Policy support, immediate demand entering the market, increased transaction volume, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen's real estate market welcomes a "small spring"

Turnaround in home sales, prices edge up; more than 60% of transactions are under 3 million yuan

Securities Times reporter Zhang Da

In March that has just passed, Beijing’s secondary housing transaction volume increased noticeably. Data from the Centaline China Research Institute show that in March, Beijing’s secondhand home online signing volume reached 19,886 units, up 144.6% month over month and up 3.4% year over year, the highest level in the past 15 months.

Several real-estate agency professionals interviewed by Securities Times said that recent improvement in Beijing’s secondhand home transactions has shortened the transaction cycle significantly, and prices have risen slightly.

“Recently, all of Beijing has picked up, and transaction volume is much higher. Now many residential communities are in a situation of shortage of listings.” A staff member from a large real-estate agency’s Beijing Tongzhou District branch told Securities Times, “The earlier cheap, good homes have already been sold. Now, when a newly listed home with a normal layout is registered, as long as it’s not a unit with a particularly low floor or a particularly poor layout, even if the price is just 100,000 to 200,000 yuan higher than the price of the previous sold units, it can still be sold quickly.”

A staff member from a large real-estate agency’s branch in Beijing’s Dongcheng District told Securities Times that recently there have been relatively more transactions for school-district homes.

“We signed seventeen or eighteen deals in March at our shop, which is double compared with before.” Another real-estate agent from a Fengtai District branch told Securities Times that recently there have been more clients; with the recovery in transaction volume, the total price for each home has risen slightly by roughly 100,000 to 180,000 yuan.

For the performance of Beijing’s secondhand housing market in March, Leng Hui, an analyst from the Beijing Lianjia Research Institute, said in an interview with Securities Times that it was “very good.” On the transaction volume side, it was the highest level in the past 15 months. On prices, it has generally remained stable; compared with the period earlier in the year, it has risen slightly, and the stop-the-fall-and-stabilize and rebound trend has continued to look promising.

My Favorite Home Research Institute pointed out that on March 31, the single-day online signing volume for Beijing’s property market reached 1,422 units, setting a new high for single-day transactions in nearly three years since April 2023, directly demonstrating the recovery of Beijing’s secondhand home market. More importantly, this round of rebound has not only achieved steady growth in volume; price performance has also improved in parallel. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in February, Beijing’s secondhand residential price index rose 0.3% month over month, achieving the first stop-the-fall-and-rebound; according to My Favorite Home’s transaction data, in March the average transaction price of Beijing’s secondhand residential homes continued the stable trend seen in February, forming a favorable recovery pattern of “volume up and prices stable.”

Regarding the reasons for the rebound in Beijing’s property market in March, Leng Hui believes there are mainly two factors: On one hand, seasonal factors—every year after the Spring Festival, this period is a “golden time” when the market rebounds quickly, commonly known as the “spring thaw.” On the other hand, policy support—various optimization measures introduced in late December of last year (for example, easing purchase restrictions, optimizing mortgage conditions for second homes, and lowering the VAT rate on value-added tax, etc.) effectively boosted market confidence, and also unlocked part of housing demand. These newly generated demands also gradually turned into actual transactions throughout March.

The concentrated entry of the demand from first-time homebuyers and “just-needed” groups has become an important support for this “spring thaw”行情. My Favorite Home data show that in March, transactions of secondhand homes priced below 3 million yuan accounted for 66.3% of total secondhand transactions in the same period, up 19.1% year over year; low total-price listings have become the main force behind transactions.

As for whether the “spring thaw” in Beijing’s secondhand housing market can last, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst at Centaline Real Estate, believes that based on future trends, after the “spring thaw” of March, transactions may experience a pullback with momentum in April and May; the subsequent market direction will still depend on the policy trend.

Looking ahead, My Favorite Home Research Institute believes that after years of deep adjustment, the real-estate market has entered a new stage. Under the central government’s deployment to “focus on stabilizing the real-estate market,” it has already started moving toward a new phase. As a first-tier city, Beijing has solid fundamentals; the “stop-the-fall-and-rebound” trend is expected to continue, helping Beijing’s real-estate market achieve stable and healthy development.

Multiple indicators shine; “Shanghai’s seven-point rules” activate the property market

Securities Times reporter Chen Yukun

With the support from the “Shanghai seven-point rules” policy released on February 25 and the boosting effect of the traditional peak season, Shanghai’s housing market has entered a stage of “bottoming out and stabilizing,” and has also seen a “spring thaw” in March. In the March just passed, Shanghai’s secondhand home listing prices stopped falling and rebounded; the stage-level secondhand transaction volume hit the highest level in several years.

Data from Centaline show that Shanghai’s secondhand home transaction volume in March surpassed 30k units, truly a “Golden March.” As of March 29, secondhand transaction volume had been setting records for three consecutive weeks. The week’s online signing volume reached 7,732 units, the highest weekly transaction volume in the past five years. Among them, on March 28 (Saturday), online signing reached 1,585 units, setting a record for the highest number for a Saturday and for a single day in the past five years; on March 29 (Sunday), online signing reached 1,442 units, setting a record for the highest weekly Sunday transaction volume in the past five years.

Besides the big increase in transaction numbers, Shanghai’s home prices also stopped falling and rebounded, sending an important signal of “both volume and price rising.” Data provided by the China Index Research Institute show that the average price of Shanghai’s secondhand residential homes listed for sale rose month over month in March, ending the earlier streak of declines lasting 33 consecutive months.

On the afternoon of April 1, Securities Times reporter visited the Pudong New Area Real Estate Transaction Center in Shanghai. Although it was a workday, the property registration and transaction hall on the third floor was still bustling, with buyers, real-estate agents, landlords, and others coming and going. Large screens showed that both the day’s ticket/number issuance and business acceptance counts exceeded 900.

Liu, a real-estate agent accompanying clients to handle paperwork, told Securities Times, “Since mid-March, the transaction center has often been like this, lively and busy. After the ‘Shanghai seven-point rules’ new policies landed, many clients who previously got stuck due to eligibility or mortgage issues have started moving.”

After that, Securities Times reporter went to Beicai Town. The town lies between Shanghai’s inner ring and mid ring within Pudong. The area includes all kinds of housing such as just-needed, improvement-oriented, and mid-to-high-end homes. It has long been one of Pudong New Area’s more popular districts. “In terms of foot traffic, compared with some popular areas along the inner ring, it’s generally still relatively steady. In the afternoon, after taking a group of clients to view homes, we came to see a two-bedroom unit around 4 million yuan. The client felt the price is still a bit high and wants to look around a bit more.” A secondhand sales manager who has been stationed in Beicai for eight years told Securities Times that the clientele in the Beicai area mainly consists of office workers in the surrounding area and improvement-oriented buyers. After the new policies, inquiry volume increased, but the actual transaction speed did not change noticeably. “Landlords’ quotations are firm, and the room for negotiation isn’t as large as it was before the year. But buyers also generally have an attitude of waiting and watching. From the data, the citywide transaction volume has indeed gone up. But in our area, it feels like it’s still gradually filtering through; maybe we’ll feel the heat more clearly in April.” he said.

In this round of Shanghai’s “spring thaw” market, the just-needed group is the main supporting force. Data from multiple third-party institutions show that in March, the share of secondhand home transactions in Shanghai with a total price below 3 million yuan exceeded 60%. In the first half of the month, that share exceeded 70%.

Zhang Xiang, an analyst with the China Index Research Institute Shanghai office, told Securities Times that the “Shanghai seven-point rules” precisely released housing demand, and combined with the secondhand home acquisition pilot in the three urban districts at the beginning of February, it provided clear exit channels and a price anchor for “old and worn” assets. This effectively stabilized market expectations.

Looking ahead, Yan Yuejin, deputy dean of the Shanghai E-Ju Real Estate Research Institute, said that the increased activity of just-needed buyers will create the prerequisite for improvement-oriented demand to “sell the old to buy the new.” He expects that in the coming months, market warmth will expand and transmit further, and transactions for mid-to-high-end improvement demand and the luxury home market will be boosted. Overall, the secondhand home market is expected to show a positive trend of “transaction volume first, prices follow moderately, and later volume and prices both stabilize.”

Just-needed buyers move into the market actively; it’s still in the stage of “digesting existing inventory”

Securities Times reporter Li Yingquan

In the first quarter, Guangzhou’s secondhand home market saw a rebound trend.

On March 31, statistics released by the Guangzhou Real Estate Intermediary Association showed that in March 2025 (the statistical period was February 26 to March 25), Guangzhou’s secondhand residential homes completed online signing of 10,866 units and 1.0867 million square meters, increasing 73.08% and 74.34% month over month, respectively. In the first quarter, Guangzhou’s secondhand residential homes completed online signing of 27,182 units and 2.7190 million square meters, up 19.80% and 19.57% year over year, respectively.

By district, in March, the number of online signings in all administrative districts in Guangzhou increased to varying degrees month over month. Among them, Baiyun District, Zengcheng District, and Conghua District recorded month-over-month growth of 93.82%, 86.59%, and 85.60%, respectively, ranking at the top. Even Nan Sha District, which had the smallest growth rate, still saw month-over-month growth of 41.24%.

On April 1, Securities Times reporter conducted on-the-ground visits to multiple real-estate agency outlets in Tianhe District, Guangzhou. Since it was a workday, there were not many clients coming in to view homes or make inquiries; most were only occasional walk-ins. Several intermediaries told Securities Times reporter that over the weekend, their workload for viewing homes was relatively heavy, and the transaction volume was also significantly higher compared with the past two months.

A senior intermediary at the Guangzhou intermediary platform Yufeng Real Estate provided a set of data to Securities Times reporter. Taking the Changxing Road area in Tianhe District as an example, the number of secondhand home transactions in March was nearly the total of January and February combined.

“March is the first month after the February Spring Festival holiday, and the ‘spring thaw’ effect is quite obvious, with increased activity among just-needed buyers entering the market.” The intermediary said. “On prices, overall transaction prices are holding steady—there isn’t any particularly obvious increase or decrease. In the past two years, Guangzhou home prices have fallen quite a bit, and the cumulative listing volume is still relatively high. Raising prices impulsively could lead to buyers dropping out; right now, we’re still in the stage of digesting existing inventory (of secondhand homes).”

Securities Times reporter saw on the Beike secondhand home platform that as of now, the listing inventory for secondhand homes in Guangzhou on the platform is still a bit over 140k units. On prices, according to data from Fangtianxia Research Institute, in March the average listed price for secondhand homes in Guangzhou was 30,162 yuan per square meter, down 0.60% month over month.

Ye Guqiang, an agent at Hengjun Real Estate, said that currently, the market’s buyers’ wait-and-see sentiment remains sustained; some clients have a “wait for a bargain” mindset, leading to a slower pace of entering the market. As the policy direction becomes clearer and the market environment gradually improves, clients’ confidence is expected to gradually recover.

Liu Teyi, an agent at Desheng Real Estate, said that in March, the pace for customers with rigid purchase needs—such as those preparing to get married and those who need to enroll in school—accelerated. At the same time, some landlords’ mindset has changed because their homes have been on the market for a long time; they are willing to offer some room for price concessions in order to help their available units sell as soon as possible.

Among the成交 shown on Beike for parts of Guangzhou’s transactions in March this year, the data indicate that most listings have transaction cycles of 200 days to 300 days, and even longer.

Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, told Securities Times reporter that after the secondary home market experienced a large round of price cuts in the early stage, there is demand for stabilization and recovery. “Many listing prices have reached levels around the period before 2017, meeting the affordability range for new residents and younger people. That, in turn, helped create the transaction peak for secondhand homes in March.”

For the sustainability of this “spring thaw,” market research by the Guangzhou Real Estate Intermediary Association believes that because the market is about to enter April’s traditional off-season, combined with the fact that the previously accumulated rigid and improvement-oriented purchase demand has been partially released, prospective buyers currently generally believe they have significant comparative space when choosing listings. This extends the decision-making cycle, slows the pace of entry into the market, and makes the momentum behind transaction growth somewhat insufficient. It is expected that in April, the trading activity in the secondhand residential home market will decline somewhat.

The busiest market in about three years—whether the heat can continue depends on April

Securities Times reporter Wu Jiaming

“Today, I’m going to handle property transfer paperwork for three pairs of clients. Last month, my work team and I often worked overtime. In my view, this year’s ‘spring thaw’ real-estate market is the most ‘booming’ one in the past three years.” On April 1, when the Shenzhen Luohu District Real Estate Registration Center just opened, Securities Times reporter met Xiao Li, who was helping clients fill out information, and he said this. Xiao Li is an employee of a large real-estate agency in Shenzhen and is responsible specifically for handling related procedures such as property transfers.

The “spring thaw” in Shenzhen that just passed in March delivered a solid answer. Data from Leju’s research center show that in March, Shenzhen’s total online signing volume for both new and secondhand homes was 7,898 units, up 117% month over month, setting a highest value in nearly 11 months. Among them, total online signings for first-home presales and existing homes across the city were 2,827 units, up 118% month over month; for secondhand homes, online signing was 5,071 units, up 117% month over month. From viewing and contracting data that are closer to the real-time market, Leju’s store secondhand home viewing volume hit the highest level in nearly five years, and was also 17% higher than the peak in October 2024. The secondhand contract volume was up 244% month over month, also staying at a historical high.

At a newly listed new-home project for sale in Luohu District, Securities Times reporter saw a newly signed buyer. After two intended secondhand homes she had been considering were quickly sold, she also decisively took action and quickly secured a new home. In her view, deep price adjustments combined with a continued low interest-rate environment mean the carrying cost and long-term value of the property are being repriced.

During visits across multiple districts in Shenzhen, Securities Times reporter found that luxury homes and improvement-oriented listings have become the hotspots in the new-home market, while low total-price listings have become the main force behind secondhand home transactions. Data from Leju’s research center show that the share of secondhand home transactions priced below 3 million yuan increased from 21.8% in March last year to 31.5% in March this year. Xiao Xiaoping, director of the Shenzhen Beike Research Institute, pointed out that the group buying low total-price homes mainly consists of two categories: self-use just-needed buyers and prudent small-scale investors.

“On secondhand housing, the inquiries and transaction volume are highest for listings priced below 3 million yuan.” A senior property agency manager in the Futian Meilin area told Securities Times reporter. “Shenzhen’s secondhand homes are hot still relying on price-driven momentum; using price to exchange for volume is still the prerequisite for the rebound in secondhand home transactions. Just-needed buyers still don’t accept prices very well, and the expectations of both homeowners and buyers need to be further boosted.”

Many industry insiders believe that Shenzhen’s property market has already stepped out of a quiet-but-not-quiet offseason earlier than before the Spring Festival, and the continuity of the market heat in April is especially critical. If Shenzhen—and even other core cities—can maintain that heat, it will help improve market expectations.

“Since the end of 2025, the strong sales of several luxury home projects in Shenzhen Bay and the recent stabilization of secondhand prices in core areas have sent positive signals to the market, indicating that core areas have already completed bottoming out. If this situation can continue, the entire Shenzhen market is expected to complete bottoming out in 2026.” Zheng Shaowei, a senior research fellow at Shenzhen Centaline Research Center, pointed out in an interview.

Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, said that whether subsequent home prices can maintain the trend of stabilizing depends on three things. First, whether the transaction volume in the secondary market can be maintained—especially after low-priced listings are consumed, whether transactions for homes priced in the mid-to-high range can be activated. Second, whether low-priced secondhand home transactions can drive substitution demand for “sell the old to buy the new” and “sell the small to buy the bigger,” which would create a virtuous cycle of consumption. Third, whether new homes can achieve comprehensive high-quality at the product level and drive clients’ purchase demand based on consumption upgrades.

(Editor: Wen Jing)

Keywords:

                                                            Real estate market