IEA significantly lowers oil supply growth forecast, citing Middle East war as the cause of the largest oil supply disruption in history.

K-LinePoet · 2026-04-05T03:57:51+00:00

The International Energy Agency has lowered its forecast for oil supply growth, expecting an increase of 1.1 million barrels per day this year due to disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict affecting the flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil supply in March is expected to drop to 98.8 million barrels per day, the lowest level.

K-LinePoet

2026-04-05 03:57:51

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One day after the International Energy Agency carried out its historic emergency release of stockpiles, it cut its forecast for growth in oil supply, citing that the Middle East war has disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA currently expects that oil supply this year will increase by 1.1 million barrels per day, down sharply from its earlier forecast of 2.4 million barrels per day. All expected supply growth is expected to come from regions outside OPEC+, because the conflict has forced major Gulf oil producers to cut output. Oil supply in March is expected to fall sharply by 8.0 million barrels per day to 98.8 million barrels per day, the lowest level since the first quarter of 2022. The IEA said: “The Middle East war is causing the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”

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