Tesla Stock (TSLA) Down 27% after Q1 Delivery Miss — What Comes Next?

Tesla TSLA -5.42% ▼ is heading into Monday’s session under some pressure after its latest delivery report came in below expectations. The stock declined over 5% on Thursday to close at $360.59, marking its steepest single-day drop of the year, with shares now trading roughly 27% below their 52-week high of $499.

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While Tesla technically grew its deliveries by 6% compared to last year, the market isn’t buying the celebration. Investors are signaling that “small growth” is no longer enough to sustain Tesla’s massive valuation.

What the Delivery Numbers Really Show

Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1 2026, missing expectations of around 381,000. That was a disappointment, but it’s not the main issue investors are focusing on. What stands out more is the gap between production and deliveries. Tesla built over 408,000 vehicles during the quarter, which means more than 50,000 cars were not sold.

This is not something investors are used to seeing with Tesla. For years, demand has been strong enough to absorb production, but that balance now appears to be shifting. This change in trend is what’s starting to concern the market.

As trading resumes today, the focus is on whether this is a one-off mismatch or an early sign of slowing demand.

Analysts Remain Split Post Q1 Deliveries

Wall Street is now clearly divided. On one side, Wedbush’s five-star-rated analyst Dan Ives maintained his Buy rating and $600 price target on TSLA stock. He called the report underwhelming, noting that weak EV demand was already expected, but he still sees upside tied to Tesla’s push into AI and autonomous driving.

On the other hand, CFRA Research cut its price target to $325, citing weaker demand trends and a tougher pricing environment. Meanwhile, Truist Securities analyst William Stein lowered his price target to $400 and noted that both deliveries and energy storage came in below expectations. He also flagged rising competition and lower incentives as key risks.

What Investors Are Watching Next

Investors are now looking ahead to April 22, when Tesla will report its full quarterly earnings. This update should give a clearer picture of the company’s overall performance.

The Street expects Tesla to report a 48% year-over-year increase in earnings per share (EPS) to $0.40. Revenue is forecast to reach $22.79 billion, up 18% from the year-ago quarter.

Investors will be looking for more detail on demand trends, pricing, and margins, as well as any guidance for the months ahead.

Is TSLA a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Given the ongoing challenges, Wall Street has a Hold consensus rating on Tesla stock based on 13 Buys, 11 Holds, and eight Sells. The average TSLA stock price target of $394.36 indicates 9.4% upside potential.

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