Peak season is not busy! Glass prices hit a new cyclical low. What is the reason?

Hot Sections

Watchlist Data Center Market Quotes Center Capital Flow Trends Simulated Trading

        Client

Source: Futures Daily

This is the critical period when glass demand is expected to rebound, but the market has instead shown a lackluster off-season. Glass futures prices have also continued to fall. On April 1, the main glass futures contract closed at 999 yuan per ton, a new low in nearly 10 months. In the spot market, after the Spring Festival holiday, domestic flat glass prices have been running steadily. In March, prices in the North China spot market remained around 1060 yuan per ton, while prices in the Central China spot market remained around 1080 yuan per ton, which is in sharp contrast to the rising trend typically seen during peak season in previous years.

Market participants believe that high inventory levels in the upstream and midstream, along with weak end-market demand, are the core reasons behind the decline in glass futures prices.

Shou Jialu, an analyst at Nanhua Futures, said that in the first quarter, China’s apparent glass demand fell by 4.2% year over year. Downstream deep-processing enterprises had relatively few orders, and there has been no obvious sign of replenishment in the terminal market. Midstream inventory in the trading环节 has already been saturated, which limits the upside potential for spot prices.

Ding Cheng, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, also said that in recent years the glass market fundamentals have been weak overall; inventories have been difficult to absorb. The traditional “Golden September and Silver October” has shown a peak-season performance that is not as strong as usual. This year’s “Golden March and Silver April” has been further weighed down by the high level of enterprise inventories after the Spring Festival holiday and the contraction in downstream orders, leaving demand with little improvement.

According to Shou Jialu, the glass industry is currently in a typical “weak supply and weak demand” pattern. In the first quarter of 2026, glass supply volume is expected to decline by about 4.7% year over year, which is basically equivalent to the decline in apparent demand.

Ding Cheng said that currently, the daily furnace load of float glass has fallen to below 144k tons, an all-time low in history. Supply contraction is very large, but demand recovery is slow and inventory reduction has been ineffective. Most glass production enterprises have fallen into losses. Although there are expectations for cold maintenance of production lines outside the plan, in the short term it is difficult for that to change the weak fundamentals.

Looking ahead to April’s glass market, interviewees believe that prices are unlikely to see a reversal with a sustained trend.

Hu Peng, a senior analyst at Founder Securities & Futures, said that demand in the medium term is hard to describe as optimistic, but it may improve somewhat in the short term. According to him, because this year’s Spring Festival holiday came later, the downstream’s resumption schedule has been relatively slow, dragging down March glass demand. With demand recovering in April, prices may stabilize temporarily. In addition, in March, the furnace load in production decreased by nearly 5,000 tons; in total for the first quarter it fell by nearly 8,500 tons. The current furnace load is close to the supply-demand balance line. If it drops to 140k tons, the market will enter the inventory drawdown phase.

Shou Jialu also believes that demand may improve in the short term. Downstream and export orders may increase slightly, but overall it is difficult for them to grow significantly. The strength of the demand recovery in the second quarter and the extent of inventory drawdown will directly determine whether upstream capacity can continue to be cleared.

Ding Cheng said that in April, there are limited adjustment plans for China’s glass production lines. High inventories have not yet been effectively worked through. Combined with the release of speculative supply sources, supply pressure will still remain.

Looking at the cost side, Ding Cheng said that due to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and seasonal factors, energy prices such as coal and petroleum coke have an upward trend. In the second quarter, the center of gravity of glass costs is expected to rise, which will provide support for its price, and glass prices in April are expected to trade weakly in a range.

Shou Jialu said that in the short term, glass prices will maintain range-bound trading with limited downside room. However, before demand improves and inventories are reduced, it is also difficult for glass prices to show a sustained uptrend.

 Open a Futures Account on Sina’s Large Partner Platform — Safe and Fast, with Assurances

Massive information and precise analysis—right on the Sina Finance app

责任编辑：赵思远