, besides the previously mentioned “hint to postpone by one day,” according to CCTV News, on April 5 local time Trump said that he believes an agreement with Iran can be reached before the 6th, and Iran is currently in negotiations.

Other developments since last Friday can be seen in the chart below.

For other news, you can also pay attention to:

Strait of Hormuz: Seven-day shipping volume hits the highest level since the war began

Based on industry-compiled ship-tracking data, over the past week (through April 4), the number of vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz has increased. As of Friday, the seven-day rolling average number of vessels transiting reached the highest level since the U.S.-Iran conflict broke out at the end of February.

China does not have large-scale oil-fired power generation

According to Economic Daily, data provided by the National Energy Administration shows that China’s power generation structure is mainly coal power, hydropower, wind power, and solar power, with oil-fired power generation accounting for an extremely low share. The claim that “using oil-fired power pushes up charging costs” is essentially a misreading of China’s energy structure.

Anthropic’s new rules take effect: Calling Claude via third-party tools such as OpenClaw will incur extra charges

Embassy of China in Israel reminds: Keep away from civilian infrastructure

CPCA: China’s auto exports reach 1.55 million units in Jan–Feb 2026, up 61% year over year

Based on CPCA data, the profit of China’s auto industry was 43.5 billion yuan in Jan–Feb 2026, down 30% year over year; auto exports from China were 1.55 million units in Jan–Feb 2026, up 61% year over year; in March, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 784,000 units, up 69% month over month.

A-share first-quarter report rally kicks off: 12 listed companies’ net profit sees the highest year-over-year increase of over 200%

Finally, here are some major events for the next few days this week (April 7 to April 10).

April 7, Tuesday

China releases March foreign exchange reserve data. Previously, China had been adding to gold reserves for 16 consecutive months.

CSRC’s “Several Provisions on Regulation of Short-Swing Trading” officially goes into effect

This document clarifies the identification and calculation standards for holding shares and trading time points; it stipulates that trading time points are the securities transfer registration dates. The percentage of shareholding for major shareholders is calculated by aggregating issued shares of the same listed and trading-venue company within and outside China, and the number of securities held by overseas investors through different channels is also aggregated.

April 8, Wednesday

From 0:00 onward, the domestic refined oil price adjustment window opens

Institutional estimates suggest that under the domestic refined oil pricing adjustment mechanism, the upward adjustment for refined oil on April 8 is around 130 yuan/ton. At that time, it will mark the sixth increase this year.

April 9, Thursday

The 14th China Electronics Information Expo (CITE2026) will be held in Shenzhen on April 9 to 11

The Third AI Computing Power Industry Conference and Exhibition will be held on April 9 to 11

April 10, Friday

National Bureau of Statistics releases March CPI and PPI data

The U.S. will release March CPI data

Affected by the surge in energy prices caused by the Iran war, markets broadly expect inflation to rise significantly.

Daily Economic News