Recently, I noticed that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has fallen again. Yesterday it dropped to 3.999%, reaching a new low in nearly three months. This decline isn’t particularly large this time either—down 1.7 basis points—but judging from the trend, market sentiment has indeed been changing.

To put it simply, investors are starting to worry about the economic outlook, so they’re moving toward safe-haven assets. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond—this kind of indicator—is essentially a barometer of market sentiment: the more it falls, the more cautious everyone is about the outlook ahead. This wave of decline should also reflect a shift in that mindset.

However, when looking at the three-month cycle, the fact that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has fallen to this level is definitely worth paying attention to. If it keeps moving lower, it could also drive volatility in other assets.