International Energy Agency warns: Countries should not stockpile fuel during Iran war; April's lost crude oil could double.

The head of the International Energy Agency warned that during the energy crisis triggered by a U.S.-Israel war against Iran, countries must curb their urge to stockpile oil and fuel. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, supplies are expected to fall further.

Fateh Birool said: “I urge all countries not to implement export bans or restrictive measures. The global oil market is in a very bad situation right now. Their trading partners, allies, and neighboring countries will be affected as a result.”

Birool said that “Asian major countries that have large oil refineries” should reconsider any bans. “If these countries continue to restrict exports or completely prohibit them, the impact on Asian markets will be enormous.”

He called on countries to avoid issuing bans—possibly targeting the United States—as rumors circulate that the U.S. could prohibit the export of refined fuel, with gasoline prices breaking above $4 per gallon and California facing a threat of jet fuel shortages. So far, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has only ruled out the possibility of banning crude oil exports.

Birool said that some countries have already been stockpiling energy, which weakens the impact of the International Energy Agency’s actions. To stabilize the market during the current conflict, the International Energy Agency released 400 million barrels of crude oil and fuel from emergency reserves.

He said: “Unfortunately, as we coordinate the release of oil stockpiles, we see some countries increasing existing inventories. They are hoarding it. This doesn’t help. In my view, now is the time for all countries to prove that they are responsible members of the international community.”

According to the latest weekly report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, although the United States is the largest contributor to the IEA plan, U.S. inventories are up 5% year on year.

So far, the energy crisis has been felt most acutely in Asia, where some countries have begun rationing fuel in fixed quantities and reducing the number of workdays each week.

Although diesel and jet fuel prices have surged sharply in the West, Birool said, “Europe is not currently experiencing any real shortage of jet fuel or diesel,” but he added that if transportation disruptions in the Middle East continue, the situation could change in the coming weeks.

As the head of the International Energy Agency, Birool has been at the center of discussions on how to respond to the crisis. He warned that if the Strait of Hormuz cannot be reopened to shipping, “then the amount of crude oil and (refined) products we will lose in April will be twice that of March.” In normal times, one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas is transported through this waterway, but because Iran has threatened to fire on ships, the waterway is currently almost shut.

He warned that even if the conflict ends, it will take a long time to restore normal conditions.

“Every day, every hour, we are tracking the status of all key energy assets in the region,” he said, referring to oil and gas fields, pipelines, refineries, and LNG terminals. “At present, 72 energy facilities have been damaged, and one-third of them have suffered serious or very serious damage,” he added.

Birool praised Saudi Arabia for its rapid response to the crisis. The country rerouted more than two-thirds of its oil exports to the Red Sea via an oil pipeline, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

He said that “Saudi Arabia’s top authorities” assured him that this critical pipeline “is well protected,” but he noted that if this route is successfully attacked, it would have “extremely terrible consequences” for the global economy.

Birool also said that the current crisis will reshape the world’s energy system, just like the crises of the 1970s and the crisis sparked by the outbreak of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. He pointed out that the oil crisis of the 1970s gave rise to a boom in nuclear power, a leap in the efficiency of car engines, and accelerated the issuance of oil and gas licenses in Britain’s North Sea.

He predicted that the current crisis will trigger a new round of nuclear power revival, a boom in electric vehicles, and further development of renewable energy, while also causing some countries to burn more coal.

But he said that after experiencing two energy shocks within four years, the natural gas industry—long portraying itself as a reliable supplier—will “need to work hard to reshape its reputation.”

Birool also warned that the UK will not be able to recreate its oil boom. “Most of the oil that can be produced in a cost-effective way has already been extracted,” he said. “At the time, the UK had 5% of the world’s oil and gas. Today, that proportion is about 0.7%.”

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责任编辑：陈钰嘉