The bear market has finally seen a significant positive development: the US CLARITY Act is highly likely to pass.

The importance of this bill is actually much greater than the previous genius bill. Currently, the market generally expects it to be implemented sometime between mid-April and May.

According to prediction markets, Polymarket assigns a 72% probability to its passage. This is no longer just an expectation but is being actively traded as a high-probability event.

Once it is actually passed, exchanges like Binance will have the opportunity to operate legally and register officially in the US. This means they can openly serve US domestic users and handle US-based funds.

If the bill clearly states that most digital assets are no longer under SEC jurisdiction, it would effectively remove the biggest uncertainty from the past.

For institutions, the biggest issue has never been profitability but whether they can enter compliantly. Once the rules are clarified, channels for US domestic and large institutional funds to enter will open.

Although we are still in a bear market and institutional funds may not flow in immediately even if the bill passes, at least the barriers preventing compliant institutional capital from entering have been removed. This is a significant positive development.