[U.S. Economic Data] March Non-Farm Payrolls Increase by 178k Jobs, Unemployment Rate Drops to 4.3%

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in March, nonfarm payrolls added 178k jobs, and the unemployment rate eased to 4.3%.

Employment changes by industry:

• Health care: Added 76k jobs (with part of the reason being that after a doctors’ strike ended, some returned to their positions)
• Construction: Added 26k jobs
• Transportation and warehousing: Added 21k jobs (mainly from express delivery and messenger services)
• Social assistance industry: Added 14k jobs

Industries with employment declines:

• Federal government: Continued to shrink, down 18k people. Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment has fallen by 355k
• Financial activities: Down 15k people

Data revisions:

• January: Revised up from the initial +126k to +160k
• February: Revised down from -92k to -133k

Report download

$1Below are the April 1, 2026 data===

March ADP employment increased by 62k, beating expectations

Dubbed the “mini nonfarm,” U.S. March ADP employment increased by 62k jobs, above expectations of 40k. The February figure was revised from 63k to 66,000 jobs.

$1Below are the March 31, 2026 data===

U.S. February JOLTS job openings fell back to 6.882 million, below expectations | March Conference Board consumer confidence rose to 91.8, beating expectations

U.S. February JOLTS job openings fell from January’s 7.24 million to 178k, slightly below market expectations of 6.89 million.

U.S. March MNI Chicago PMI fell from 57.7 in February to 52.8, far below the market forecast of 55. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence rose from 91 in February to 91.8 in the latest reading, far above the market estimate of 87.9.

U.S. FHFA house price index for January rose 0.1% month over month, in line with expectations; the prior reading was 0.3%.

$1Below are the March 19, 2026 data===

U.S. February PPI rose 3.4% year over year, above expectations of 2.9%. On a monthly basis, it rose 0.7%, also above the market forecast of 0.5%. February core PPI rose 3.9% year over year, above expectations of 3.7%, and rose 0.5% month over month, also above the forecast of 0.3%.

$1Below are the March 13, 2026 data===

The U.S. reported a revised value for fourth-quarter GDP of 0.7%, below the estimated 1.4%, with the government shutdown in October being a major factor weighing down GDP growth.

The U.S. January PCE price index fell slightly from 2.9% in December to 2.8% year over year, below market expectations of 2.9%; it rose 0.3% month over month, in line with expectations. Over the same period, the core PCE price index rose from 3.0% in December to 3.1% year over year, matching market expectations, and rose 0.4% month over month, also in line with expectations.

U.S. January personal income rose 0.4% month over month, below expectations of 0.5%. Personal spending rose 0.4% over the same period, slightly higher than the expected 0.3%.

The University of Michigan’s initial reading of U.S. consumer sentiment for March was 55.5, above the forecast 55. The initial one-year inflation expectation was 3.6%, higher than the forecast and the prior reading of 3.4%.

$1Below are the March 12, 2026 data===

In the week ending March 7, the number of people receiving unemployment benefits for first-time filers was 213k, below the market expectation of 215k. The prior figure of 213k was revised to 214k. In the week ending February 28, the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits was 1.85 million, down 21k from the previous week, in line with market expectations.

In the week ending March 7, the number of people receiving unemployment benefits for first-time filers was 213k, below the market expectation of 215k. The prior figure of 213,000 was revised to 214,000. In the week ending February 28, the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits was 1.85 million, down 21,000 from the previous week, in line with market expectations.

U.S. January housing starts rose 7.2% month over month to 76k units, exceeding the market forecast of 1.34 million units. Building permits fell from 26k units in December to 21k units, below expectations of 1.42 million.

$1Below are the March 11, 2026 data===

U.S. February inflation data was entirely in line with expectations. The overall CPI maintained a 2.4% year-over-year increase. The month-over-month increase rose 0.1 percentage point to 0.3%. Core CPI maintained a 2.5% year-over-year increase, but the month-over-month increase fell 0.1 percentage point to 0.2%.

$1Below are the March 6, 2026 data===

U.S. February nonfarm payrolls fell sharply by 92k, far below expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%

U.S. February nonfarm payroll employment decreased by 92k, far below expectations for an increase of 55k. January was revised down from 130k to 126k. The unemployment rate in February was 4.4%, above expectations and January’s 4.3%. In addition, the total number of nonfarm payroll jobs for December last year and January was revised down by 69k.

U.S. employment report download

$1Below are the March 5, 2026 data===

U.S. companies laid off 55% fewer employees in February month over month to 48k | The number of people filing for first-time unemployment benefits last week stayed at 213,000, below expectations

Data from the human resources firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that the number of layoffs announced by U.S. companies in February fell 55% month over month to 48,307 people, and was also down 72% year over year.

Andy Challenger, Chief Revenue Officer at the firm, said the decline in February layoffs eased the high layoff plans that had been in place since the start of the year. As the United States becomes involved in the Iran war, more layoff plans may emerge by the end of the first quarter, because companies would tighten their belts amid uncertainty and rising costs.”

The layoffs in the technology sector ranked first among all industries at 11k. In addition, the education sector also laid off 5,417 people in February.

Meanwhile, the number of people filing for first-time unemployment benefits in the U.S. last week held at 213k, below the expected 215k. The number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits was 14k, above the expected 18k and the prior reading of 355k.

$1Below are the March 4, 2026 data===

The U.S. released its February ADP data, widely referred to as the “mini nonfarm.” In the period, employment increased by 62,000, above the expected 50k. January’s data was revised from 22k to 11k.

$1Below are the February 25, 2026 data===

There are signs that U.S. inflation expectations are warming up. The newly released January PPI rose 2.9% year over year, above expectations of 2.6%, and rose 0.5% month over month, also above the market expectation of 0.3%. Over the same period, core PPI rose 3.6% year over year, above December’s 3.3% and above expectations.

$1Below are the February 24, 2026 data===

U.S. December FHFA house price index rose 0.1% month over month, below expectations

The U.S. December FHFA house price index rose 0.1% month over month, below expectations of 0.3%. The prior reading was revised from 0.6% up to 0.7%. In addition, the U.S. December S&P/CS 20-city adjusted house price index rose 1.38% year over year, roughly in line with market expectations. The prior reading was revised from 1.39% to 1.42%. It rose 0.47% month over month, above the expected 0.3%; the prior reading was revised from 0.47% to 0.53%.

$1Below are the February 20, 2026 data===

U.S. fourth-quarter GDP forecast rises only 1.4% | PCE price index rises 0.4% month over month, beating expectations

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s inflation reference indicator showed that the PCE price index in December was above market expectations. Overall PCE rose 0.4% month over month, above the expected 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, it rose 2.9%, higher than the expected 2.8%. In the same period, the core PCE price index rose 0.4% month over month, also above the expected 0.3%. Core PCE rose 3% year over year, higher than the expected 2.9%.

The U.S. fourth-quarter GDP forecast for last year was 1.4%, below the market’s 2.8% expectation. Fourth-quarter GDP growth was mainly driven by increases in consumer spending and investment; however, those gains were offset by reduced government spending and exports.

$1Below are the February 19, 2026 data===

U.S. initial jobless claims fall to 206k, below expectations | December trade deficit widens to $70.3 billion; full-year is one of the largest deficits since 1960

In the week ending February 14, the number of initial unemployment benefit claims in the U.S. was 206k, below the market expectation of 225k. The prior figure of 227k was revised to 229k. In the week ending February 7, the number of continuing unemployment benefit claims in the U.S. was 15k, up 17k from the previous week; the market expectation was 1.86 million.

In addition, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported that in December, the trade deficit in goods and services expanded to $70.3 billion from the previous month. The full-year trade deficit totaled $901.5 billion, still one of the largest deficits since records began in 1960. The U.S. recorded a $903.5 billion deficit in 2024.

$1Below are the February 13, 2026 data===

U.S. January CPI rises 2.4% year over year, below expectations

The U.S. reported that January CPI rose 2.4% year over year, below the market forecast of 2.5%. It rose 0.2% month over month, also below the market expectation of 0.3%. Core CPI rose 2.5% year over year, in line with expectations, and rose 0.3% month over month, also matching market expectations.

$1Below are the February 11, 2026 data===

U.S. unemployment rate fell from 4.4% in December to 4.3%, below expectations of 4.4%. In the period, nonfarm payroll employment added 130k jobs, above expectations of 65k. The prior figure was revised up to 48k.

Report download

It’s worth noting that the private sector added as many as 172k jobs, but because government departments reduced 42k jobs, the net increase was only 130k.

A large-scale plan for civil servants to leave that was introduced in the early stage of President Trump’s second term aims to allow employees who do not want to continue working under the Trump administration, or who do not want to accept “return to office” requirements, or who fear being forced to be laid off in the future, to leave in a more moderate manner. During the next 6 to 8 months, they will still receive wages and benefits. The relevant list was officially removed from the federal payroll roster in January.

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$1Below are the February 7, 2026 data===

U.S. December import price index rose 0.1% month over month, in line with expectations | December export price index rose 0.3% month over month, above expectations

The ADP release showed that in the one week ending January 24, companies added 6,500 jobs. The U.S. December import price index rose 0.1% month over month, in line with expectations. Over the same period, the export price index rose 0.3% month over month, above expectations of 0.1%.

U.S. November business inventories rose 0.1% month over month, below expectations of 0.3% and the prior reading of 0.2%.

$1Below are the February 6, 2026 data===

The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment reading rises to 57.3, above expectations; one-year inflation expectations fall to 3.5%, a 13-month low

The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment reading for February was 57.3, the highest in half a year, above the forecast 55, with the prior reading of 56.4. The initial one-year inflation expectations reading was 3.5%, below expectations and the prior reading of 4%, and set a new 13-month low. The initial five-year inflation expectations reading was 3.4%, slightly above the forecast and the prior reading of 3.3%.

$1Below are the February 5, 2026 data===

U.S. companies laid off 108k people in January alone; up sharply more than doubled month over month | The number of people filing for first-time unemployment benefits rose to 231k last week, above expectations

Data from the human resources firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that the number of layoffs announced by U.S. companies in January rose sharply by more than 2 times month over month to 108k people. On an annual basis, it also increased by nearly 1.2 times. The number of people filing for first-time unemployment benefits last week was also far higher than market expectations.

The firm said that the number of layoffs in January was the highest for the same period since 2009. Andy Challenger, the firm’s Chief Revenue Officer, said that the first quarter typically sees a large number of layoffs, but the high level in January suggests that related plans were already set by the end of 2025, reflecting that employers are not optimistic about prospects before 2026.

Layoffs in the transportation and logistics industry ranked first among all industries, at 31k people. This was mainly due to UPS (U.S.: UPS) and Amazon (U.S.: AMZN) ending their partnership and announcing that they would lay off 30k people. In addition, in January, the technology sector also laid off more than 22k people, most of which came from Amazon. Earlier, the company announced that it would lay off 16k people to reorganize its management structure.

Meanwhile, the number of people filing for first-time unemployment benefits in the U.S. last week rose from 209k to 231k, above the expected 212k. The number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits was 126k, below the expected 1.85 million and the prior reading of 160k.

$1Below are the February 4, 2026 data===

ADP added 22k in December, below expectations. U.S. mortgage loan applications fell 8.9% last week

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said the 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell from 6.24% to 6.21%. Mortgage loan applications fell 8.9% last week.

The U.S. released its December ADP data, widely referred to as the “mini nonfarm.” In the period, employment increased by 22k jobs, below the expected 45k.

$1Below are the January 31, 2026 data===

January S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI final rises to 52.4

January S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI final was 52.4, above the initial reading of 51.9. Meanwhile, the U.S. January ISM Manufacturing Index was 52.6, above the forecast 48.5, and the prior reading was 47.9. Among components, the sales prices index was 59, and new orders surged from the revised 47.4 to 57.1. Employment was 48.1, all higher than the data from December last year.

$1Below are the January 30, 2026 data===

U.S. December PPI rose 0.5% month over month, above expectations | December core PPI rose 0.7% month over month

U.S. December PPI rose 0.5% month over month, above expectations of 0.2%. Core PPI rose 0.7% month over month, also above expectations of 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, December PPI rose 3%, above expectations of 2.8%; core PPI rose 3.3%, above expectations of 2.9%.

$1Below are the January 29, 2026 data===

U.S. initial jobless claims fall to 209k last week, below expectations | U.S. November factory orders rise 2.7% month over month, beating expectations

U.S. initial jobless claims fell from 210k to 209k last week, below the forecast 205k. The number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits was 92k, below expectations of 133k and the prior reading of 62k.

The U.S. November trade deficit widened from October’s $29.2 billion to $56.8 billion, far above the forecast $44.5 billion. U.S. November exports fell 3.6% month over month, a larger decline than the forecast 1.7%; the prior reading was revised up to a rise of 3%.

U.S. November imports rose 5% month over month, far above the forecast 2.3%. U.S. November factory orders rose 2.7% month over month, exceeding the forecast 1.6%; October was a decline of 1.3%.

$1Below are the January 27, 2026 data===

U.S. consumer confidence is at its lowest level in more than 11 years

The U.S. Economic Advisory Council said that the January consumer confidence index plunged from 94.2 to 84.5, below the forecast 91, hitting a level not seen in more than 11 years.

The November FHFA house price index rose 0.6%, above the upside of 0.3%, with the prior reading at 0.4%.

The S&P CS 20-city index rose 1.39% year over year, above the forecast increase of 1.2%; the prior reading was a rise of 1.32%.

$1Below are the January 23, 2026 data===

U.S. January S&P manufacturing PMI rebounds to 51.9 | January University of Michigan consumer confidence index revised up to 56.4; one-year inflation forecast revised down to 4%

U.S. January S&P manufacturing PMI was 51.9, slightly below the market expectation of 52, but higher than December’s 51.8. The services PMI in the same period remained 52.5, and was also below the forecast 52.9.

The University of Michigan consumer confidence index for January, final reading, was revised up from the initial reading of 54 to 56.4. The final one-year inflation forecast was revised down from the initial reading of 4.2% to 4%.

$1Below are the January 22, 2026 data===

PCE inflation fully meets expectations, with only 0.2% month over month. Third-quarter GDP revised up to 4.4% | Initial jobless claims last week tick up to 200k

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s inflation reference indicator showed that in November, the PCE price index fully met expectations. Overall PCE rose 0.2% month over month and 2.8% year over year. The core PCE price index rose 0.2% month over month and 2.8% year over year.

The U.S. third-quarter GDP revised value rose from the original 4.3% to 4.4%.

Initial jobless claims last week rose slightly from 199k from the previous week to 200k, below the market expectation of 210k. The number of continuing claims for the previous week fell to 62k, below the forecast 40k.

$1Below are the January 20, 2026 data===

ADP: U.S. adds 80,000 jobs in one week

The U.S. ADP reported that in the four weeks ending December 27, companies added an average of 8,000 jobs per week.

$1Below are the January 15, 2026 data===

U.S. initial jobless claims fall back to 198k

U.S. initial jobless claims fell from 207k to 198k last week, below the forecast 215,000. Continuing unemployment benefit claims were 63k, below expectations of 6.88M and the prior reading of 6.88M.

The U.S. January New York State manufacturing index rose from -3.7 in December last year to 7.7, above the market forecast of 1.

$1Below are the January 14, 2026 data===

The U.S. reported that November PPI rose 3% year over year, above the market forecast of 2.7%. It rose 0.2% month over month, in line with expectations. In the same period, core CPI rose 3.5% year over year, also above the forecast 2.9%; month over month it was flat, which was below expectations by 0.2%.

U.S. November retail sales rose 0.6% month over month, above the forecast 0.5%.

$1Below are the January 13, 2026 data===

U.S. December core CPI rises 0.2% month over month, below expectations

The U.S. reported that December CPI rose 2.7% year over year, in line with market expectations; it rose 0.3% month over month, also in line with expectations. Core CPI rose 2.6% year over year, below the forecast 2.7%; it rose 0.2% month over month, below expectations of 0.3%.

$1Below are the January 9, 2026 data===

U.S. December unemployment rate falls from 4.6% in October to 4.4%

The U.S. December unemployment rate fell from 4.6% in October to 4.4%, below the forecast 4.5%. In the period, nonfarm payroll employment added 50k jobs, below expectations of 70k, and the prior reading was revised down to 56k.

The University of Michigan consumer confidence index for January rose from 52.9 in December last year to 54, above the market expectation of 53.5.

$1Below are the January 8, 2026 data===

U.S. initial jobless claims rise to 208k last week

U.S. initial jobless claims rose from 200k to 208k last week, below the forecast 212k. Continuing unemployment benefit claims were 213k, above the forecast 1.90 million and the prior reading of 215k.

U.S. October trade deficit narrowed significantly to $29.4 billion, below the market expectation of $58.7 billion. The prior reading was $48.1 billion.

Data from the human resources firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that the number of layoffs announced by U.S. companies in December decreased 50% month over month to 35k people, and fell 8% year over year.

The firm said that layoffs across the whole year reached 213k, up 58% year over year, the highest since 2020. However, the number of layoff plan announcements made in December this year by Andy Challenger was the lowest for the full year. Although December is usually a slow season, taking into account the increase in hiring plans, it reflects a positive signal after the wave of layoffs.

Layoffs in government departments ranked first among industries, at 308k people, which surged 7-fold year over year, mainly concentrated in the federal government. However, the wave of layoffs was concentrated in the first quarter of this year. Over the nine months from the second quarter to the fourth quarter, the number of government layoffs was less than 29k.

Among private companies, the technology sector had the largest number of layoffs last year at 154k, up 15% year over year. The firm noted that over the past decade, excessive hiring plus other factors, combined with the pace of artificial intelligence (AI) transformation far exceeding that of other industries, led the industry into a wave of unemployment

$1Below are the January 7, 2026 data===

The U.S. released its December ADP data, widely referred to as the “mini nonfarm.” In the period, employment increased by 41k jobs, below the expected 50k. November’s data was revised from a decline of 32k to 29,000.

$1Below are the January 5, 2026 data===

U.S. December ISM manufacturing index falls short of expectations

The U.S. December ISM manufacturing index was 47.9, below the forecast 48.4, and the prior reading was 48.2. The new orders index was 47.7, the employment index was 44.9, and the prices index was 58.5.