How will the A-shares perform after the holiday? Brokerage firms analyze: the outlook is not pessimistic, stay tuned for the attack signal.

During holidays, it’s a good time to revisit and re-sort your investment logic.

According to the latest strategy views from multiple securities research institutes, although investors’ wait-and-see sentiment is currently strong, there are no bearish signals in terms of liquidity. The general trend of residents’ funds entering the market remains unchanged. Before the “shoe drops” in the geostrategic conflict, the market is expected to continue its sideways trend. Waiting patiently for the signal flare of a counterattack may be the more prudent strategy for now.

Momentum to add to positions has not weakened

In March this year, the conflict between the U.S. and Iran moved global capital markets, and A-shares saw the biggest adjustment since the so-called “reciprocal tariffs” in 2025. However, despite heightened volatility in index movements and a continued shrinking in market trading volume, Huaxing Securities’ Chief Strategist Zhang Qiyao emphasized that they have not observed any negative feedback in A-shares’ liquidity. Some absolute-return funds may have reduced positions slightly in the earlier period, but after the adjustment, the willingness to add positions became stronger.

He noted that since the recent market rally began, funds entering the market have shown a resonance effect from multiple types of capital—including insurance-type risky capital, ETFs, private funds, margin financing and securities lending (two financing), and “fixed income+” strategies. With both diversified incremental capital and the expectation of support from the “national team,” liquidity resilience is stronger. This is also one of the key reasons A-shares have performed relatively better than other global markets since March.

Among them, “fixed income+,” pension funds, and insurance funds all belong to broadly absolute-return target capital, with their equity policy “center of gravity” around 15%. Under the pressure of increased market volatility and the possibility of turning annual returns negative within the year, some funds cut positions slightly to protect returns. Meanwhile, newly deployed operational funds for insurance and pensions have continued to grow rapidly, and configuration demand in equity assets remains strong. Building positions by adding more when prices are low may be a more preferred choice.

Dong Wu Securities’ Chief Strategist Chen Gang also pointed out that, currently, there has not been any obvious outflow of micro-fund flows. On the one hand, financing funds have not fled sharply due to higher risk. As of April 3, the financing balance was 2.58 trillion yuan, only down by 25.8k yuan compared with the peak at the start of March. Moreover, the financing guarantee ratio still remains clearly higher than the level in the first half of 2025. On the other hand, although the total net value of equity-type ETFs has fallen sharply, it mainly comes from a drop in market capitalization. As of April 3, the total ETF units were 2.1 trillion units, only down by 76.08B units compared with the peak at the start of March.

He believes that the current situation is that investors are holding back more with a wait-and-see attitude, which leads to a lower trading volume. If risks ease, residents may accelerate their entry into the market. As of April 3, A-shares’ trading volume was 1.67 trillion yuan, not below the low point in December 2025, and also significantly higher than the level in the first half of 2025. At the same time, the number of new brokerage accounts in March was 4.6 million, second only to October 2024 and January 2026. Residents’ enthusiasm for entering the market is high, and has not been dampened by market adjustments caused by geopolitical risks.

Expected: volatility to continue; wait and hold

“Stay resolute and wait for the counterattack.” Liao Jingchi, Chief Strategist at Western Securities, said that given the complexity of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and the “spiral-like escalation” in substance of the conflict, global capital markets will likely remain under pressure. A-shares may continue to show a pattern of consolidation and volatility. It is expected that in the short term, the Shanghai Composite Index will operate in a “range-bound volatility, second attempt to find the bottom, support at the lower bound, and pressure at the upper bound” manner. The “right foot” of the second bottoming could gradually take shape in late April, and it may form a week-by-week scale rebound.

Based on the judgment of “geopolitical escalation drives global volatility, and A-shares second again to find the bottom,” he suggests that on the allocation side, investors should remain cautious in the near term and treat the market with range-bound volatility assumptions. When the index is approaching the “upper bound” of the new volatility range, give up greed and appropriately “sell at a relatively high level.” When the index moves to the “lower bound” of the new volatility range, overcome fear and “buy at a relatively low level” in moderation. If the Middle East situation becomes clearer after mid-April, and the structural bottom in A-shares’ mid-term horizon is formed by then, investors can actively increase allocations and expand upside flexibility.

The latest allocation recommendation from the招商证券金融工程研究 team is also “wait.” Overall, before geopolitical risks are fully cleared, the probability is higher that the market will remain in a sideways environment. Also, considering the impact of high oil prices on global economic growth, A-shares’ earnings may face pressure. However, domestic economic data are not bad at present; leading indicators such as credit are showing a rebound trend. In addition, after valuation pullbacks, releasing valuation upside room again will allow A-shares to maintain relatively strong resilience.

On the style side, regardless of whether the subsequent market plays out more optimistically or plays out a more cautious scenario like “mid-term demand is falling and the CPI-PPI scissors gap is passively narrowing,” based on historical statistics, it is not recommended in the short term to overweight aggressive products such as growth-style strategies. It is still advised to keep defense-oriented styles with stronger defensive attributes as the main allocation to reduce volatility. It is not too late to switch to an offensive approach after risks are further cleared.

Responsible editor: Zhan Shu Heng

Layout: Wang Lulu

Proofreading: Li Lingfeng