#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 4.6 Bitcoin market bearish positions have already encountered misfortune, and another sword has been raised over the bulls!

In the crypto world:
1. According to Coinglass key data, if Bitcoin falls below $65k, the liquidation strength of major CEX long positions will reach $65k! If Bitcoin breaks through $68k (already liquidated), the total short liquidation strength will also be $754 million.
2. On April 6, institutions purchased 69k BTC in Q1 2026, while retail investors sold 62k BTC.

In the market:
1. On April 6, according to ABC News: U.S. President Trump stated that if no agreement is reached, he will bomb the entire country of Iran with "almost no" room for negotiation.
2. The Iranian government responded. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghayi said, “Iran’s response will be proportional retaliation.”
3. Trump: The conflict with Iran should end within a few days. On April 6, according to Iranian media Fars News: After obtaining Iran’s permission, 15 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours.
4. On April 6, according to CME “Federal Reserve Watch”: The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, up from 0.5% last Friday. The probability of a total 25 basis point cut by June is 1.8%, down from 2.0% last Friday. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1.5%, up from 0.5% last Friday. Overall, Trump’s final ultimatum remains the market focus.

Market sentiment:
Overall cautious optimism coexists with high alertness. The upward trend remains unstable, with longs facing liquidation—beware of black swan events liquidating bulls.

Daily chart: On Monday, the price broke above $68k, liquidating short positions. The price fluctuated repeatedly, with bulls and bears in a tug-of-war. The current market price swings reflect the market’s response. Technically, the KDJ indicator shows a bullish crossover with widening divergence, and the 7-day RSI is at 57, indicating a slight bullish advantage. However, the price’s K-line center of gravity is at the $70k mark, which it has yet to break through, so there’s still a significant probability of a bearish reversal. Additionally, on Tuesday, Trump’s final deadline for Iran expires—be cautious of the price retracing and liquidating longs again!

Overall, buying activity should not be overly aggressive; consider short positions near resistance levels. Focus on the development of the situation, and risk management is the top priority.

On the upside: initial resistance is near the $70k mark; further resistance is near the upper band of the Bollinger Bands at around 71,663.

On the downside: initial support is near the April 2 low of 64,232; further support is near the April 2 low of 62,400 (in case of a black swan event).